Federal Reserve's Rate Hikes Are Not Over (Here's Why) | Joseph Wang & Dominique Dwor-Frecaut

Can the Fed hike to 7 or even 8%? Dominique Dwor-Frecaut, senior analyst at Macro Hive, thinks so. Dwor-Frecaut joins Jack Farley and Joseph Wang, former senior trader for the New York Fed, who share their outlook for interest rates and inflation in 2023. Dwor-Frecaut has worked at the IMF, New York Fed, The World Bank, as well as several hedge funds such as Bridgewater.

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Timestamps:

00:00 Introduction
01:05 February Fed Meeting Debrief
04:28 The (Bond) Market Is Wrong
07:11 Fed Could Hike Interest Rates to 7 or 8%"
01:03 Joseph Wang on How High The Fed Will Go
15:46 Counterarguments To An The Uber-Hawkish Case
28:06 Curve Ad
29:10 Why Is Inflation Falling?
36:57 Are Financial Conditions Actually Tightening?
46:34 The Fed's Ample Reserve Regime
57:40 Quantitative Tightening "Come Hell Or High Water"
01:07:17 Yield Curve Inversion May Exacerbate
01:10:40 How Would The Fed Get to 7 or 8%?
01:14:45 Higher For Longer!
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

[DeFi-Macrodosing]

Joseph, what a great and kind introduction to Dominique. Classy.

[moon]

takes so much mental energy to understand Dom...

[theonlyconstantischange]

"HAHAAAA JACK! You're trying to trap me"
😂 Love Dominique and I learn a ton watching her on macro hive each week

[davidm]

Thank God. Someone who understands the Real Estate market.

[GenXstacker]

I see Joseph, I click and prepare to learn.

[Kid_Ikaris]

Haven't started yet, but realizing this about to be when I listen to another set of intelligent bonafide experts tell me the countering to what the last set of intelligent bonafide experts told me.

Looking forward to the day when economics becomes a more settled science. At this point we're in the early stages in the grand scheme of things.

[yamomanemjazz]

Reminds me of milder version of George m Robinsons thesis ' the fed has lost its reaction function "
I'm not qualified to have an opinion.
Great show

[ticker]

Excellent content. Keep up the great work ya'll.

[stoneyja]

Nobody has paid their student loans in 3 years. Billions on goods, houses, services, cars, etc. And there is still tons of stimulus programs available. Eviction moratoriums are still in place in many cities. The stimulus train has never stopped yet

[bosund]

I wanted to hear them address the ability to service debt with continued rising interest rates. I keep hear people say that the Fed can't keep raising rates because of the debt burden. People use the term 'Catch 22'. I don't think Joseph or Dominique commented on that point. Perhaps they don't believe it's a real issue?

[trapOrdoom]

“There’s something for zeh howx, and something for zeh dowvz”
Her accent is godlike.

[MountainManEconomist]

I agree with most of what is mentioned... However I've recently been given credit with "ZERO" verification. This is very worrisome. I'm sure I'm not the only one and there are many who are in worse financial situations. Reminds me a lot of 07/08

[AnneMarieBaiynd-TheTradingBook]

Loving this gal's accent -and commentary!

[dt-jyig]

Lending standards in the latest surveys are being tightened at a near record pace. Loan demand in all consumer categories have dropped in the latest surveys with auto loan demand plummeting. The situation in bank lending is deteriorating rapidly as credit conditions are in flux to a greater degree than your commentary suggests Joseph

[gregorkokalj]

I think she is wrong. Does she know that the interest alone on debt for US is gonna be over 1T

[detectiveofmoneypolitics]

Economic investigator Frank G Melbourne Australia 🇦🇺 still watching this informative content cheers Frank

[Tendertroll]

They are forgetting that a lot of business loans have variable rates which can be detrimental in the future

[wtpwtp]

Dominique is completely wrong that we have had the lowest employment rate in 50 years. So many people have lost their jobs due to the anti-science C-19 "vaccine" mandates who do not show up in the unemployment numbers!

[shanedavison]

Rich people are rolling in dough now but the working class is being crushed.

[detrockcity]

Non-supervisory workers are getting the wage increases so the increasing gap between median and average wages makes sense.