Gavin Schmidt: The emergent patterns of climate change

You can't understand climate change in pieces, says climate scientist Gavin Schmidt. It's the whole, or it's nothing. In this illuminating talk, he explains how he studies the big picture of climate change with mesmerizing models that illustrate the endlessly complex interactions of small-scale environmental events.

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[orbust]

There are 10 indicators of a warming world, according to NOAA - 1.increased humidity, 2. increased air temp over oceans, 3.increased sea surface temp, 4.increased temp over lower atmosphere, 5.increased sea level, 6.increased temp over land, 7.decreased sea ice, 8.decreased snow cover, 9. decreased glaciers, 10. increased ocean heat content. Google any one or all of these, and you will get a bigger picture of what the climate destabilization that Dr. Schmidt is referring to.

[Tomato]

well, folks, it was nice while it lasted, thanks for sharing the front row on this spectacle, looks like it is coming to an end

shame the last act won't be suitable for children

[bjrn_]

This was much more interesting than I imagined. Good choice to spend the majority of the talk explaining what a climate model is and why we should have confidence in it, before dropping the climate change bomb.

[zacharyp]

This was a really good talk. He doesn't get to the real point of the talk till the end which was perfect for this type of talk. 

[orbust]

"25 years ago people could be excused for not knowing much, or not doing much, about climate change. Today, we have no excuse." Anglican Archbishop Desmond Tutu

[orbust]

Job fact: the United States there are currently over 142, 000 Americans working in the solar industry. The National Solar Jobs Census shows year over year job growth from 2012 to 2013 of about 20%. This is during a time when overall US employment grew by 1.9% which means US SOLAR JOBS GREW 10 TIMES FASTER THAN THE AVERAGE!

[JaeMather]

Well done Gavin, a great presentation!

[srinivasanraghunathan]

Great climate study with easy to understand animated illustrated model. What we going to do based on these observations is the question asked at the end of this talk. Puzzling, exciting and endlessly entertaining. Highly recommended. 

[pratikshamore]

Thanks alot for explaining. grateful to you.

[jimkogelheide]

The year is 2019 and the top ten warmest years in recorded history have occurred in the last 13 years!

[Desertphile]

Excellent, factual, eloquent. Thank you.

[mytubeworldmayhem]

...and to see that this video is not featured on youtube boils me...don't you feel that way too? everyone needs to see this damn it!! this is more important than some silly gag on jimmy fallon!

[orbust]

There is  very long list of scientific organizations endorsing the consensus position, with none opposing it.  The Academies of Science from 19 different countries all endorse the consensus. 13 countries have signed a joint statement endorsing the consensus position.  A letter from 18 scientific organizations to US Congress endorses the consensus.

[StrangerYann]

1:11 not sure how her presence is relevant to this particular presentation but yes, she is cute.
You used a picture of industry instead of a car's exaust to illustrate greenhouse gases, thank you sir!
Good talk, give this man a cookie.

[jcl]

Great quote there at the end by Sherwood Rowland. The stalling of action has to stop if we are to avoid a self fulfilled prophecy of watching the models come true.

[freesk]

At 10:00 the model appears to "lead" the actual measured data.  I'd like to see the models improve and become more "skillful."

[jimkogelheide]

The Earth is Greener
From a quarter to half of Earth’s vegetated lands has shown significant greening over the last 35 years largely due to rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide, according to a new study published in the journal Nature Climate Change on April 25.

An international team of 32 authors from 24 institutions in eight countries led the effort, which involved using satellite data from NASA’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer instruments to help determine the leaf area index, or amount of leaf cover, over the planet’s vegetated regions. The greening represents an increase in leaves on plants and trees equivalent in area to two times the continental United States.

Green leaves use energy from sunlight through photosynthesis to chemically combine carbon dioxide drawn in from the air with water and nutrients tapped from the ground to produce sugars, which are the main source of food, fiber and fuel for life on Earth. Studies have shown that increased concentrations of carbon dioxide increase photosynthesis, spurring plant growth.

However, carbon dioxide fertilization isn’t the only cause of increased plant growth—nitrogen, land cover change and climate change by way of global temperature, precipitation and sunlight changes all contribute to the greening effect. To determine the extent of carbon dioxide’s contribution, researchers ran the data for carbon dioxide and each of the other variables in isolation through several computer models that mimic the plant growth observed in the satellite data.

Results showed that carbon dioxide fertilization explains 70 percent of the greening effect, said co-author Ranga Myneni, a professor in the Department of Earth and Environment at Boston University. “The second most important driver is nitrogen, at 9 percent. So we see what an outsized role CO2 plays in this process.”

About 85 percent of Earth’s ice-free lands is covered by vegetation. The area covered by all the green leaves on Earth is equal to, on average, 32 percent of Earth’s total surface area - oceans, lands and permanent ice sheets combined. The extent of the greening over the past 35 years “has the ability to fundamentally change the cycling of water and carbon in the climate system, ” said lead author Zaichun Zhu, a researcher from Peking University, China, who did the first half of this study with Myneni as a visiting scholar at Boston University.

Every year, about half of the 10 billion tons of carbon emitted into the atmosphere from human activities remains temporarily stored, in about equal parts, in the oceans and plants. “While our study did not address the connection between greening and carbon storage in plants, other studies have reported an increasing carbon sink on land since the 1980s, which is entirely consistent with the idea of a greening Earth, ” said co-author Shilong Piao of the College of Urban and Environmental Sciences at Peking University.

While rising carbon dioxide concentrations in the air can be beneficial for plants, it is also the chief culprit of climate change. The gas, which traps heat in Earth’s atmosphere, has been increasing since the industrial age due to the burning of oil, gas, coal and wood for energy and is continuing to reach concentrations not seen in at least 500, 000 years. The impacts of climate change include global warming, rising sea levels, melting glaciers and sea ice as well as more severe weather events.

[Dgfrmxon]

3:00 He says that the community uses Fortran but hasn't gotten into "new" things like C.  But this isn't particularly correct.

Sure, Fortran is used very heavily, but what they don't tell you is that it's linked up one side and down the other.  On the supercomputer scale, the Fortran-based simulations are almost certainly interacting with "big data" management software which is written in something else.  Even major desktop-based national lab codes are now linking outside of Fortran code to some extent.

[dustyrhoads]

Do these assumptions (11:25 mark) take into consideration innovation of efficient products?  3rd world countries moving into production equal to 1st world countries?  Does it truly consider all elements of the "puzzle pieces" that make up our climate...these are questions that still need to be answered.

[matthewjames]

Was really hoping he'd talk more about the evidence proving Climate Change and less about the importance of getting a climate change model.