What To Expect From The DNC | 538 Politics Podcast

The Democratic National Convention is upon us. In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, the crew discusses what to expect from the Democrats' weeklong pitch to voters. They also consider how a shorter general election timeline changes the dynamics of the race and how Vice President Kamala Harris's coalition is different from President Joe Biden's.

[PS-rxpq]

The worst part about not having video on these is being unable to admire Geoffrey Skelley's majestic mane 😢

[nineplusten]

It's been a month, and FiveThirtyEight still hasn't turned their model back on. And now they're even uploading podcasts to YouTube without any video. Honestly, I don't think FiveThirtyEight will last much longer after this election. I can't imagine them being around in 2028, or even 2026, unless they’re running with a skeleton crew. I really hope the team has a backup plan for when ABC inevitably decides to shut them down.

[dannyduh]

Why don’t these full episodes ever have videos but the clips do?

[jjazman]

It is frustrating when analysts either misrepresent or don’t understand what margin of error means. Mary talks about how Harris is within the margin of error in midwestern battleground states. Margin of error applies to a single poll. It doesn’t apply when you aggregate multiple polls. For example, suppose you have one poll of 1000 people with a 3% margin of error, and then you aggregate 15 polls of 1000 people, each with a 3% margin of error. You won’t have a 3% margin of error in the average of aggregate polls. The margin of error would be closer to a poll of 15, 000 people so much smaller than 3%. It is true to say that there might be a systemic polling error, but that is not the same as margin of error, and we won’t know what the systemic polling error is until after the election. Even then it will only be a guess since you are comparing election results with polls that were done months earlier. I don’t think Mary, or any analysts who understands how this works, should use the term margin of error when talking about aggregate polls, when what they really mean is systematic polling error. But the problem is that it is unquantifiable right now so only a guess.

[ACMartin]

Odd to drill Kamala on deep detail when trump doesn’t even have that. Shout out to Gaylen for splashing some common sense on it in regards to politics versus actually governing.

[douglasfisher]

How do you figure presidential elections are about policy or an accurately informed electorate? Ring, ring — reality calling!

[RemedialRob]

Podcasts without any video should remain on podcast sites. 538 really has gone to poop.

[xkeo]

You guys talk at 13:00 min about she needing to do that and do this to give substance! You have got to be kidding!
Can you pls do a podcast on Trump substance pls? 5-10 min long at least. How is it that you guys sound so smart yet don’t apply the same standards yo both candidates. Maybe in these days politics its more about being likable & no substance since thats the game corporate media plays. Where substance its only important if it is to attack the party that the most money supports. Substance maybe overrated. Do a poll on that!

[scottygordon]

Hey, Galen’s in my district!!! Where’s he hanging out? Is he in Binghamton???

[TrentSLucas]

The RNC did not have any establishment politicians such as George W. Bush speak at their convention. I’m happy about that. As a lifelong Republican who went to Iraq and Kyrgyzstan under President Bush, I’m glad my party has kicked them out. If you want to a party that supports globalism, endless wars, corporate and bank bailouts, and endless lobbying from the weapons manufacturers then go vote Democrat. You guys can keep the Bushes and the Cheney’s.

[ckq]

25:00 gender gap being only single digits is surprising, I was imagining it'd be around 25 or so

[TrentSLucas]

The RNC did not have any establishment politicians such as George W. Bush speak at their convention. I’m happy about that. As a lifelong Republican who went to Iraq and Kyrgyzstan under President Bush, I’m glad my party has kicked them out. If you want to a party that supports globalism, endless wars, corporate and bank bailouts, and endless lobbying from the weapons manufacturers then go vote Democrat. You guys can keep the Bushes and the Cheney’s.