Recession 2022?

Is a recession coming? Is a question that has come back into a lot of people's minds because of what's been happening in Ukraine and its second-round effects. In this video, I look at the probability of a recession in the US, UK and the rest of Europe. I also show you which indicators you should be monitoring to keep your finger on the pulse of growth to help you monitor the situation so you can cut through the noise you hear in the flow of news.

Timestamps
00:00 Introduction
00:35 Disposable Income
02:42 Yield Curve
06:46 Earnings
09:25 Credit Conditions
12:47 Risk Case

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DISCLAIMER
All information is given for educational purposes and is not financial advice. Ramin does not provide recommendations and is not responsible for investment actions taken by viewers. Figures that are quoted refer to the past and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

#Recession #Investing #PensionCraft

[simonaserb]

thank you for the video! very clear and informative as always!
i like that you started using chapters in the video, it makes it much easier to navigate.

[karmba]

Thank you very much. Very educational approach

[yannis]

thank you for your detailed report and insightful analysis. as always you were spot on mate. keep it up.

[crappycommodore]

Another great video, many thanks Ramin from Australia. I love not only the analysis, the calmness, but also how you show us little bits of important analytical information like how to keep track of the yield curve in real time. Thank you, and take care. 🙏

[ferhatti]

A recession is unavoidable, we must pay the price for al stimulus to save the economy and all debts. We are all-time highs in all assets, from the 0% yields we only can go up to more pain ..

[arunmaji]

Good to hear fact/ science based talk.

[aps]

Great video. Can you please share the formula you used in the Excel in the comment. Tried googling it but couldn't find it

[peixeverde]

Great video again! Thanks, Ramin. Uncertain times, we live. Valuable, healthy knowledge, you give us. Abrazo :-))

[ShyamaSonti]

@ramin could you do an update to this video? What is the probability of US recession now? Thank you.

[tonygomes]

Its only March and we are riddled by high gas and food prices, interest rate hikes and crazy mortgages, if things continue this way people will feel the pain. I think everyone needs to stock up and save up for what's coming, its going to be a crazy year.

[tikkeung]

Thank you very much! I have been following you for two months or so. I have learnt a lot. Thank you again.

[wolfiestreet]

Another important factor is excess income. People are facing a significant and unavoidable squeeze on their margins, just like corporations and for the same reasons. This can impact on the amount households are willing to spend on investment and pension funds. This in turn reduces flows in to funds which of course can then negatively impact on valuations of equities within those funds. Funds need to liquidate on demand and this causes a problem when outflows becoming increasingly higher than inflows. Regardless of economic performance and company earnings, if households feel inclined to defer increasing investment, or even reducing investment than valuations will suffer.

[valentinbrescan]

Very insightful analysis as always, thanks Ramin

[luciferyo]

Hey Ramin,
Watched this video two times as I found it very informative. The question I had though, what is definition of recession in economic term? What is the true indication of it?This is what I am trying to understand.

[luciferyo]

Thanks Ramin for great information. Would you please explain what is your expectation regarding fed rate hike? Can they really do it up to 7 times in 2022?

[jayhay]

This reminds me of the famous scene from Star Wars with the pilot freaking out while attacking the death star, but his commander keeps repeating "stay on target. Stay on target". He follows orders, but it doesn't go well for him?

[danjuhl]

This video could to some imply that you can and should time the market. Which rarely works, usually costs you money in the long run.

[eweng]

Is indeed a correlation between recessions after the mid-1960s (seven or so) and inversions of the yield curve measure. What is never well explained is why prior to the Sixties this does not hold well or why there have been false positives in 1965, 1998 and possibly also 2020 given that the US recession was very, very brief (2 months). What is possible (I think) is that if a yield curve inversion occurs this year then central bankers might panic and curtail their interest rate hike cycle.

[InvestorGurus]

Hi can you make a video and shed lights on the compounting interest on stock and fund which doesn't work on them because they fluctuate over time and its not a fix rate of return. so concept of "interest on interest" doesn't work in mutual fund or stocks despite sellers try to sell this idea!

[johnmerlino]

One question regarding the 'long end of the curve' has kept me from buying 10 year bonds. Could the Fed lose control of the 10 year bond yield, when they try to reduce/sell the Fed's balance sheet of bonds ($ 9 Trillion) starting in May? The Fed owns 1/4 of all bonds outstanding! What if demand for our bonds decline and they need to "increase yield levels to sell long-term bonds"? Why should we expect to sell 10 year bonds at 2.15% yield when Inflation is increasing at a double digit rate? Any thoughts on the chances of a spiking 10 year yield at future Fed Auctions? I do worry about the 'risk case' of massive 2022 China, Turkey, and Russian bond defaults and US zombie companies failing.