Labour's Big Budget Gamble

It was a big budget, with higher tax, higher spending and more borrowing. But will it work. What will be impact on future taxes, interest rates and economic growth► Please SUBSCRIBE!

0:00 The Budget
1:42 Higher Investment
2:29 Tax Rises
6:33 New Government same tricks
8:08 Interest Rates?
9:39 Missed Opportunities

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ABOUT
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[chrise]

The forever cones and 50mph speed limit on M1 pretty much summarizes UK's productivity, priority, problem solving, budgeting, efficiency and sheer lack of common sense.

[GIRUxGIRU]

I don't think we can afford to pay for the boomer's extravagant welfare state while the social contract is totally broken. It's not like we will see a sudden growth in tech or something, it's stifled by tax and a depressed culture.

If you're under the age of 35 I think it's best to get out as fast as you can, the forecast is extremely grim

[Willopo]

the problem is that this isnt a gamble. its very basic and weak. nothing crazy. we will just continue to flatline and await a jolt to find a pulse.

[PaulJackson-xe]

Hit 240k today. Appreciate you for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months. Started with 24k in August 2024., , ..

[iceonthemoon]

Excellent video. I have been interested in economics for a decade or more and here is what I see as the fundamental problem at the moment, it would be great to get your take on this. The public sector doesn’t want to take the hit with austerity, so the government has placed the burden of higher taxes on businesses, however, businesses don’t want to take the hit either so they will reduce wage increases, cut their workforce and increase the price of what they are selling. Consumers don’t want to take the hit, so they will buy less and ask their employers for wage increases to pay for the higher prices, resulting in the burden being placed back on businesses who will once again increase prices to protect their profits. Meanwhile, less tax revenue will be raised when businesses are selling less, consumers are buying less, and unemployment has increased. In a few years time the public sector will run out of money again, the government will raises taxes further and the doom loop repeats. So, the logical thing to do would be to look at which areas of the economy are best at generating wealth in both the public and private sector; such as education, infrastructure, transport, tech, manufacturing, engineering, science and ramping up spending in these areas whilst simultaneously reducing spending in the least productive areas; social care, pensions, welfare, foreign aid, asylum, inefficiencies in the NHS and so on. This is what I think was the mistake with the 2010-2019 austerity drive, the government cut spending in the areas that were best at generating wealth (productivity) and protected spending for areas that did not; pensions with the triple lock, foreign aid “ring fenced” at 0.7% of gdp, and low skilled mass immigration. Government policy caused a huge amount of damage to productivity and has ultimately left less money for social spending and public services per capita due to lower economic growth and a larger population. In conclusion, somewhere needs to take ‘the hit’ and the most economically logical areas are the least wealth generating government departments, the most obvious being the bloated welfare budget. Instead this government has decided to tax employment, perhaps the most damaging tax for growth! The productivity puzzle is not a puzzle at all, it seems so obvious?

[agustinarcusa]

It is a supply side problem the UK doesnt have a real engine of growth. Housing and the financial services are not there anymore

[mickyh]

My worry is around the higher skill careers as well. Shortage of higher skill workers is going to be a huge issue going forwards. Look at some of the forecasts for engineer shortage by 2030. This has made it even harder to encourage participation in STEM. Higher minimum wage, while necessary in many cases, now closed the gap between low skill work and high skill work salaries. Combine that with tax threshold freezes, higher student debt payments, lower predicted salary growth then i struggle to see how the UK can ever close that gap.

[mattanderson]

Excellent analysis
Thank you Sir

Interesting... very interesting
Wonderful discussion
Thank you

[coolbanana]

I don't really understand how the economy is at maximum capacity when there's been weak growth for 14 years.
How does that make sense?

[jerryyau]

Western countries have low unemployment rates, and their growth is driven by competition with developing countries capable of producing high-quality products at low costs. However, no foreseeable solution exists for this challenge.

[Danielcullen-glxd]

Lowering the SDLT nil rate band down to £325k for first time buyers and an additional 2% SDLT (on top of 3%) for second home owners/BTl owners and rising national insurance contributions for employers up to 15% is anti economic & business housing market growth for a services / real estate based economy, let’s face we ain’t a fossil fuel drilling/mining & manufacturing economy no more.

[quackcement]

a US trade deal would u turn the economy without major trade deal with either EU or USA there's not many reasons to be optimistic

[arthurdixon]

Why does she need to gamble? They are supposed to be professionals who have had 14 years to shadow the Tories and plan what is best for the country.

[cobbler]

Loading businesses with extra costs doesn’t seem a good way to get growth.

[gordonholding]

Govt should be able to borrow directly from the Bank of England for a proportion of its needs. This would be a creation of new money and brings a danger of inflation so it should be limited by the amount of growth.

[puppets.and.muppets]

increases in my tax only decreases the amount of hours im willing to work. at the moment its only 16 a week.

[phils]

How long before the Pension age limit is raised even further? Inward investment in the UK will need to be financially attractive, and right now that's definitely not the case. Poor infrastructure, disengaged /; disenfranchised population, amazing levels of red tape, "creative" taxation systems (that favour investment income over productive income), and of course major energy cost issues, which will take a very long time to address.

[gasface]

Hi Tevjan, could you speak on the indemnity clause of the BOEs QE/QT program which leaves taxpayers covering bond trading losses?

No such feature exists in programs run by the FED, ECB or BOJ. Love the video as always!

[TaiwoOmotosho-mv]

Thanks for your videos. Decided to open an ISA account after the budget.What are your thoughts on the 170 paged document 'Technical consultation-Inheritance Tax on pensions:liability.reportng and payment ' published by HMRC on 30 October 2024 and on GOV UK website, Pls? Would you be creating videos on 'Annex A : Case Studies 1 to 7' and 'Part 5:Summary Of Consultation Questions ' and of course, the three examples in Part 2 of the same document, Pls?Also, Would you and other finance content creators be sending email/written responses to Assets, Residence and Valuation team, HMRC on behalf of the populace?

[JSK]

Great that you are not partisan, keep it up!