A US recession is a question of when, not if: Nuveen CIO

Nuveen CIO Saira Malik joins Catalysts to give an overview of the current state of the economy and discuss whether the US is headed toward a recession.
Malik points to two areas where she's the most concerned: the consumer and the jobs market. She points to weak retail sales data alongside mixed employment numbers and emphasizes that unemployment claims are almost at cycle highs.
"I think consumer and employment goes together. When you feel secure in your job, you tend to spend more. We're seeing both of those start to break down. My view is that a recession is a when, not an if," she explains.
She believes that the US is "slowly approaching" a recession, most likely between the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of 2025. She explains, "the resilience of this economy in the face of higher interest rates and inflation has been surprising... I think consumers are showing more signs of slowing than the employment market, and that slow decline will be eventually what takes us into that recession." She notes that even if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, it won't be enough to "stave off any form of a recession."
Malik states that the Fed is in a "tough spot" as it balances the right time to cut without reaccelerating inflation. She does not believe that the US will reach the Fed's 2% inflation target in 2024, but there is a chance it will in 2025. She adds: "I think the consensus view that somehow we get through this period of high rates, high inflation, and we just have this beautiful soft landing is kind of a tough one. The markets (^DJI, ^IXIC, ^GSPC) are pricing that in. That's where I think the challenge is..."
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[vdotptq]

I appreciate that she admitted that it’s difficult to call short term, but long term AI has staying power. I agree on both counts.

[timjohnshort]

This Nuveen CIO is right on with her assessments!

[williambudd]

Recession risk is now in the rear view mirror. It was a risk earlier but now its not in the cards. Now the risk is that the fed will wait to long to lower rates, which could cause some deflation with economic slowing but a full blown recession is just not likely as long as the fed continues to watch the job market, as they have been, they can prevent a recession before it takes hold should that be necessary. People don’t seem to understand that the fed brought inflation under control without resorting to a recesson which is a modern economic innovation. Its done. It happened. The risk is behind us.

[timjohnshort]

Yes, 2% is going to happen, just at the heels of a recession.

[georgemaximus]

This economy isn’t going to recession until all the bears are no longer around talking about recession. The stock market probably will rip even higher every time bears talk about recession. That’s how the market has been behaving.

[Freedomsonwildanimal]

RECESSION SHMESSION! HOME PRICES ARE 📈

[williambudd]

Being an economist is a lot like being a weather forecaster. There are a few good ones but most don’t know what they are talking about. So unless someone is interviewing a fed economist, skip the sales pitch and move on.