Why Tesla's Robotaxis will DOMINATE Ride Hailing Despite MASSIVE Hurdles [Ding Dong, Uber's Dead]

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Sections:
00:00 - Intro
02:24 - 1 - COST ADVANTAGES
03:47 - -A. COST OF CAR
03:49 - --A1. Cost vs Price
05:35 - --A2. Out of Lease Cars
07:58 - --A3. Lifespan
08:58 - --A4. Reliability + Uptime
10:07 - --A5. Battery Size Optimization
10:51 - --A6. Two Seaters
12:07 - -B. COST OF MAINTENANCE
12:18 - --B1. Evs vs ICE
12:55 - --B2. Production of Parts
13:14 - --B3. Minimizing Repairs By Design
14:17 - --B4. Insurance Savings
14:57 - -C. COST OF ENERGY
15:03 - --C1. Tesla vs Gas
16:15 - --C2. Optimized Charging
17:12 - --C3. Infrastructure
18:21 - --C4. Solar
18:51 - --C5. Vertical Integration
19:31 - -D. COSTS RECAP
20:28 - 2 - THE AWS MOMENT
23:03 - -A. AWS MOMENT #1
26:09 - -B. AWS MOMENT #2
28:11 - -C. REVENUE ADVANTAGE
29:16 - 3 - DECLINING REVENUES
29:18 - -A. LOWER REVENUE PER CAR
30:01 - -B. DRIVERS SHARE OF PIE
30:27 - -C. OFF-PEAK RIDE COLLAPSE
31:35 - 4 - SO GOES DISRUPTION

[CampTeslaFun]

Great points! Also, autonomous cabs will have the built-in 10-20% cost advantage of not having to tip a driver.

[ErikGoff]

Maybe one overlooked point, a robotaxi could also deliver pizzas or bring packages

[andywurst]

To address peak vs average - I'd imagine Tesla would own the average load fleet and use private owner's cars to handle the peak demand. This would minimize the CapEx required by a single entity.

[peterjarneson]

Most important lesson from this video: 
Even some billionaires, who are supposedly financial geniuses, can have no clue what they are talking about regarding Tesla. The tsunami of change that this company will bring is gonna shock and awe a whole lotta people.

[cybergigafactory]

Please do another Robotaxi video!
I agree with most of your points and would love how you see the future of Robotaxis 👍

[RonLWilson]

Quite interesting!

Another use for a Robotaxi during non peek times is to deliver goods such as last mile deliveries.

These can be "manned" by Tesla bots that leave the goods on people front porch and pick up goods from distribution centers.

[bobwallace]

The problem of building a fleet to cover peak demand. Don't overlook the possibility of shaving the peak.

1) Offer much lower per mile rates during off peak. People who have flexible schedules will, to some extent, adjust their time of travel to save money. We might see people start work at 7am rather than during the peak which develops a bit later. Companies might do shift time adjustments for jobs such as call centers as a bene for their not well paid employees or in factories that run two or three shifts per day.

2) Offer reduced rates for being willing to share a ride. If the normal asking rate is $0.80/mile offer $0.40/mile if someone is will to let one or more people share the ride as long as the route is efficient. If that results in an average of two-butts in seats it shaves the need for peak demand car by one. Drop the rate lower and, perhaps, reduce the number of needed cars further.

[alanhall]

The margins will go up huge at first since Tesla will be competing directly with Uber at a slightly lower price. But as the number of robotaxis ramps up, the fare price is going to drop. The Uber model will be gone, and eventually, robotaxis are going to compete with robotaxis. Basic supply and demand. You can't put an infinite number of robotaxis on the road and make infinite money. Consumers will save money. However, the overall utilization/demand will go up dramatically over time as more people dump their cars and switch to hailing, a long slow process that Elon will push for to get people out of ICE, especially older ICE vehicles. Profits will be based on high volume and low margin, like McDonald's. However, a huge amount of profit will be made right from the beginning and for a long time because Tesla will be profiting off making the robotaxis for $20k and putting them on the road collecting $50k of fares. That will be more than a 100% return on investment. However, to speed things up, Tesla will license the FSD to other manufacturers, lowering profits. Still, overall profits are going to be very high until someone else brings a competitive robotaxi system to the market. The technological monopoly won't last forever but it will certainly be more difficult to overcome than making a cheap good-tasting hamburger. Not all robotaxis will be cheap little cars. People will demand and pay for more luxurious vehicles too, and specialty vehicles like trucks to carry furniture and other large items. Perhaps the trucks will come with a robot to load and unload for you?

[robgannon]

As a former Uber driver I can say they are a bad company and the world will be a better place once Uber is gone. I can't wait.

[douggolde]

Tesla needs a van. My family travels with a wheelchair.

[fredhearty]

Thanks for the overview. A second installment, including your financial analysis and implementation strategy, would be much appreciated.

[RaymondVolker]

BG2 are major investors in Uber. So their video is just a stall tactic for people not to dump Uber Stock. They will be the first to jump ship once RoboTaxi is running and proves the disruption. Please let's see Part 2.

[jeffharmed]

IMHO the Cybercab shape will resemble a Smartcar with a high roof to allow seats and cages to be interchangeable: seats during commuter times and cages for the rest of the time shuttling commercial goods in cages from warehouses to stores, replacing the vans and small trucks commonly used today.

[awebinar]

Yes give us an extra video about the cybercap

[randyborges]

Wow, you're an absolute beast man. Amazing content!

[saoirsepaisley]

AWS moment #3: With the addition of a "last foot delivery" robot (Optimus would be awesome but might be overkill), the off-peak robotaxis could do package and food deliveries.

[MoreOnEVs]

I think you are absolutely right about how this will all shake out, though I think it will take a while. I think Tesla will begin its robotaxi network nationwide, only with drivers behind the wheel. They will use FSD while operating which will generate massive amounts of training data very quickly as well as introduce the software to the public in a safe way. Once the Ai becomes capable they will remove drivers, region by region, as legislation allows. In the end, they will disrupt ride hailing, but it won’t happen overnight

[jmattoxriskpro]

Regarding school busses, autonomous vehicles, even existing models could likely get kids to school cheaper than the current plan. This would be especially cheap when school gets out in the afternoon as this is a low demand time for ride hailing.

[MathGPT]

Let’s not forget, Gurley was literally the smartest guy in the room for several years getting Uber to where it is, the biggest private market growth stock possibly in history.

[charliemagpie]

Tx for picking this up.
I had a strong suspicion these 2 smart guys should know better. You were kind to them.

Love to hear more.