China’s Economy: Has THE Crisis Started?

China’s economy is showing multiple signs of weakness. Actual growth seems below the official figures; there is substantial deflation; the housing market has yet to stabilize; and the domestic stock markets have fallen significantly. Domestic confidence is flagging, and foreign investment in 2023 was at a three-decade low. Are we witnessing the early days of an emerging full-blown economic crisis, is this just a deeper than unusual cyclical downturn, or are the worries vastly overblown? How should international investors and other governments respond?

At this online event, CSIS Trustee Chair Scott Kennedy will seek answers to these questions to a stellar group of economic experts: Steven Barnett, Senior Resident Representative in China for the International Monetary Fund; Logan Wright, Partner at the Rhodium Group; Yanmei Xie, Geopolitics Analyst with Gavekal; Kiyoyuki Seguchi, Research Director at the Canon Institute for Global Studies; and Eunice Yoon, Beijing Bureau Chief at CNBC.

This event is made possible by general support to CSIS.

---------------------------------------------
A nonpartisan institution, CSIS is the top national security think tank in the world.

Follow CSIS on:

[noahbeaufort]

The last time I invested in a stock that did extremely well was during Covid when I invested in Moderna & Zoom and I am so sad that I missed out on Nvidia. I have $360, 000 in cash and am looking for new sectors to invest in for the next five years. Any suggestions?

[hotbodtz]

I live in Thailand and at the local level I see a surge of Chinese people coming into Thailand and setting up shop. I see it as a second wave of Chinese migration into Thailand and these started pre Covid but has picked up significantly since.
This tells me the confidence on the ground level in China is very low and people are looking for greener pastures. Thailand is not a surprising destination. It is low cost and the Government basically turns and look the other way. Corruption will take care of any official restrictions. I estimate the Chinese diaspora here to be tens of thousands because it is happening in a few cities all over the country.

[greenlandconsulting]

IMF official is typical of the empty suit saying nothing by saying a lot

[SavanaT]

Surprising to me how many of the panelists continue to be pro-govt, pro-consumer spending, pro-interventionist... instead of desiring a market based, natural growth path, where consumer and producers do their part naturally and organically. To push Beijing for stimulus checks for increased spending is a one-sided, inflation inviting act. 🙏♥

[bingmu]

Read the Chinese 5 year plan: 1) house is for living not for speculation. 2) structural reform for tech driven economy.

[NorCalMoDo]

At least this panel includes someone physically based in China...

[tyko]

Should also bring this panel to provide their takes on US economy as well

[desmondshum]

I doubt anyone base their investment decisions on IMF projections 😂

[ernestwatkins]

As the Moderator said: too much emphasis on what should be done!!! We all know that these things will never happen. I would much prefer these knowledgeable people to focus on what each of them believes WILL happen. Much better than listening to fairy tales.

[kalipotmeng]

I don't really get why these experts talk china into increasing tax and at the same time say that people don't spend enough money. If they have to pay higher tax then they'll spend even less, won't they? The other confusing thing is that these experts say more market force more market force, but which market force will drive china into tech driven high value add economy? If left to the market, chinese will keep buying iphones, Teslas and having Nvedia in computing centers. What will china make themselves? Does this remind anybody of Europe? They follow the US submissively and now what? Does europe have any tech company other than AMSL?

[hclau]

😂😂😂😂😂 "centre for studies"?? What studies? Studies on how to repeat the same crap about "China Economic collapse" that was pushed by Western "Experts" since 1981??
Has the collapse began? Yes, from 1981 😂😂😂

[Birch]

Meanwhile, Geoffrey Sachs and Ray Dalio are on a street corner still flogging Chinese Investment 😅😂

[blafonovision]

Economic growth is China is easy. The central government announces growth targets. The provincial governments then report that growth, plus a little extra. Voila.

[greenlandconsulting]

It’s overall a very disappointing panel because those people have very much based on their view on very outdated information on issues such as Hukou, SOE…. But with the exception of Eunice who is on the ground and updated with the pulses.

[thomasrogers]

The chinese economy is done with low level value added manufacturing and is now focused on high values manufacturing and slow sustainability growth of 5%.. China leads the world in factory automation and robotics. THE CHINESE ECONOMY DOES NOT NEED AN ARMY OF WORKER'S ANY MORE BECAUSE OF AUTOMATION. CHINA HAS SMART FACTORIES SEA PORTS, MINES ALL RUN BY CLOUD COMPUTING AND 5 G. TECHNOLOGICALLY NOT AN ARMY OF PEOPLE. AFTER 30 YEARS OF AMERICAN OBSESSION WITH THE COMMING COLLAPSE OF CHINA ITS TIME TO LEAVE CHINA ALONE AND FOCUS ON HOMELESSNESS IN AMERICA.

[davidhhl]

Just another GORDON CHAN copy of Good feel gossip talk shop about china collapsing TIME TO MOVE ON 😂

[johnm]

What crisis? More to the point has the wests crisis started. Britains GDP 0.5% and in recession. Russias economy the best in Europe. These figures from western analysts. America has 70 million people without healthcare and 87 million with no money and thousands living on the streets. Poor Cuba sanctioned for 75 years provides free healthcare and education. A high stock market is no indication of a countries wealth. Russia a gas station masquerading as a country is self sufficient in practically everything and its economy the strongest in Europe. These so called experts would be better looking at their own country’s economies

[marioformosa]

Like Musk said, when China's GDP gets to twice or three times that of US it would be a different ball game

[WSOJ]

No no no. The Chinese economic crisis started 2001, and the economy clasped in 2008 per Gordon the expert Chang😂🤷‍♂️

[an]

Excellent panel and excellent moderation! Round 2 in the future, please