Markets Weekly June 22, 2024

#federalreserve #marketsanalysis
PBOC Set to Buy And Sell Bonds
DM Rating Cutting Cycle Continues
Two Theories on Poor Consumer Sentiment

00:00 - Intro
1:16 - PBOC Set to Buy And Sell Bonds
9:02 - DM Rating Cutting Cycle Continues
11:33 - Two Theories on Poor Consumer Sentiment

For my latest thoughts:

For macro courses:

My best seller on monetary policy:

[PietVanTonder]

Got to love the way Joseph simplifies financial concepts in a manner that clearly explains what is going on underneath the hood without making it too technical or lengthy. Universities should definitely integrate this form of teaching in undergrad macro econ classes.

[GladysSasaki]

Back in 2022 when btc was at its cycle low, people where saying btc is done for it's going below $15k US it's going to zero. Well it's down 10% from mid March ath 2024 and now everyone is shitting themselves. That doesn't make any logical sense especially for crypto.Its just a shake out phase, chill people go zoom out at old charts. We are at around 1.4 trillion market cap and only growing, just wait and see the price next year in March it will double....I've been engaged in active trading and managed to grow a nest egg of around 2.3Bitcoin to a decent 24Bitcoin....I'm especially grateful to Linda Wilburn, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.

[tipusultan]

Purchasing a stock may seem straightforward, but selecting the correct stock without a proven strategy can be exceedingly challenging. I've been working on expanding my $210K portfolio for a while, and my primary obstacle is the lack of clear entry and exit strategies. Any advice on this matter would be greatly appreciated.

[littlebitmckee]

Thank you! Just saw you with Mark Moss and really like your work and insights. Just subscribed. I have a feeling I will be a regular ❤❤

[ScottLarrry]

I've been exploring different trading strategies lately, but none seem to provide consistent results. Any suggestions on the most effective approach?

[Lights_Darks]

Thanks, Joseph. Great info on the CPI and the PBOC.

[brandonklosterman]

Consumers are unhappy because everything is much more expensive than it was a few years ago, not just the cost of money. Look at groceries or how expensive it is to eat out. Just because the rate at which prices are going up has slowed doesn't mean people should be confident. They are concerned that prices remain elevated and show no signs of going down. Once prices are raised they rarely ever go down.

[jamesrandolph]

Thank you for the invaluable weekly report. It's so refreshing to hear your brief, relevant, data-driven insights. Keep up the great work!

[angrybear]

looking forward to these recaps from joe every saturday!

[chrisp]

Joseph, my dear friend! Thanks for sharing your weekly pearls of wisdom. The possibility of the PBOC engaging in QE is quite intriguing. Love the vid! 📈🐂🐮

[brianborse]

CPI should include financing costs again. There's nothing problematic with recognizing reality.

Currency debasement and higher borrowing costs go hand in hand. Very simple

[jewlianglim]

Thanks Joseph. It will be interesting to see if consumer sentiments ever led to a recession. Its highly possible that people grumble about higher prices but still pay for it because there is real wage increase!

[littlebitmckee]

If you listen to regular people on TikTok or you talk to your friends, they are most upset that all their money is going to pay the bills. There’s nothing left over for fun or joy. All their money goes towards necessities and it doesn’t even cover their necessities.

[MrUseur]

Hello Joseph, thanks for your market summary.

[BellevueRoy]

In my part of the country, if you reverted to 3 1/2% mortgage rates, I believe homes would be relatively more expensive. The price of a home seems to have increased more than interest rates. I like the economists’ alternate look at inflation. Occupancy expenses are significant to both businesses and consumer.

[wernermesserer]

I is not that the people are stupid, the data are.
There is this rumour, some people have to pay for shelter, food and energy with a significant part of their income.

[sternof]

In 2020 you said everybody were trying to sell tsy and get cash. why then did the yields collapse during that time? shouldn't it be the opposite? If yields are lower then the demand is higher for tsy bonds?
Thanks!

[bfe]

Really, it took a bunch of phd's to figure out figure out the cost of financing impacts normal people even though they have fixed rate mortgages. That's why they took it out of the calculation to begin with, so they could tell everyone inflation was coming down and under control

[jackjhmc]

I think sky news had a chart that showed absolute inflation has gone up 20% in the UK vs 2020, and when wages haven't gone up that much, CPI based on YoY growth failed to capture the reality of cost of living crisis. E.g if price of burger gone up to 120 from 100 since 2020, so saying prices had only gone up 2% over last 12 months seems totally misleading when actual cost has gone up 20%!

[timothypotter]

The left/right sentiments graph is interesting. Overall sentiment trends up with the democrats and down with republicans...