Arctic sea ice: A rapidly changing environment and the challenges it presents for prediction

This series features experts who are working on research topics of interest to the Predictability, Predictions, and Applications Interface (PPAI) Panel. The Panel's mission is to foster improved practices in the provision, validation and uses of climate information and forecasts through coordinated participation within the US and international climate science and applications communities. The Panel members act as facilitators, assisting in moving climate science forward.

Title: Arctic sea ice: A rapidly changing environment and the challenges it presents for prediction
Presenter: Walt Meier (NSIDC)

[matthauslill]

How were the temperatures in these locations in 1920-1940?

[martiansoon]

Could you use ice surface smoothness as a sign of 1st year ice vs multiyear ice? First year ice is smooth while multiyear ice is crushed together and is more rugged (like Grand canyon). This gives you a crude estimate or even a baseline of the ice thickness if you don't have better measurements and predictions. Flat arctic sea ice has become common in recent years (Wadhams). Specially before satellite data this could give some estimates how thick ice was.

[martiansoon]

Don't forget to get worst predictions out from final combined results. If one model gives way more or less than average then it should be taken out from final combination. But that doesn't mean that these results cannot be shown in earlier data and methods how something and why it is removed should be added too to the study. And afterwards you may figure out if removed estimates gave good enough prediction or even better than others.

Also heatwaves, heat transfer from currents, polynyas, polar vortex wobbling, even cloud coverage, etc. are hard to predict. And don't forget storms like in 2012 that may alter everything in one summer and after. One rough hurricane would mix oceans and push ice together making large open surface that sun could heat up. There has been some kind of blocking high near Barents sea in recent years that have blocked record melting about month before lowest ice area or that's what I have heard.

Suggesting some talk education for this scientist, there's loads of errrrms in the video and that makes listening hard, pausing with silence would be better. Overall excellent video with loads of information.