Lay Over 4.5 Goals

Lay Over 4.5 Goals

Welcome back to Trading the Market! In this video, we're introducing a game-changing strategy that's about to revolutionize your betting game – laying over 4.5 goals on the Betfair Exchange. But this isn't just any strategy; it's a set-and-forget method that could potentially maximize your profits without constant monitoring or stressful decision-making.

Join us as we unravel the secrets behind laying over 4.5 goals, explaining how it works, and why you need to add this to your trading portfolio. We'll break down the mechanics of the strategy and showcase three months worth of results, demonstrating its effectiveness and potential for profitability.

Discover how to filter viable selections using key criteria such as Attack and Defense relevance and the Magic Number, and learn how to apply this strategy on the exchange to capitalize on matches with a higher likelihood of fewer goals being scored.

With a remarkable strike rate of 99.35% on over 201 trades, this Trading the Market original strategy is poised to redefine how you approach betting. Don't miss out on this opportunity to revolutionize your betting approach and maximize your gains.

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[TradingTheMarket]

I am only here to help.
Trolls will be removed.
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[HrhFish]

Treat the liability in big lay prices as the stake. If the lay is 7.2 for example and you only want to risk £100 you would stake £16 which would be a liability of £99.20. An indicator for a game with low number of goals is the 0-0 odds at the start of the game. If there is low odds of 10.0 and under lower the better I have seen odds as low as 6.00. I prefer to do odds on lays as you risk less than the amount you stake. I like to look for the boring 0-0 games with my portfolio. Games that are 0-0 at half time are usually the best to analyze with a low number of shots on target. It is profitable to trade on events that are going to stay the same rather than predicting what is going to happen if you get me.

[dudleyk]

i know this is a set and forget strategy. but would it be prudent to wait till a couple of goals have gone in possibly odds, will shorten and liability will be less ?

[glasscannon]

hi, are there specific leagues you would look to avoid? EG, on 23rd March there are LOADS showing after using the filters, what else would you look for to reduce the amount? Thanks in advance :)

[laurencedamazer]

Great video. One comment. When you filter by colour you can choose the No Fill option instead of colour.
. That picks all items in the column that are not "Green"

[skript]

How do you choose which numbers you pick for the attack defense and magic number? I mean why did you use lower/higher ones than the excel sheet recommend?(-7/7 -3.5/3.5) Does it depend on how many games fit in the criteria?

[waynewoodger]

Strategy looks great but Confused on the guide stats! On the website the guide video to the Football Stats Grid says look for values on attacking relevance of outside -7 to 7 & on Marks Magic number of outside 3 & -3 but on this video it seems to be between those numbers that you are looking for. Which is it pls?

[cheshirered]

2 losses across 200 games over 5 months returning nearly £28, 000 is superb. Congratulations!

[gavinsmith]

Hi there, strategy looks good, but how far in advance of the game can you get those kind of amounts matched as I've looked today and some of the lesser games have low amounts of liquidity

[djordjedostanic]

What's ur criteria for Relevance 2 and MN? like threshold, the golden middle, or something like that,

[martj]

Gave this a run yesterday. 6 games traded. 100% strike rate. Fantastic content as always guys 👍

[sportspriceanalysis]

Match selection is crucial here. I think it can work but blindly backing any game could be problematic. I would look for value in the price also. So in the example at 6:40 the odds are 4.8 to lay. In the EPL (going back 4 seasons) 17% of games end up over 4.5, converted to odds thats 5.88 so anything under this is good. In fact odds of 4.8 implies that 20.8% of games in the EPL finish >4.5 which the historic data doesnt support.

[christillyer]

Interesting, what i really liked this time is you showed us exactly the filters to use. I will paper trade for the remainder of the year and will post the results. Hoping for the same or simular strike rate. Dont think i will better 100% though, unless i use accounting practice used by BTC ha.

[MNu]

Is there any additional filters? I just took a random weekend from the past and the hit rate is nowhere near 98%

[MsPriyaLal]

have you ever considered applying this with a cash out at 80 minutes or 85 minutes. This would increase strike rate and last minute goals..

[gusesc]

Hello, Thanks for sharing knowledge, I don't understand why sometimes they do Lay to Over and other times Back to Under, be it 2.5 or 3.5 or 4.5. What benefit does each one have or when do I use each one. I am from Argentina, it is done with a translator, sorry for the errors. Thank you very much for the valuable content you offer.

[paulbibby]

Brilliant video James with fantastic results! Thank you to you and all the team at TTM for your generosity in sharing your strategies - I don't know anyone else who is doing this and articulating things so clearly.
Please can I check, is one of the criteria to use the strategy only on leagues above 80% for under 4.5 goals? Or doesn't this matter if you are sticking to the AvD, Magic #, and odds <10.0 criteria?
Thanks again!

[daxter]

Interesting strategy and one I will test, but what happened to using stakes that are realistic (such as in your other videos). That was always welcome and refreshing versus most of the dross on YouTube. ROI is ROI at the end of the day, but risking potentially £800+ on a single game is not reflective of most people's situation I would think. That aside, great video and thanks for sharing. I'm guessing the results would be significantly impacted if even just 1-2 of those matches with 1 goal to failure landed, but 3 months is a decent sample size

[unfilteredfitnessat]

Good vid - will be interesting to follow the results for a month myself. Probably sod's law stepping in but used the sheet and filtered to get the games for today (7 April) using the tighter criteria that it looks like the vid used ( +- 4 for attacking and +- 10 for the Magic Number). Threw up 11 selections... 3 games had 4 goals and 2 actually lost! End result using £150 stakes would have been a £650 loss!

Variance is a thing of course, so will keep an eye on this as it looks awesome overall. Certainly, now we are in April the Europe leagues do seem to have more goals in them. A 3.5MG strategy I have always has a worse SR in April and May....

[andybarry]

nice video again - i have a question - is it possible to download the excel betting tracker? I'd like to be more professional about my betting and would like to document all my bets. Cheers