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Bayes' rule: A powerful thinking paradigm | Julia Galef
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Think via Bayes’ rule to become more rational and less brainwashed.
Bayes’ Rule is a powerful way to think about evidence, says Julia Galef, co-founder of the Center for Applied Rationality.
Most of us have preexisting beliefs that we stick to firmly, unless we have a breakthrough—that is, we encounter evidence that is so overwhelmingly inconsistent with our beliefs that it forces us to change our minds and adopt a new theory. But even then, we don’t always change our minds.
Growing aware of Bayes’ rule produces powerful, fundamental changes to your thinking. Bayesian thinkers view their beliefs as grayscale; they’re not black and white. You can have “levels of confidence” in ideas that change over time, rather than wholesale subscriptions to ideas that never change.
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❍ About The Well ❍
Do we inhabit a multiverse? Do we have free will? What is love? Is evolution directional? There are no simple answers to life’s biggest questions, and that’s why they’re the questions occupying the world’s brightest minds.
So what do they think?
How is the power of science advancing understanding? How are philosophers and theologians tackling these fascinating questions?
Let’s dive into The Well.
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Join The Well on your favorite platforms:
Bayes’ Rule is a powerful way to think about evidence, says Julia Galef, co-founder of the Center for Applied Rationality.
Most of us have preexisting beliefs that we stick to firmly, unless we have a breakthrough—that is, we encounter evidence that is so overwhelmingly inconsistent with our beliefs that it forces us to change our minds and adopt a new theory. But even then, we don’t always change our minds.
Growing aware of Bayes’ rule produces powerful, fundamental changes to your thinking. Bayesian thinkers view their beliefs as grayscale; they’re not black and white. You can have “levels of confidence” in ideas that change over time, rather than wholesale subscriptions to ideas that never change.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
❍ About The Well ❍
Do we inhabit a multiverse? Do we have free will? What is love? Is evolution directional? There are no simple answers to life’s biggest questions, and that’s why they’re the questions occupying the world’s brightest minds.
So what do they think?
How is the power of science advancing understanding? How are philosophers and theologians tackling these fascinating questions?
Let’s dive into The Well.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Join The Well on your favorite platforms:
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