You Ready to Lose it All on Uranium?

Terry Papineau, a retired teacher and ex-principal from Canada, has decided to go all-in on his uranium investments and says that he never loses sleep over his investments because even if they go to zero – which he deems very unlikely – it wouldn’t change what he has for breakfast.

After having spent the winter in warm places – like Turks – converting normal people to uranium bugs, Terry gave me the opportunity to question him about his uranium portfolio. Here’s a TLDW:

- Terry holds roughly 12 uranium stocks in his portfolio. 4 developers, 8 explorers.

- His strategy is simple. He looks for promising explorers with good management teams, and a low share count.

- He’s not looking to sell anytime soon. When he starts to do so, he will be scaling out, based on relative historic valuations.

- Terry’s top 3 uranium stocks are:
– Energy Fuels
– Baselode Energy
– Global Atomic

Terry thinks it’s definitely not too late to invest in uranium, and expects the sector to outperform other sectors over the next decade.

Timestamps:
00:00 Unnessecarily dramatic intro
00:10 What I worry about
05:00 Will the greater fool find their way into uranium?
12:45 Are you ready to lose it all on uranium?

[billyd]

Thank You -- Going to the Full Interview. Terry is great I really appreciate his generosity with his time.

[stuartmalin]

The last cycle is not representative because that drop was driven by Fukushima. In this cycle, the *global* need for electrical energy is insatiable.

[maxygg]

In this cycle it will be not uncommon to see explorers morph into developers then producers but you need to hold on for a decade. Can you imagine the return on the lucky holders and companies. This is the insightful question that needs to be asked in my opinion.

[ashishmeshram]

Not sure exactly what happened today but all uranium stocks from my portfolio jumped by 15%

My portfolio
20% uranium
10% potash
40% technology.
20% gold
10% automotive just because I work in this domain

[nonamejoe]

God Bless This Channel
Thank you for asking all the difficult questions no one wants to ever ask

[dirtydan]

STND 25m mc, FIND 90m mc, AND 92E 40m mc. These things can absolutely rip with just a small amount of money in the space.

[tinogomez]

Love this guys picks! The explorers are going to kill it. It’s going to be crazy! Do you want a Lamborghini or a Ferraris? The stars are aligned. I’m huge uranium but wouldn’t go all in. Reactors can blow their tops. Earthquakes, tsunami ect..

[michaelgusovsky]

I'm diversified
50% uranium
30% gold silver
10% btc
10% oil/gas

[dansoukeroff]

Thanks Terry I can appreciate your views on Uranium! I too have been in and out of U Stocks from 2006. I invested in 2006-2008 in Uranium Stocks and was lucky enough to cash out a month before everything tanked! I too, am way over invested in U Stocks today like you! But it will not affect my lifestyle if I have made a huge mistake!

[aliasoma]

Go back and look at the last run up; it took months. The spot price didn’t skyrocket overnight, so there’s plenty of time to scale out. Also, this time the high rates are likely to last a much longer time as the structural deficit will grow as more reactors are being planned/restarted. These were not factors in the last run-up. Looking at this play from a simple trading scheme is wrong. This isn’t a meme stock flash in the pan scenario.

[sanpedrosilver]

It’s a strange question your asking Antinuo. Who’s gonna buy at elevated prices?
Whenever we see a bull market, we see buyers & sellers.
The specific commodity isn’t the issue. It’s the fact that people believe the equities you are offering for sale will go higher. Greed/Gains, Plain & Simple.
But you’re right, don’t put all your eggs in one basket

[robertdagge]

Antonio, I think you answered for yourself why you take SOME profits along the way (perhaps at the +100% mark, not +10%....) even if you know the sector will go higher - especially if you consider your cash position and total exposure. It's great to see the portfolio up hugely, but most people are then always thinking "What And in a volatile sector like uranium, you can sometimes even buy back in later at a (much?) lower price. Also, if you have not taken at least some profits, the major dips are really painful.

This assumes a large uranium portfolio, reasonably significant to total investments. Investors with one or two small shareholdings, yeah just let them

[gsschneck]

Most of us bought very low so it’s difficult to really loose although greed could prevent winning.

[gibbogle]

Very good question. For everybody who makes money by selling near the peak, there will be somebody losing by buying near the peak. Papineau doesn't seem to really understand.

[hermanhaertner]

Uranium is looking more solid with every passing day.

[genxvstheworld]

The prob with uranium 235, the power plant type, is it’s limited supply. Every time potential investors get the idea to build a plant, and learn that the plant might out live the supply, they walk. Thorium, on the other hand is several times more abundant and is basically a waste product at the moment. It’s being studied and tested as a replacement by several countries. China build a small test plant last year.

[cal.]

Terry answered your question early on. Look at the fundamentals and scale out slowly over time. If you scale out in an uptrend, there is a point where you have made back all your money and you can let the rest ride essentially for free. Then you have literally zero capital risk.

Asking who's going to buy my shares in a bullish setup is silly, and asking who's going to buy my shares in a declining market is simple to answer. Those people who are buying obviously think they are getting a deal. It's called buying the dip. There is no "greater fool" in a structural bull market. It's only in a speculative bubble that you can make that argument. What is a bubble? It's ridiculous overvaluation that has outstripped fundamentals. So, going back to Terry's point, you keep an eye on fundamentals.

In order to do this properly, however, you need to be able to value your assets with some measure of precision. For uranium miners you find out what is their NAV or NPV (Net Asset Value or Net Present Value, same thing) which is based on their estimated uranium reserves and the current spot price of uranium. You can then calculate the risk adjusted return (Look up DCF analysis for more info on how to do this). You then compare that to the current SP. If SP is a comfortable percentage below that (comfortable for you), you go long. It's really that simple.

All that being said, there is the psychological component to investing, something called the Disposition Effect. That is the tendency for people to hold on to their losers way too long, but sell their winners too early. To fight this tendency it is always better to have a plan and just stick to the plan. Easier said than done, as Mike Tyson famously said, "Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face."

So, in the end, it's up to you and how comfortable you feel with your allocation. If you are nervous and second guessing your positions it is usually a sign of oversizing. Your body will tell you that if you pay attention to it.

I hope this helps. Good channel mate, cheers!

[thomasbeslanovits]

GREAT SHOW GUYS HAVE A LOT OF CALLS IN URA 2023 AND 2024

[michaelgusovsky]

I've heard it said (justin?) That last cycle, when uranium spot price overshot the long term contract price substantially, that was the signal to exit.

[johnelliott]

Tech stocks, housing, gold, silver, etc etc etc. All have cycles. Uranium has incredible set up w ongoing need. Blow off will shock to upside. Longer term 90+ needed for demand.