Who Will Win Gold? Josh Kerr vs Jakob Ingebrigtsen Prediction and Analysis

Josh Kerr and Jakob Ingebrigtsen will soon have a showdown in the Paris 2024 Olympics 1500m. They have been in a heated rivalry since the 2023 World Championships in Budapest where Kerr outkicked Ingebrigtsen in a shocking upset win. This video gives a prediction as to who will win the Olympic Final between them.

[fettslasken]

I hope Jakob and Timothy will help eachother to keep the pace unbearable for the others

[TheGuy-sjsw]

“I’ve never had any rivals everyone has a rivalry with me” -Jakob.

[evanhankins]

If the winning time is faster than 3:28.5, Jakob wins. If it’s slower than that, Josh wins

[patricktheaveragejoe]

these videos are very high quality, the kind i would expect from a channel 10x this size. Keep it up!

[jupitercrash]

After watching the first two rounds in Paris, don't be shocked if Cole out sprints Jakob and Kerr in the final 50m.

[agneskickingbird]

This one is tough to call. Just when I begin to lean towards one of the two athletes winning it I think nah, and change my mind again. Jakob, Josh, Jakob, Josh etc. There’s also the possibility that neither of the two win and someone else runs them down in the final 100 or 200m, but I (and others I’m sure) think it’s unlikely.

[StephenVisnarius]

Great analysis. I’m putting my money on Ingebrigtsen. Just a feeling. I just think he is peaking. And will be unstoppable. That said, we shouldn’t discount Cole Hocker. He can come out of nowhere.

[CliveBramham]

Thanks for your analysis. In my opinion the race is about Jakob. He is the best and fastest, but there are a handful of top challengers. I do disagree about pacing - in many races Jakob is the pacer for most of the race. He has also shown over and over in the past 2-3 years than he runs his own race and sets his own lap pace (lights or not).

[Stacie]

I'm gonna put my money on a dark horse, Cole Hocker. Cole gonna shock the world.

[AndrewWhitehead-hw]

I really enjoyed your analysis and agree with you. We’re all looking forward to it 😊

[Salsi]

I put my money on Jakob. In the Monaco DL he started winding it up with 400m to go (also at WR pace) and if he does that at the Final I don’t think kerr will have a kick at the end. But we’ll see, tbh I just want to enjoy the race but i’ll be rooting for Jakob.

[uriahlucas]

I think there’s a really good chance that Timothy and Jacob take it out hot together. They’re both in really good shape and it would benefit both of them which I assume they both would know. So considering Timothy will be there I’ll guess Jacob wins, if it was just Kerr vs Ingnabritsen probably 50/50

[BitCrafted]

I think Josh will win by 5 metres or less. It will be very close and could go either win but I say Josh takes it and overtakes ingebrigsten some time in the last 100m. People are saying ingebrigsten has insane fitness right now but he had insane fitness back in 2022 when he beat the indoor 1500m world record. A few months later though he came second in both the outdoor and indoor 1500m world championships. It will be difficult for ingebrigsten I think it’s his race to lose because I don’t think he can beat Josh by doing his standard tactic of leading from the front. This can be problematic without pacers. I also don’t think that ingebrigsten can allow this to be a slow race. If the average pace is around than 3:31-3:32 with 400m remaining then I think Ingebrigtsen will definitely get out kicked and maybe not just by Kerr. Jakob will have to hope someone else that leads from the front takes the race out at a good pace, then he could maybe try a midway surge where he goes to the front with 800m remaining or so. This kind of thing is risky though as overtaking runners midway through isn’t necessarily the most efficient way and there is a risk of him getting trapped/boxed in. Getting boxed in would be bad for Jakob as normally it’s not as big an issue because things often open up toward the end but Jakob can’t wait till near the end. If Jakob has a perfect strategy and a bit of luck with what the others are doing then I think he could win otherwise I think Josh takes it. It’s Jakobs race to lose he’ll have to be tactical and ballsy but not too confident.

[DanielBIngle]

He needs to run like El G in 2004 against Lagat 8-900 meter kick

[RUNISFAST]

I think Jakob goes to front and kerr follows jakob on 3.26 - 27 pace after 500m kerr goes to the front and with 300m again jakob kicks to the front jakob wins with 3.26.00. 2Kerr 3.28.91 3narve 3.28.93

[roydos]

Just wondering how much energy a runner saves when running behind someone, they are running at 25 km an hour so the leader is taking a lot of wind? What do you think Jakob could run in a 1500 time trial?

[randytindol]

Watch out for the dark horse, Hobbs, his 1.43.64 speaks volume, along with his 3.31 53 final at USTrials means something..He may not win but he will medal..He ‘s speed speaks volumes..Hobbs is the new kid on the blocks…Jacob got this but Hobbs going to give the hell..

[nathanielseltveit]

The difference in speed the last 200m between the two of them last year wasnt that big. And at the time Jakob had a fever and i believe people under estimates his speed. Although Kerr has gotten better and mabye can do a 3:27.90 in Monaco for example, he is still behind Jakob in fitness by a great margin. Also im so done with the critics towards Jakob in non paced races, because in those races Jakob is Josh pacer i Would like to see Josh take a skiver medal two years in a row taking it by the front, because it will never happen. Jakob is the better runner overall and if the pace is between 3:27.5-3:28.5 he will glide away from Kerr with a few meters in the last 150m

[Runningfree-jucy]

Your analysis is very good, although I have a few minor disagreements. It’s impossible to predict who will win the 1500M as too many variables and unknowns are in play. The main unknown is whether Ingebrigtsen has improved further following his Monaco 3:26.73 run. His progression after recovery from his Achilles injury has been startling. He may have a sub 3:26 (i.e. world record) in him sometime this year based on his results so far. If the pace is only solid (around or just under 3:29) and Ingebrigtsen leads fairly early we’ll probably have a replay of the last two world championships. That’s completely logical as Kerr following closely has a decided advantage with a slightly easier run sitting right behind. I believe Kerr has the fitness and ability to run a 3:27 but may struggle holding on if Ingebrigtsen can run a 3:26 (perhaps even low 3:27) leading almost all the way – far from easy to do at their level. Ingebrigtsen ran his spectacular 2 mile world record being on his own for the last three laps (albeit still with wave lights). An intelligent athlete runs to his strengths, not his weaknesses, so I can’t imagine Ingebrigtsen will tolerate a slow or even solid pace. Ideally he’d want a 1:50 to 1:51 800M and a 2:46 1200M, followed by a 40 second last 300M (53.33 second 400M pace to finish). That would probably blunt Kerr’s kick enough for Ingebrigtsen to win gold. It’s obvious to say it looks a match race between Ingebrigtsen and Kerr if the pace is at 3:29 or below, the faster the race being to Ingebrigtsen’s distinct advantage, of course. He looks to have the superior strength/endurance.

[michaeljuniphant]

Great review, but your call is off. Jakob knows he has to pump up the pace to have a guaranteed win. He will do it. If he doesn't, he knows it can go either way, so he will. It would be a terrible game plan if he doesn't take it out hard.