China's Growing Interest in Central Asia

As a preview to an upcoming series starting Sept. 30, Stratfor Asia-Pacific Analyst John Minnich examines China's goal of developing energy and natural resources in the western province of Xinjiang and beyond to Central Asia.

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[canthama]

Good report and perspectives, like to see Stratfor understanding of China's raw material challenges and need for Navy military boost as well as Central Asia political play. Nice job.

[manofsan]

Will China be able to repose its main energy dependence upon Central Asia? If Taliban and other affiliated groups like the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan then threaten these energy links with militant activity, China could be forced to commit troops to the area, and get sucked into another quagmire there. Have they really thought their strategy through?

[ChristopherWalkenPUA]

Yes Iraq and Libya were under full out war. I was referring to the political/labor force problems over the last 6 months or so (that's why I wrote "as we have seen recently"). Here is an excerpt from a Reuters article regarding Libya: "Oil exports at the Mellitah terminal, owned by NOC and Italy's Eni, have been suspended due to a protest by the Amazigh group, or Berber tribesmen, demanding more political rights, sources at the terminal and oil traders said."

[ChristopherWalkenPUA]

It will be interesting to see if China can keep these proposed oil/gas pipelines operating once they are constructed. As we have seen recently in Libya and Iraq, pipelines can be vulnerable to sabotage and local political/labor force disputes. When you add into the equation that these proposed pipelines would be crossing multiple international borders, it may be very difficult for China to keep these pipelines secured and operating on a long term basis.

[itsthekush]

It's not necessarily the case that being allies w/ Russia would negate attempts by China to engage in a "great game" of sorts. The US largely pushed the Europeans out of the Western hemisphere at the end of the 19th century; some were allies. Also many European states that were treaty allies as far as continental politics were concerned nevertheless undermined each other when it came to colonies abroad. Perhaps China is different but I don't see the evidence.

[Tanarus]

The Chinese don't go around pissing people off. And for 'local political/labor force disputes.'
They crush it.

[miggio]

yes he is reading the report he wrote.

[ballermilw]

Like 20-30% of kazakhstan is still ethnic Russian, and most of the central asian nations speak Russian in schools and universities. The only influence I believe china can make is economic influence.

[EshaanMenon]

Hate to break it to you pal, put Russia isn't China's biggest ally.

[TheBlueJerrys]

I don't think that russia and china are JUST trade partners it looks a lot like a alliance to me I respect your opinion but you cant deny that Russia already controls most of the central Asian nations. the Eurasian union already has Russia, belarus, armenia, kazahkstan, kyrgzstan, and Tajikistan soo even if china wants central asia it certainly failed in its goal.

[TheBlueJerrys]

the Chinese gave Russia a chance to regain its footing and helped get America off its back. how they helped Russia is by buying mostly Russian goods like crops, oil, natural gas etc. how they got America off Russias back by making America focus on other things at that time period rather than Russia such as Taiwan, iraq, and debt that china mostly controls. but I just want to say that I think that Russia and china are allies but not like iran is to Russia or Pakistan is to china.

[spat]

The only states that really matter in central Asia are those that have Natural resources such as Turkmenistan, kazahks­tan and Azerbaijan. Countries like Belarus, Armenia, kyrgzstan, and Tajikistan are irrelevant.Tajikistan's economy for example relies so heavily on cash sent back by its nationals working abroad that remittances make up nearly 1/3 of its economy. In many places in Kyrgyzstan, trade takes place using a bartering system rather than cash, ie You fix my teeth and I'll give you my goat.

[Screenman]

Why do all the Stratfor moderators behave and speak quite "robotically"?

[walle]

Libya and Iraq were under full out war, far from "political / labor force disputes".

The pipes are as important to the countries they traverse as it is to China herself, China will certainly be affected if the pipelines stopped, but the burden will mostly fall on the country its passing through, they are getting paid to have the pipes there and money makes the world spin.

[etbadaboum]

After Russia and the US, China in Afghanistan?

[blablibliblu]

Is he Reading something? He looks distant in the Eyes.

[spat]

In politics there are no permanent friends or enemies, only permanent interests.