Russia Moves Into Kherson, Amidst the Shelling of Crimea [War Mapped]

Let's see how the current layout of the Russian-Ukrainian war looks like. Mapped.

Research & analysis: Rochan Consulting
Video production: Łukasz Szypulski
Voiceover: Hubert Walas

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[GoodTimesBadTimes]

Rochan comment to the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive:

"The attack on multiple axes probably seeks to exert maximum pressure on Russian forces and force them to respond by moving their formations north of Dnieper. There they would be very susceptible to Ukrainian high-precision strikes and continuous attempts to hinder Russian ground lines of communications.

It is also too early to discuss what the end goal might be. Ultimately, Ukrainians would want to push Russians over the Dnieper and liberate the northern part of the Kherson Oblast. However, we do not think that this is currently feasible. Perhaps the objective of Monday’s assault is to probe the Russian response and force them to commit more resources in this direction. This approach would also fit into recent comments about how Ukrainians want to bleed Russians out logistically before committing to a larger offensive.mLastly, let’s not forget about the domestic factor. Ukrainians have been “promised” a counterattack in Kherson for weeks, and maybe the political-military establishment felt it needed to deliver to boost morale.

The offensive is running contrary to our expectations and forecasts. We have been saying for a month that a large-scale Ukrainian counterattack is unlikely due to the increased presence of Russian military units in the Kherson Oblast. We are surprised by today’s events. However, we still maintain that this is not the attack everyone has been awaiting. Our sources in Ukraine share this view. The next few days will show whether this assessment is correct."

Ukraine Conflict Monitor (Rochan Consulting):


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[dilanrajapaksha]

As a person living in a western country I wanna say thank for continuing to make these well edited and informative videos. While it feels like most western media has forgotten about the Ukraine-russian conflict I'm glad I can continue to stay in the loop with these vids

[Zei]

Absolutely incredible work. The quality of this video is immense. My friends and I have been extremely impressed by your work and this is by far the best video of its kind right now.

[merckaderr]

As far as I know the authors of this channel are Polish, so I would like to help you pronounce Ukrainian toponyms(I am from Kyiv): "Kh" in Kherson, Nova Kakhovka and so on is a digraph which defines the sound /x/ that is similar to polish digraph "ch" like in "chleb", "Częstochowa", etc. And of course, thanks for you work that highlightes our war to western audience.

[lajoyalobos]

You don't announce an offensive. Zelensky did so because Kherson is a trap. Throughout this war, the Ukrainians have shown an amazing use of geography to whatever advantage they can get. Ukraine is looking to replicate the assault on Kyiv with strained Russian supply lines until eventual collapse and so far it is going exactly to plan: Putin took the bait, reinforced Kherson, Ukraine is pummeling the supply lines, and now we wait for the poison to take effect. If and when the Russian forces in Kherson are nullified, it will be a major blow to both Russia's ability to carry out further offenses and also morale.

[tobiasL]

Call me crazy but I honestly think Ukraine's counter offensive was never meant as a true counter offensive.
Look what just talking about it achieved, Russia massively increased it's forces in the area, in exactly the spot that is the hardest to supply.
What better way to silence Russian artillery?
Pretty sure Ukraine correctly identified that they need to silence Russian artillery to have any chance.
HIMARS can help achieve that and straining Russian logistics would double down on that.

Because a large ground offensive without either air superiority or artillery advantage is just very unlikely.
It's the reason Ukraine isn't concentrating it's forces, the Russian artillery advantage would hammer them too badly.

[romeofalcone]

Thanks for your work, author. It's important event at international history

[lordulberthellblaze]

The war situation is evolving with both sides soon to face strategic deadlock.
Ukraine has lost its window of oppurtunity to counter attack towards Kherson. And due to its still present lack of heavier weapons and equipment as well their limited ability to use those in proper combined arms offensives, their ability to regain ground will be severely limited for some time. Meanwhile Russia, though still having the offensive initiative are still failing to achieve its current war aims.
They can gain ground but they can't completely defeat the Ukrainian army in the field, there is also no realistic hope of getting Ukraine to agree to any negotiated peace favorable to Russia, especially if it involves cedeing land.
All that land is also full of partisans that make any hope of integrating it into Russia a complete fantasy.
The west is also not looking like its going to stop helping Ukraine. And while ominous calls of winter is coming echo.
Bear in mind that the coming winter also brings forth the rasputitsa (mud season)  that destroys vehicles ability to move on anything but paved roads. Which has thus been to the benefit of the defender, as it had during the war's start. And when winter does end, and neither Europe nor Ukraine capitulate. What then?
The longer this war drags on, the more time Ukraine gets to receive the training and prep necessary to field better and better NATO weaponry. Europe, though taking a hit to its economy, will only continue to grow less and less dependent on Russian Energy resources. While
Russia gets effectively trapped in a conflict that is grinding it out of its great power status.

[NeoEvanA.R.T]

I got a feeling, that "Ukrainian counter offensive", It just to isolated Russian forces in the worst logical position

[mtkovalko]

Great video and analysis of the current situation in ukraine

[geneticepistomology]

Excellent video, it is amazing that I am not only familiar with the names of the cities in Ukraine, but I know what they look like. Bald and Bankrupt provided some quite effective geography lessons.

[steveosborne]

I think you should look at the changing political stance of the Central Asian republics .
They definitely seem to be drawing away from Russia, they have their own independence to worry about .
Lukashenko also seems to be drawing back slightly I think he is also worried about the way the war is going and can see that Russia are struggling . He’s far more worried about his own position, I think, than support for Russia .
Also in Chechnya the opposition to Kadyrov is becoming more vocal .

[mr-boo]

Thanks for a very high quality, and (as far as I can assess) unbiased, reporting of recent events. Much appreciated!

[TheRogueElement]

Thank you for these videos, they’re very informative 👍

[bigdada]

Blessings, peace and luck from California to Ukraine 🙏✌🍀💛💙

[guppo]

Once again a very informative and comprehensive video, keep up the good work!

[Garowen]

hahah kherson was a trap. it is the most advantageous battleground for Ukraine. So they taunted putin with a counteroffensive there so P would send all his spare troops to be trapped behind the river.

[johnnyparallax]

Counter-offensive has increased, indeed, in social media

[josephrobinson]

The fact russians are vacationing in an actively contested territory is hilarious lol. Wtf are they doing there

[viktorakse]

This is not a "normal" counteroffensive. What Ukraine is doing now is "Accelerated Attritional Warfare", by means of attracting the Russians to the difficult-to-defend Kherson region (Russians struggle with the Dnieper river crossings necessary for supply trains), starving them of supplies, and systematically weakening them there. If Ukraine was genuinely planning a large-scale conventional counter in the Kherson direction, I doubt they would have screamed so loudly about their plans - better to keep them secret and distract the enemy to go elsewhere. No, this is the intention - to attract as many rats to the "sinking ship" that is the Kherson oblast, and then slowly kill them off in a situation where Ukraine and not Russia has the tactical and strategic advantage.