What if Barry Bonds had played without a baseball bat? | Chart Party

In the boldest Chart Party simulation yet, we’re sending Barry Bonds back in time to re-live every plate appearance of his historic 2004 season without a baseball bat. The only thing crazier than this experiment is the way it turned out.

[gibusgamer]

Pitching coaches: What are you doing? Why aren't you striking him out?!

Pitchers: He's just standing there...MENACINGLY.

[ikksnay]

was kinda hoping for a scientific examination of how far barry bonds could punch a baseball pitched at him, but this is even more amazing. the menacing aura of barry bonds... amazing.

[SwagnerCountsThings]

I love how you used Barry in regular clothes just smiling as if to say: oh hey guys, I was just walking through the neighborhood and noticed you were playing a baseball game."

[elEvan]

Two weeks into season:

"Hey, has anyone noticed that Barry hasn't swung the bat once?"

[tomatoanus]

this is the absolute dumbest idea ever and i love it

[anthonyhoang]

Wow, it’s such a big coincidence that all 4 players that broke 1.25 in OPS were all named Barry Bonds

[pigpuddle]

Jon, I'd like you to run the simulation again, but this time if Barry Bonds had held a big ol' summer sausage instead of a baseball bat. Thanks.

[haydencarpenter]

“Why was he so good? Nobody knows. If you think you know, go into the comments and get into a huge fight.” Perfect sentence

[temporaltoast]

“Turns out, there’s only one thing more powerful than home run ability: Fear.”

- Jon Bois, April 11, 2017

[billnye]

The saxophones still hit 3 years later

[samrojas]

May I suggest “What if 1999 Pedro Martinez pitched without any fielders?” He already has the highest FIP of any pitcher since 1945 and the 4th highest all time. Would be cool to see a chart about this.

[olipolygon]

Barry Bonds Wins by Doing Absolutely Nothing

[IndieGamerChick]

"What if Barry Bonds had played without a baseball bat?"

I imagine his forearm would have hurt quite a lot.

[seancondon]

One statistical caveat: you based the pitches he was thrown on his entire career. However, he would likely have been thrown a far higher proportion of strikes earlier in his career. In other words, pitchers would be much less intimidated by rookie Barry Bonds than by 2004 Barry, so if anything, he would be thrown an even higher percentage of bad pitches than you included. This means his OBP, properly speaking, would be even greater than .608

[vsmithrd]

As a fan of the game during that 2000 - 2004 stretch, I honestly wondered why pitchers ever threw him strikes...like ever. He was murdering the ball at an inhuman rate. It was like playing baseball against a superhero. If I was the opposing manager, I'd walk him every single time and hold his ops to 1.000, because he's actually less of a threat if you just give him a walk every single time. Unreal greatness.

[SportsGhost]

I was kind of hoping this involved Barry Bonds just swinging his massive arm and smacking the ball with his fist. This was awesome too, though.

[CrazyU]

Barry Bonds w/o bat: 100% power
Barry Bonds w/ bat: 99% power

[thefiddleronthegreen]

So, you probably won't see this, but it's worth pointing out: what you're doing is essentially a Monte Carlo simulation. But, at least as far as I can tell, you've only run the simulation once. You can't really infer anything from a sample of one simulation; you'd be at the mercy of variance. That's why Monte Carlo simulations involve hundreds, or thousands, of trials. By running lots of trials and then taking the average, you end up closer to the expected value of the situation - i.e., what an average 2004 season for Barry Bonds with no bat would look like.

If you run the simulation through more trials, you probably end up with something a bit lower. Still insanely high, but not necessarily as .608.

[SavageGreywolf]

So wait, everyone was so scared of Bonds that they literally _walked_ him into the highest OBP in the league?

[djtommyc.]

Espn posted today since walks aren’t ABs, Barry reached base 376 times in 373 ABs.