Does It Matter Anymore?

In today's episode, we dive into the crucial question: "Does this yield curve inversion even matter anymore?" Join me as we unpack the implications of a potential yield curve uninversion and its impact on the S&P 500, which has been stuck in a narrow trading range.

We’ll break down:
- The recent comments from Fed's Kashkari about interest rate hikes and the market's reaction.
- The CME Fedwatch tool's insights on future rate changes.
- How the ECB's stance on rate cuts contrasts with the Fed's position.
- The effect of the 10-year Treasury yield rising above 4.5% and its implications for energy stocks and other sectors.

I also analyze the correlation between the 10-year yield and the S&P 500, showing you detailed charts and patterns. We'll discuss the importance of energy sector performance in relation to rising yields and highlight top energy stocks worth watching.

Additionally, we explore the longest yield curve inversion since the 1980s and its historical significance, especially when the curve starts to uninvert. I provide a detailed analysis of current market conditions, key gamma levels, and the potential moves in the S&P 500.
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#Stock​market #StockMarketAnalysis #Day​Trading

[SumDumBro]

The video was much better since it had audio. Good job

[briankuczynski]

They won't let the yield curve uninvert. When it does, it'll be because of something they can't fix.

[allnovieveryday]

Fed strategy seems to be "If we don't un-invert the yield curve the recession can never happen".

[parveensachdeva]

Thanks for the market analysis. Which service do you use to track gamma put/call walls and gamma levels? Thanks

[michaelbananas]

Yield curve is staying inverted because the fiscal and monetary authorities are purposefully throwing everything at signs of potential slowing and weakness in the economy, hence the pattern of the curve moving back towards positive, and then being pushed further negative again.

An important distinction here for those saying "they wont let the curve uninvert" is that the yield curve is merely a reflection of the economies relative position in the business cycle due to the cycles close relationship with its biggest asset, bonds. I.e. "They" (fiscal and monetary authorities) arent trying to distort the yield curve back negative, it is rather that their unwillingess to let economic conditions deteriorate, and desire to artificially support markets has the correlated effect of not allowing the yield curve to spike back positive.

So..the yield curves movement throughout a cycle is an indication of the economies position in the cycle. At the peak of a recession, the yield curve is most positive, and at the peak of a boom, it is most negative. The problem for economists is that, while cycles are maybe 8 years or so, the peaks of a boom and bust occur only 1 or 2 years from each other. I.e. the peak of a bust to the next boom peak is a slow staircase of many years..but the peak of the boom to the next bust is essentially an elevator...

[gainer]

Bulls keep charging Up.. VHAI..23 %... GME 24 %... FSRN.. Fisker up another 6 %..Who will acquire Fisker in June..Tata Motors? CRKN...7 % rise and more. Strong start to the week. Thumbs Up video/ comments. Thanks

[TheAmaye]

can you start to include gamma charts for dow jones and nasdaq?

[broketostoke]

"Had to re-record because it had no audio"

Me: rolling my eyes because I was commenting on the last videos about your mic having cut-outs and suggesting seeing if you could find the problem...

[noorkarim]

It won't happen until it happens...

[cheersmodreams]

It's curious that neither the yield curve inversion, as a signal of an expected slowing in growth, and the VIX, as a signal of uncertainty, are working. Connection?

[pierre-louis]

Funky ! Certainly even better than your muted first version :-)

[jimdoe]

How about if the Yield UnInversion does not cause Crises, but rather, Crises cause Yield UnInversion. Care for a deep dive RCA Mike?

[believeroftheword]

Toro, baby! Let's run all summer!

[cvrart]

Not enough buyers for US debt, given the reckless budget deficit / fiscal profligacy by the Biden administration, along with geopolitical tensions with China making them dump treasuries for fear of experiencing what Russia did if war with Taiwan becomes a thing. Given the low demand, yields have to go higher, and so the Fed basically is forced to comply with the dictate of the treasury market, so they set policy with excuses about persistent inflation or a strong labor market. This is a case of the tale wagging the dog, where the tale is the treasury market, and the dog is the US Federal Reserve and its funds rate. Taxpayers are on the hook for financing the ballooning interest payments on our massive government debt through inevitable tax hikes.

[craigadair]

There is no way the Fed hikes this year. Even though it's needed they dont have the stomach to endure the stock market turmoil.

[blockaderunner]

Thanks. People indeed keep telling me that it "doesn't matter anymore" with a smile. For the record, I'm completely out of it. Edit: reason being: nothing looks attractive to me like back in April/early May.

[torchy]

I think we’re good because markets typically go higher.

[ericdoll]

Whatever timeframe youre on it as "that" moving average. Not the "day" moving average for everything. Drives me crazy lol

[Scottweeier]

I lost over $70k when everything started to tank. Not because I was in an exchange that went belly up. I was just stupid to hold and because that's what everyone said. I'm still responsible. It just taught me to be a better investor now that I understand more of what could go wrong. It took me over two years of being in the market, I'm really grateful I found one source to recover my money, at least $10k profits weekly. Thanks Patricia Annie Brooks

[mitoz]

Look for Cover two weeks 😁, 🗣️🫏💨💨💨💨👀👌great video mikes 🤠