#47: After the INF Treaty?

Theodore Postol, Douglas Roche, and Sergey Rogov are all deeply worried because the US and Russia have both declared their intention of ending the INF Treaty, which banned ground launched, medium-ranged missiles. It appears that we will have another nuclear arms race, with risks comparable to the Cuban Missile Crisis.

[thecoolguy]

Awesome discussion, learnt a lot, one for the record books of history.. unless our leaders steer towards the island of sensibleness in time.

[s.l.steinman]

Great discussion. 

Every weapon has its operational envelope; i.e. the range within which it can reliably perform its intended function, whether attacking or defending, thrusting or parrying. Sergey makes a good point about canister interchangeability and identification; dangerous uncertainties may arise when one is unable distinguish between a potential adversary’s shield and his sword; let’s leave aside for the moment situations in which one party’s shield might overlap another party’s accepted swordplay area. Happily, everyone seemed to agree that such issues are not resistant to technical solutions. 

To Doug’s Pearson-esque call for renewed political will to deal with these sorts of potentially calamitous situations, I would add that such will usually only comes from clarity of purpose, something rarely seen in government. Also, this clarity must be rooted in an adequate understanding of our hyper-evolving technological milieu and must include honest insights into the intent of our adversaries and would-be political partners, who—arguably, by necessity—tend to rely upon secrecy and obfuscation.

So, good luck to us! :)