ARMENIA-AZERBAIJAN | Close to Peace?

This video explores the likelihood of a comprehensive agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan and its potential to bring lasting peace to the Caucasus. Over 2024, there’s been growing hope that Yerevan and Baku might reach a historic peace settlement. After many rounds of talks, including a significant meeting during the July 2024 NATO Summit, both nations have shown commitment to finalising a deal. However, substantial challenges remain. So, is peace possible?

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has deep historical roots, particularly over Nagorno-Karabakh, a region that has sparked multiple wars. Following a devastating defeat for Armenia in 2023, where Azerbaijan regained control of Nagorno-Karabakh, peace talks intensified. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has pushed for a comprehensive peace plan, including controversial measures like constitutional amendments and border adjustments. While prospects for a deal remain uncertain, the involvement of international powers, particularly the United States, could be pivotal. This video examines the complex dynamics at play and the potential outcomes of this critical geopolitical issue and explores the essential role of leadership in peace processes.

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*VIDEO CHAPTERS*
00:00 Introduction and Titles
00:54 Armenia, Azerbaijan and Leadership in Peace Processes
02:48 The War over Nagorno-Karabakh
04:19 Failed Peace Efforts and a Return to War
06:22 Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Talks
08:03 Does Azerbaijan Want a Peace Agreeemnt?
10:23 Potential Armenian Opposition to a Peace Agreement
11:47 Will A Peace Agreement Last?
13:17 Can a final Peace Agreement be Reached?

*SOURCES AND FURTHER READING*
Republic of Armenia | Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Azerbaijan | Ministry of Foreign Affairs
Azerbaijan President | YouTube Channel
Government of Armenia | YouTube Channel

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*MAP CONTENT*

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- The contents of this video and any views expressed in it were not reviewed in advance nor determined by any outside persons or organisation.
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#Armenia #Azerbaijan #NagornoKarabakh

[JamesKerLindsay]

This week, I wanted to look at the ongoing peace efforts between Armenia and Azerbaijan. While this hasn't been in the international news lately, there's a lot of hope that the sides can reach an agreement. But what do you think? Is a final settlement really possible? Or will Azerbaijan back out? Aliyev already talking about an interim deal rather than a final agreement. And what about opposition in Armenia and amongst the diaspora? How do they feel about an agreement, and about Pashinyan? Finally, will any settlement last? As always, I look forward to your thoughts and comments below.

[GokhanGursel-euxm]

No one talked about peace for 30 years, when the Azeris were successful in the war, peace suddenly came to someone's mind

[ShubhamMishrabro]

Professor please also do a video on recent iran elections in which a reformist leader was the winner. What are implications of this election and will it lead to peace from recent conflicts happening due to iran vs israel/usa

[FabledCity]

In hindsight it's incredible that Karabakh held out as long as it did. It was a relic of an entirely different geopolitical environment where newly independent, incredibly weak states were trying to find their place on the world stage. But with the rise and entrenchment of Erdogan coupled with the desire for Azeri natural gas & LNG meant that Karabakhi autonomy was just no longer sustainable as Baku kept arming itself, thereby further strengthening its military posture vis-a-vis Stepanakert.

[tprbggg]

We want to live in peace with all our neighbors. We want to see peace in the Caucasus, and develop together faster like the old times. Peace from Azerbaijan. ✌️

[garikavakianoff]

The problem is that people studying this topic from the outside see this conflict as a territorial dispute, while it is about the right of people to self-determination, as was the case with Kosovo, Taiwan and Palestine.

[arid]

Great video. Glad to see you have the facts correct on Azerbaijans tyrant dictatorship and how Armenians were stripped of their land they lived on for centuries.

[Toghrul]

Long awaited analysis. Thank you, professor.

[asimsadullayev]

thanks for the video professor as an Azerbaijani I can say that the agreement is not yet the peak of success. We must understand how the peoples will get along with each other and this is a big question. Because both peoples have a dislike for each other and this makes you wonder if there will really be REAL peace

[balabani]

I am a diaspran Armenian and I feel that the professor has described the situation and its prospects very well.

[douglassun]

As a side note, this most recent shooting war literally touched the other side of the world. I was driving home from work along the 134 Freeway, just north of Los Angeles when the traffic suddenly came to a halt in Glendale, which has a strong Armenian-American community. Apparently, some protestors had blocked off the freeway to draw attention to what was happening in Karabakh.

[NikolaHD]

Very good video James! I believe that even if the agreement is reached, it will only last if Armenian army is strong enough so that Azerbaijan has a lot to lose. Loss of Nagorno Karabah is Armenian fault. While Azerbaijan used its oil money to build military, Armenian politicians were busy stealing. The only guarantee for peace is a strong military, always was and always will be. International law is only present on paper and is being applied to weak contries.

[fricatus]

Thanks as always Professor, appreciate the analysis.

[Todd.B]

no question in the comments? One always hopes for peace. Listening to this gives me the feeling that Armenia is negotiating in good faith, I don't get that same confidence from Azerbaijan. feelings however are only useful about half the time. Peace 🕊🕊🕊

[KonradAdenauerJr]

I remember when the war over Nagorno-Karabakh broke out, as the old USS was disintegrating. At the time, the Armenians were able to achieve the conquest of the area due to better organization, equipment, and experience (many Armenian personnel having been veterans of the USSR's invasion of Afghanistan).
All these years later, it's been impressive how Azerbaijan has been able to train and equip a force large enough to achieve its strategic objective.

[sbyqhip]

By the way Türkiye and Armenia border will open soon some high officers of both Side had meeting at the border to make arragment

[branscombeR]

Brilliantly concise examination of a complex conflict of territorial claims, as always! Thank you. R (Australia)

[janetmontgomery-rj]

I hope for good and peace. Thank you for the article. Very interesting.

[louisgiokas]

I find this very useful, James. Thank you for an enlightening exposition on the current state of affairs in the region.

[paulstephen]

Great analysis as always professor. I fear that unless the E.U puts pressure on baku( not likely because they need them as a bridge for central Asian oil and natural gas), aliyev will have no incentive to accept a reasonable peace deal. Do you think the September 2023 offensive was the last straw in the Russia armenia relationship? I think that Russia will not let Armenia leave its sphere of influence so easily. I also think that Russia has too much leverage over Armenia’s economy for Armenia to move westward so suddenly.