Which is the best predictor of the election outcome?

WHICH IS THE BEST PREDICTOR OF THE ELECTION OUTCOME:

BETTING MARKETS
THE STOCK MARKET
TRADITIONAL POLLING
PUNDITS/ANALYSTS
CULTURAL TRENDS

[joergpranger]

You have forgotten Allan Lichtmans scientific model of "13 keys to the White House". Never forget that one!

[unc]

None of the above.
Allan Lichtman is historically more right than all of them.

[samcortese]

Michael, what are your thoughts about Allan Lichtman's 13 keys prediction that Harris would win?
He has been correct 9 out of 10 times and was only wrong the one time because of a court ruling

[starbnb]

I've Republican a lot longer than Trump and my vote goes to Kamala he's a lunatic

[juanm.aguayo-leal]

Greetings from your #1 fan in Puerto Rico. 👍🏽

[amydavis]

Michael -- you asked about TV shows or cultural impacts affecting the election. Your mingle project is proof positive that there is a groundswell of thoughtful people wanting to build connection and return to shared humanity and the ability to have civil discourse. There is similarly a huge growing community of people who are breaking generational cycles, doing their personal growth work and integrating emotional intelligence and regulation -- thanks to people like Brene Brown, Arthur C Brooks, Jonathan Haidt, Marc Brackett, Andrew Huberman, Peter Attia, Rich Roll, Michael Gervais, Esther Perel and Terry Real. younger generations are getting physically and mentally healthy -- and they are recognizing that old stereotypes and outgrown social norms are hurting us. Let's talk about being hardwired for connection, the importance of our relationships in the quality of our lives and in the health of our country.

[kurtcaramanidis]

Why would Micheal not mention the private polls that are only paid to be Maybe because he doesn't like what they show.... Embarrassing performance today but understood with the program on CNN.

[LeGrosB]

By the day before the election, it will no doubt be betting markets--when liquidity is the largest and the lines have been hammered out and shaped by the "wisdom of the crowd.:. Just like the NFL and NBA, by game day, those lines are very, very sharp.

[Jdpew]

I have not heard lichtman taken to task over these two criteria:
Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
These seem very critical to his formula for success and clearly Biden is not the candidate.

[theresadavis]

I've not received any emails regarding my copy of the book??

[marklanger]

Haha. "Pundits" comes in last place for predictive accuracy, and Smerconish airs a panel of pundits on his show for the first time ever

[jasonwilson-jcwb]

Betting markets want you to bet big on who they want you to think who will win you bet your big cash they take it like a casino

[MicheleBelott-sc]

Michael what if the election is not known the day of the election or if there is controversy after the election, would that be included in the book?

[JohnStarkey-uz]

"Good gambling"?!?!? Oh, well, a casino is your host & sponsor. I guess everyone's ethics have a price tag. The take from gambling exceeds the combined total of that from sports, video gaming, the music industry & Hollywood. It's weath is based on the vast majority of its customers losing money. And it is voraciously predatory. Apart from service sector jobs (and money laundering), it is a non-contributor to the economy. It siphons vast sums of money away from any productive use.

[martinmargala]

What about the enthusiasm that has been used lately as an indicator of temperature in the country? Did anybody look at these indicators that you identified in your current question and compared these to 2016 and 2020 elections? You and others showed only polling results.

[kittylemew]

TRUMP 🇺🇸

Harris is not a strong candidate. She is a train wreck. Truly.

[bonghunezhou]

This is the first election _after_ his presidency, thus "Diaper Don" has an actual record, including his credibly alleged role in inciting that coup de tat.

Another variable not extant the previous occasions is the 'ground operations'; the prior times the campaign had not _outsourced_ the GOTV operations (probably will not matter in the backwater venues like WV and AL).

[DChase-kypg]

Mike, since your show started, you now have a bunch of trumpers as followers. too bad. I know i'm out, finally. I will tune back in during the election and after..just to see your face.

[RobertNewYork]

Why is the MSM not talking about what Trump said at the Al Smith dinner....he will work with Mayor Adams, the Governor, Chuck Schumer, Gillenbran to clean up the shit show New York City....crickets

[TheUballe]

Well, this is what happens when you run such an unlikeable candidate against him.