Forecast Discussion - May 10, 2023 - Classic Supercell Setup Returns to Colorado

For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.

May 10, 2023: The SPC has outlined an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for northeast Colorado into far southwest Nebraska/northwest Kansas. This is a fairly classic supercell setup for this area, as low-level easterly winds beneath meridional mid- and upper-level flow and ample moisture will yield deep layer shear favorable for supercells with all hazards.

[zachsteiner]

I wish I had someone like you as a friend, I need someone to nerd out with about weather lol.

[WeatherWatcher]

Great analysis video - Very informative 👍🏼💯

[grantsherwin]

Convective models nailed it today. They seem to be very dependent on geography. My aunt lives in Dallas, and they seem to miss quite frequently with their severe events. I live in southern MN and it always nails the storm mode, and as is the case in Colorado right now, can forecast individual cells with near perfect geographic accuracy occasionally.

[big_yam]

Colorado resident here, gonna see about setting up somewhere south of Fort Morgan just east of the greater metro area. I will try to avoid getting my windshield blown out. Already caught that beautiful mother ship supercell yesterday evening in roughly the same area during my chase yesterday.

[thebroderickhoward]

Gotta love those NE Colorado storm chases. It always presents beautiful LP Supercells and Tornadoes. Good Luck Chasing!!

[runt]

Really informative video, Trey! As a bit of departure from some of the more "normal" storm systems, having you dig into the specific terrain-induced vorticity in NE Colorado was really interesting to learn about and how that can really affect the tornado potential. Seems like a fairly potent trough but a bit of just-in-time shear, might come in a little later on in that supercell's life but definitely would expect some tornadoes today and given the area we should get some beautiful shots from the chasers that are out there.

Looking forward to more videos from this system, the ridge has been very strong with lots of random storms being thrown against it from the drylines and it seems like it's time for a bit of a pattern flip.

[svweather]

Thank you for taking time to make this video in the busy schedule. Good luck and be safe!

[JanicePhillips]

Hey there, Trey! I'm missing my Oklahoma thunderstorms! I really hope we at least get some rain again soon. The CAPE was almost 4, 000 the other day with high humidity and all the other good storm juice, and nothing happened! lol
I've had to water my garden almost everyday due to the ridiculous heat, too. Prolly gonna have to reseed some of my corn... Ah well.

[williamdunn]

Sun is out. Winds cranking out of the southeast. I smell a nader coming. Today is reminiscent of May 18, 2010. Localized tornado outbreak. EF2 struck Burns Wyoming

[MightyMuffins]

Such a solid chase region. Man we had had so much good luck with some great structural storms up in that KS/CO/NE region. Also it's a really good road network and nice flat filming region too.

Pretty much as you said in the title....classic super cell set up and it's gonna be one very interesting to see how this overall set up cooks out as the day goes on. Good negatively tilted trough and pretty good surface winds even right now. As you said, you get upper 50s dew points in CO you are in good shape as you don't need the 60s/70s dew points like in the plain and Southeast.

Only downside for today is the insane chaser convergence you'll likely see. It's a narrow area with good road network but my god will there be few spots to try and isolate yourself from the pack. Last year and in 2021 when we were up there in Early and Mid June it was insane for even that late in the season when you'd think you'd not see a lot of chasers out there on a slight risk day and sectors were more spread out to see how packed even some of the more paved back roads were. I mean today I sense a lot of chasers will be on the 1or 2 big supercells we will see from today.

I think we'll see one REALLY REALLY photogenic tornado today with likely a big cone and the rest of the tornadoes will be gustnadoes or landspouts.

[jonp]

Where would you go to set up based on real-time info? Thanks for the video!

[andrewhuntzinger]

just finished finals at csu, now it's time to chase

[xstuff]

Now I’m going to listen to John Denver’s “I guess he’d rather be in Colorado”

[krzy]

Almost got clouded out up there but it was clear that just delayed the verification a bit it seemed
This threat (now today as I’m typing this) seems to be quite the interesting one, two different Kansas Cold core setups and a classic Oklahoma dryline setup, about as good as it gets
Almost guaranteed photogenic tornadoes should happen with the initial round of activity in Kansas I’d imagine, Oklahoma though also looks really good if everything evolves right (particularly the upper level shear not significantly impacting supercell longevity), soundings remind me a lot of dodge city 5/24/16 especially considering the triple point in play, and then potentially some other cold core dryline stuff in Kansas after the initial potent round of cold core storm activity however that’s conditional on lots of things

[subiesojourner]

Can those DCVZ type situations happen in the Appalachians?