Unlimited Macroeconomic Webinar August 2024

With volatility returning to asset markets, what is priced into stocks and bonds? Inflation is decreasing but remains north of the Fed's 2% mandate. Are the priced in expectations of AI improvements, in margins and productivity likely to be achieved? Is China in a deleveraging state?

August 15, 2024

00:00 Intro
1:35 Short Rate Market Pricing
5:30 Stock Market Expectations
14:25 AI Impact on Equities
25:00 U.S Economic Growth Factors
32:06 The Question of Inflation
35:00 Volatility Shocks – Causes and Impact
42:05 China and Japan

[TakesMarkets]

Bob Elliott from Unlimited is easily one of the most unbiased, quality macro analyst out there currently. It's unreal to have access to this for free. Thank you Bob!

[josephamir]

Thanks Bob. Best macro content available. Regards Joe

[jonyD]

Don't title it, webinar. Title it as a Masterclass.

Thank you 🙌

[clintshoemaker]

Thank you Bob, appreciate you sharing your knowledge.

[hlorenzen]

Big fan of your webinars and this is probably your best one I've seen, so thank you!

I thought a little about the AI Impact on Equities and wanted to offer two thoughts: 1) A lot hinges on assumed AI investment growth. BBG Intelligence assumes it is ~40% per year, the market may well pick a higher number, which would change things a bit. Especially if, 2) the market assumes much of that AI spending will feed straight through to earnings because of the high margins NVIDIA et al. are experiencing.

This would help to "justify" those aggressive expectations of margin expansion. I think that is what the market is doing, but I also completely agree with your conclusion. History is full of examples of markets overvaluing new innovations through extrapolation of margins that can only be sustained during initial periods of scarcity. In fact, the investment boom is exactly what should bring the extreme margins in the sector down over time.

[john]

AI pricing segment very helpful thanks

[TxRedMan]

We’re priced for perfection in too many ways. My biggest concern is how long these periods can persist for.

[AC-cwwy]

is there a point in expecting markets to correct at this stage? I don't understand how it's just bull bull bull despite 525-550bps, it's turning into the easiest playbook of all time to just be a bull, no more fancy analysis or brains required, just buy only

that being said, your macroeconomic analysis is amazing.
would love to see you and TXMC bring all your charts together and do a 2h video together.

[nonexistent]

Everyone I talk to thinks rates are going back to 0. That mass blatant mispositioning of being offsides is what drives my conviction.

[angelbaybee]

Need to understand how this relates to Moores Law. Please comment on this. If tech


Moore's Law states that the number of transistors on a microchip doubles about every two years with a minimal cost increase.
In 1965, Gordon E. Moore, the co-founder of Intel, made an observation that eventually became known as Moore's Law.
Another tenet of Moore's Law says that the growth of microprocessors is exponential.

[harshtayal]

@Bob, on the 3rd slide ("...Cuts...priced in...occured in crisis...), interesting piece is also the rapid increase in rates that's unprecedented. Would looking at that make you say that the ball was rapidly moved in one direction and moving it back requires rapid rate cuts (without crisis)?