The 25% ‘Trump Recession’ Has Started - What You Must Know

4 out of 5 employers who post on ZipRecruiter get a quality candidate within the first day. Let's talk about the chance of Recession in 2025 and what you can do about it - Add me on Instagram: GPStephan

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THE 2025 RECESSION:
Even though this is defined as “two consecutive quarters of declining GDP” - more than likely, you won’t know you’re in a recession until it’s already too late. Throughout the last 6 recessions that have been confirmed, there is an average lag time of 7.3 MONTHS between the time a recession takes place and the time it’s actually announced. This means, if we’re in a recession right now, the “mainstream media” won’t be telling you about it until November.

For a recession to be “Confirmed,” it needs to be announced by The National Bureau of Economic Research who wants to see “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in production, employment, real income, and other indicators.”

This is why you have investment banks, like Goldman Sachs, issuing their warnings - ahead of time - saying that they might see a recession on the horizon, which “reflects their lower growth baseline, the sharp recent deterioration in household and business confidence, and statements from White House officials indicating greater willingness to tolerate near-term economic weakness in pursuit of their policies.”

Facts: Since the 1940’s, we’ve seen 12 recessions - the longest lasting 18 months, the shortest being 2 months during the 2020 shutdown - and, since 1900, the average recession tends to last about 10 months.

THE STOCK MARKET:
During the past 11 recessions, it was found that “Stocks have tended to peak eight months prior to a recession and declined by approximately 30%, on average.” From 1869 to 2018, there have been a total of 16 recessions that had POSITIVE stock market returns - and of those positive recessions, the market went UP by an average of 9.8%, during a time that GDP declined by 3%. This means half had no correlation whatsoever with lower stock values. Even when you include the 2020 downturn., the market still went up by 1.7%, on average.

Even though stocks were - on average - positive from the start to END of a recession - that doesn’t mean there weren’t rather significant drops in between. The typical drawdown was 29.2%, before prices eventually recovered. From there, after the END of the recession - it was found that - in just one year, “you would have made money in 85% of the cases. And after 3 years, you would have been in the green in 100% of the time!”

HOUSING PRICES:
Home prices have been one of the best hedges against a recession, having increased in price nearly each and every year, regardless of the economy. The same phenomenon also occurs with rents: nationally, rents have stayed the exact same, or even continues going higher, since fewer people can qualify to buy a house.

All of that is to say that housing prices are generally a lot less volatile since - people take a long time to move, homeowners are reluctant to make changes during times of economic uncertainty, and - outside of certain local markets, our most likely outcome is that we continue to see more of the same. As Ben Carlson points out, home prices have only declined in 7 years (since 1950) total, with 5 of those years in response to the subprime mortgage crisis of 2008, of which - isn’t a concern anymore.

WHAT YOU CAN DO:
Since the 1940s, there has been a total of 48 stock market corrections of at least 10%, which works out to one every 20 months - but only 12 fell into bear market territory. From where we stand today, based on data since 2008, with the exception of 2 times, stocks were higher a year later…and 60% of the time, stocks had recovered within just three months.

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*Some of the links and other products that appear on this video are from companies which Graham Stephan will earn an affiliate commission or referral bonus. Graham Stephan is part of an affiliate network and receives compensation for sending traffic to partner sites. The content in this video is accurate as of the posting date. Some of the offers mentioned may no longer be available. This is not investment advice.

[KentWhitemore-cc]

The U.S. economy relies on ongoing credit and debt generation for sustenance. The Federal Reserve is expected to increase the money supply, leading to further debt accumulation for the average American. Meanwhile, foreign nations continue to desire the U.S. dollar, despite their own economies facing significant challenges, some even worse than that of the U.S. This situation raises concerns about who will ultimately bear the consequences of these economic dynamics.

[ToddBradshaw]

thank you for sharing such insightful content My main concern is how to survive all of these financial and political crises, especially in light of the US political power scuffle. The government has really made things more difficult for its citizens, but I'm grateful to the universe that I'm favored with $40k every month! all thanks to Avery Livingston mentorship I can now give back to the locals in my community and also support family without waiting for the government.

[oldtownscouts]

I want everyone that voted for this to remember that he said he was going to do this for months before the election, not to mention all the federal layoffs.

[FireOElijahMC]

Was stuck in the same loop for years. I read The Architect of Riches and something in my mind finally clicked. I see money differently now.

[shawnfarley]

This is a great example of why it’s good to be debt free

[Dericoshaughnessy]

Stay employed, good advice no matter what!!!

[jaredmartin]

Aliens could invade Earth and this guy would still be saying buy.

[AdamB]

Has anyone else felt like we were in a recession for the past four years? Real estate is through the roof, food is far more expensive, and inflation is hitting all of us hard. The news can tell us whatever they want. But we can see the world in front of our faces. It has not been good for years.

[drgta]

I'm going to need a 25% pay raise.

[JS-vlgd]

So I may lose my job and chances are that I'm going to burn through all my savings while I compete fiercely against all of the other desperate and unemployed people, but on the bright side the prices of homes may come down, rents may stay the same or even go up, plus the stock market will likely rebound. If you're a billionarie, you probably knew all of this chaos was going to happen, you saved some cash and purchase rental property to squeeze a lot of us, poor suckers, out of our hard-earned money! The tale of two cities. It was the worst of times, it was the best of times.

[MuahMan]

For me it's been a recession since 2022 when the price of literally everything doubled.

[CzarrIV]

I had cancer 2023-2024 and my savings were drained from not working for 10 months. It’s been impossible to get back up to a fraction of what I had before.

[traderkim]

People don't see the world as it is, they only see it as they are.

[NicholasBall]

A weakening dollar often hints at potential economic challenges, prompting me to think about protecting my savings from inflation. Bitcoin has been gaining attention recently, especially with the approval of Bitcoin ETFs and Trump’s election victory. Many believe it could surpass $100k. I’ve saved $300k and am considering investing, but I keep asking myself: is it too late to capitalize on its potential returns?

[DukeBX]

Trump thinks by doing this, Nike and Ford are just going to build factories here in the next 36 months. 😂

[jdak]

Economist and Ph.D. in marketing here: I don't think we will face a recession. Recessions usually imply lower interest rates, high unemployment, and low inflation. These new tariffs could create the most feared scenario for economists: stagnation. In this scenario, inflation continues to rise as unemployment grows with it, leaving interest rates high and crashing the stock and housing markets.

[imartynenko]

You forget one important thing, we are looking not at a recession but at stagflation which is double worse than anything in recent history. The FED won’t be able to lower rates and help the market recover this time around. We possibly could even slip into a depression

[kevinfestner]

I expect this recession to be a deep and short. We have a bifurcated economy. One side is paying 450K corkage fees in Miami. The other half, struggling. I call this the silent depression.

[CJ]

Another the sky is falling video from graham. Amazing. We can listen to him babble on for 15 minutes about everything and nothing

[ebl]

I own a construction company, and i've noticed we've been in a decline for at least two years