Discussing the Coming Conflict with China | LIVE STREAM

China is in a perilous position: strong enough to violently challenge the existing order, yet losing confidence that time is on its side. Numerous examples from antiquity to the present show that rising powers become most aggressive when their fortunes fade, their difficulties multiply, and they realize they must achieve their ambitions now or miss the chance to do so forever. In Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China (W. W. Norton, 2022), Michael Beckley and Hal Brands explain that both history and China’s current trajectory suggest that the US-China rivalry will reach its moment of maximum danger in the 2020s.

Please join AEI’s Kori Schake as she hosts Dr. Beckley and Dr. Brands for a discussion on their book and what a protracted global competition with China may look like.

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Deconstructing a 1 hr video in the comments is an exercise in futility. I'll say this, I've seen plenty of talks by both Mike and Hal and I broadly agree with what they say. Empirically speaking China has crested the hill and is picking up speed. The most recent issue with the abrupt cancelling of zero COVID and the resulting disaster is indicative of the CCP's approach to, basically, everything. These are not clever people and they are solely motivated by a desire to stay in power. That alone practically guarantees China's fall. Add in demographics, economy, world standing ad infinitum and it's a done deal. Bye China (as we know it). Can't say I'll miss you.

[michaellee]

"Numerous examples from antiquity to the present show that rising powers become most aggressive when their fortunes fade, their difficulties multiply, and they realize they must achieve their ambitions now or miss the chance to do so forever."

Sound like the USA. We had 3 decades of being the sole unchallenged global superpower creating a generation believing in exceptionalism. The concept of having a sole global superpower is actually an anomaly speaking from a historical point of view as it creates an unbalance in power and foreign policies. During the Alaska submit of 2021 the US delegation went straight for the throat and openly accuse China's diplomatic delegation with strings of "indictments" and took no consideration of how it was perceived. This conduct signals a sense of superiority while China is already now a peer to the USA in terms of power projection in East Asia. If we are to make any progress with China we should take a more modest approach without throwing pleasantries out the window.


As for China needing to make a move NOW, I don't believe that this is true. China is already projected to overtake the US in GDP output within the near future as well as matching the US in military might and technology. This is not a deviation as China (as a nation state) mostly been a great power throughout history. Whether China will become first place or is not the issue, but rather is China going to become a peer to the USA and expand its sphere of influence? Yes, this is undeniable.

29:00
If the West can shut down China's supply chain then it would completely justified their belt and road initiative, creating a economic threshold to keep Western powers from projecting their influence on China. The idea that China can "never have a positive relationship with the West" came from you, remember that. Perception is reality. If you make it a goal not to improve diplomatic ties with China then it will become a self fulfilling prophecy.
As for creating geopolitical problems, this statement is ironic and humorous at best as it completely disregard history from the past 200 years that has lead up to this point. Yes the CCP does play on nationalism as many Chinese still remember the infringement of their autonomy from the Boxer Rebellion, the two Sino-Japanese wars, and to western support of their civil war to install a nationalist party lead by a plutocracy ruler who ran an election base off of its own party... LOL! Classic one party election move! And no I am not a communist sympathizer, I am just stating historical facts. The harder we try to contain China, the harder they will fight back. China sees Taiwan as a part of its country and yes Taiwan WAS China at one time in the UN counsel.

39:00
The reason why China as anti US strikes is because we have the 7th fleet dock in Japan to contain Chinese operations into Taiwan back in the 1950s. They feel like this is an infringement of their civil war which needs to be concluded sooner than later as Taiwan DOES have legitimacy claims over the mainland. Being only 100 miles off their coast, gaining Taiwan would act as a first chain of defense for the mainland and not necessarily a string board to conquer the pacific (disclosure: China gaining Taiwan would naturally expand their influence in to the Pacific and the Japanese are afraid of this because of their past belligerent stance against China). The current issue is that we have older politicians who are still stuck with 20th century East Asia policies from the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty thinking that it would solve 21st century issues. But rather its just a bandage on a gushing wound. Ultimately, most Americans know that its not about China threatening US national security but rather the $105 billion trade network between Taiwan and the USA. Its about the semiconductors and all the American firms that will be pushed out or subjugated to Chinese regulations if China takes Taiwan. Its about the lucrative military hardware that we sell to Taiwan. Its about the fear of the US losing the image of being the sole superpower of the world and the prospect of acting however we want, whenever we want. This is especially true after our defeat in Afghanistan, I still have yet to find a single news outlet to admit that we lost just like in Vietnam. I believe that if we TRULY want peace in East Asia and continue to sustain our trading network with China (China being our largest trade partner), we would need to start treating China as a peer and not as an enemy. Concessions such as, if we withdrawn our support from Taiwan and encourage the Taiwanese to integrate, then China will also need to withdrawn their support for a much more unstable and dangerous North Korea and encourage it to reunited with South Korea under a democratic government and work towards nuclear disarmament of the Korea peninsula. No one talks wants to talk about the relationship between CCP China and North Korea but in truth China has major influence over North Korea. Thus putting an end to Cold war era foreign policy in East Asia and what I believe will help avoid a war that will decimate our economy and put millions of young Americans six feet under. I predict that a total war with China will be our most difficult war yet and it will be harder than fighting the Germans in WW2.