Reflections on Myanmar’s Future After the 2021 Coup

On February 1, 2021, the Myanmar military staged a coup and seized control of the country, imprisoning elected leader Aung San Suu Kyi and other members of the National League for Democracy. In the months since, the country has seen wide spread protests and the deaths of hundreds of people.

At a time of intensifying geostrategic rivalries—and with so many countries diminished by their struggles in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic—the coup-makers have bet on exhaustion and distraction among the western democracies. It is unsurprising that the sharp deterioration of Myanmar’s security, economic and humanitarian situation throughout 2021 has failed to generate a rapid or effective international response.

In his presentation, Professor Nicholas Farrelly from the University of Tasmania explored scenarios for Myanmar’s immediate future. He considered Myanmar’s stark decline alongside a broader set of reflections focussed on the fragility of democratic institutions and the ongoing success of authoritarian political models. Professor Farrelly suggested options for foreign policymakers and outside advocates seeking to help shape a more positive future for the people of Myanmar after so much recent violence, trauma, and hardship.

Speaker: Professor Nicholas Farrelly is Head of Social Sciences at the University of Tasmania, where he leads a large multi-disciplinary team responding to important local, national and global issues. After graduating from the Australian National University with First Class Honours and the University Medal in Asian Studies, he completed his M.Phil and D.Phil at Balliol College, University of Oxford, where he was a Rhodes Scholar. In 2006, Nicholas founded New Mandala, a website which has gone on to become the preeminent public forum in Southeast Asian Studies. He previously held key academic positions in the ANU College of Asia and the Pacific, including as Deputy Director of the Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs and as Director of the ANU Myanmar Research Centre, an institution he helped establish in 2015. From 2017-2019 Nicholas was an Associate Dean in the ANU College of Asia and the Pacific. In 2020 he was appointed to the Board of the Australia-ASEAN Council.