Home Prices Are Falling In More & More Markets Now | Nick Gerli

I find myself frequently repeating the advice that in today's highly bifurcated economy, it's critical to understand the difference between the mean and the median in order to get a true picture of what's going on.

And the housing market is no different.

On the mean, or average, level, US home prices are at a record high.

But in a growing number of markets, a number of them red-hot until recently, prices are down by double-digit percentages. And inventory is spiking.

To make sense of the growing divergences and find out where prices are most likely headed from here, we're fortunate to welcome back to the program housing analyst Nick Gerli, founder of reventure Consulting and creator of the new reventure app.

#housingmarket #homeprices #housingcrash
_____________________________________________

Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Solicitor.

We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It’s important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.

We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor in good standing with the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer’s unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.

IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.

Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, and money market funds involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.

A security’s or a firm’s past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.

[DanBrinkworth-wl]

Nick has been extremely passionate about trying to warn people of what is coming. No one can guess the top or the bottom especially with all of the market manipulation. Nick has stuck it out, continues to compile actual data so that we can make better decisions as this evolves. He has crisscrossed this country many times to see what is actually happening . He has my respect and appreciation .

[Hildegard.J.McCarthy]

This video is a must-watch for anyone serious about navigating the stock market's ups and downs! The insights on upcoming earnings reports, the potential impact of unexpected events, and the strategic moves by big tech companies like Google's acquisition are invaluable. Now more than ever, it's crucial to invest in resilient assets that can withstand market volatility. Don't miss the opportunity to position yourself wisely in these uncertain times. Invest smart, stay informed, and secure your financial future! I've managed to grow a nest egg of around 2.3B'tc to a decent 11B'tc in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Donna Mikalonis, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.

[ChadRoberts-xi]

This is a really interesting take on the housing market. People are being impacted by the long-term decline in property prices and the housing market. I recently sold my house in the Sacramento area, and I want to invest my lump-sum profit in the stock market before prices start to rise again. Is now the right moment to buy or not?

[Mako_]

When houses are overpriced by 30-40%, a house that's been reduced by 20% is STILL grossly overvalued.

[johnrnigrorealestate]

Realtor in CT and NY here. I’ve been doing this job for a long time and this is easily the weirdest market I’ve ever seen. Properties priced exactly right will still usually get multiple offers. But overprice it even slightly - even just by 2-3% - and the listing will be silent as a tomb, and price reductions barely help. Buyers and sellers are in a tug of war.

[ewlzwsu]

In New Zealand, the market has moved from FOM0 to FOOP, Fear of Over Paying. Banks are also stress testing mortgage applications and becoming more nervous about the security of housing collateral

[singlendhot]

This was great- we should have Nick back every 6 months if not sooner! Very insightful!

[bkfabs]

Nick is an excellent guest. He brings stats and facts to support his projections. He has always said that the downturn could take years to play out and we’re starting to see this finally play out.

[jerrycampbell-utyf]

In the current economic climate, a home is not the best investment. I've already sold my Boca Grande area home, but I want to invest roughly $200, 000 in stocks since I've heard that even in challenging times, investors may turn a profit. Any excellent ideas for stocks?

[overful]

Home prices have gone down a little. Why is nobody buying?
This is what has went up
Taxes
Water
Sewage
Trash
Insurance
Food
Entertainment
Electricity
Services (home and car maintenance)
Gas
Interest rates
Job loss (good jobs headed to India)
Inflation
College
Lawlessness
Homeless
Drug abuse
Illegal immigration
Political division
Retail theft
Rent
Restaurants
Etc.
We voted for this. We did it to ourselves.

[kennethrobinson]

When housing prices go up it’s national, when prices go down it’s local 😂

[petetown]

Nick has been screaming for a crash for 4 years. It hasn’t come. You can’t just keep saying things until they’re true and then go “see I was right”

[aleski]

My wife didn’t believe me two years ago when I said house prices would decline in our area. “It’s an isolated market” she said. Now, before the big panic and hype has even started, home prices are down in our “isolated market” over %20 on average. She’s becoming increasingly patient about buying a house now.

[wayneashley]

'The fact that we're already seeing the skyrocketing inventory level now, means things can get MUCH WORSE in the future.'

Hit the nail on the head. As a Texan, I follow our job market every month, and from February to June 2024, the number of Texas job layoffs filed through Texas Warn notice has nearly TRIPLED each month. Layoffs are rapidly increasing across the state, which means that anyone that was hoping to buy a house, they don't have the MONEY to buy anything anymore. So if we're seeing inventory spike now, before layoffs, we're in for a really bumpy ride in Q3 and Q4.

[edwinpink]

Maybe people are starting to get fed up with the rising prices and greed from Real Estate agents? 6% commission are ridiculous for the amount of work they do. They should be paid hourly like attorneys and accountants.

[Isabel-xgot]

⁠Prices in some areas have come down significantly since 2022. In Austin, prices are down 20% since the peak and they are still going down. Homeowners slashing prices left and right. Saying that he’s been wrong about the housing market is incorrect. The housing market moves slower than a sloth so if you are only looking at was has happened in the last month, you won’t notice a difference.

As a potential buyer, I refuse to buy when my rent is 50% of what my mortgage would be. And on top of a 50% difference, I have to give up cash for a down payment, spend money on repairs, and take on the risk.

It’s not about this graph or that one, what one expert predicts vs another one, but can people actually afford these prices?!?!

Since I know some people will comment that I’m just mad because I can’t afford to buy, FYI, my income is $250K and have $500K in savings, it’s not that I can’t afford it, I refuse to buy at these ridiculous prices.

[superdad]

I'm a real estate broker and foreclosure liquidator. I've been selling foreclosures for banks since 2011. I work in SWFL and FL. High home provide, inflation, interest rates should push prices down. What I'm seeing in MN no crash low inventory. SWFL, Prices are dropping, LOTS of inventory. I think the most important factor to watch now is inventory, if it grows drastically, then Prices will likely come down. In markets with low inventory, they seem to be holding surprisingly well. As far as foreclosures, they are lagged. It takes a long time for them to get through the process. Sometimes years. As of now, foreclosures are extremely low.

[PatamaGomutbutra]

I see more and more tragedy of the recent home buyer. The have no money to pay tax, insurance, maintanance etc and imminence family stress. I am satisfy renting to focus on career building.

[carrimycalifor]

Ignore the negative comments about Nick. I’ve been watching him for years and he is always honest about when inventory is low, etc. I’ve never seen him be sensationalist. What people don’t understand is that the housing market is not the stock market. You can theoretically pick up the nickels in front of the steamroller with stocks, but the housing market is less liquid, so you have to be patient and wait often time a couple of years to not get burned at the top.

I’m super grateful for Nick. In 2021 I was looking, and everyone was saying it was so great and a wonderful time to buy, and I knew something was wrong but felt gaslit by the media. I found Nick—then found Wealthion through him, in fact— and it has kept me patient, which was hard the last few years. Now that I can feel the change in the air, I am so happy I stuck to liquid assets and kept to the sidelines so now I can have more choices in my home purchase.

Long-winded, but Nick is fantastic.

[cvrart]

Once inventory swells and it turns to a buyer's market, home prices will decline. That's deflation, as it pertains to the housing market. Deflation doesn't fuel inflation. Just like inflation, and inflation expectations, deflation is self-reinforcing. Once buyers see the change in direction, many buyers will be either waiting for prices to go even lower, or they'll be offering lowball bids and closing at lower prices, leading to average sale price decline and effectively repricing other homes currently listed or about to be listed. Even worse for sellers, if buyers see the Fed lowering rates and expect mortgage rates to also go lower yet, then some buyers will just sit around waiting for both home prices AND mortgage rates to drop lower. So, a wave of desperate sellers combined with a bit of a buyer strike. At the same time, many consumers are tapped out on credit, and unemployment is likely to be increasing while the Fed is lowering rates, so buyers flush with money will be hard to find. I agree 100% with Nick's assessment that we should be entering a significant housing market crash, or a bursting of the COVID bubble. The solution to the problem of housing affordability is simply for prices to go back down to more reasonable levels of affordability. It's not rocket science.