Pattern Change, Severe Weather Uptick Expected Next Week

For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.

After a bit of a lull in robust severe weather across the US, a prolonged pattern change is expected to begin early next week. In this video, we'll discuss the current state of the atmosphere and why we've been in and will continue to be in a relative lull in severe weather before diving into next week's pattern change, which looks to feature persistent troughing across the western US acting upon rich low-level moisture, a classic combo for severe weather across the central US. We'll also give an update on how our tornado season forecast has gone so far.

0:00 Introduction
2:01 Tornado data so far
5:26 Discussing our current stretch of low-end severe potential
15:11 Long-range model data, severe weather uptick next week

[doughebert]

A tornado passed just to my south yesterday the 14th, it traveled along I-10 in Louisiana causing damage in Henderson La. I have a radar app on my laptop so I can follow the storms and warn my family as needed. Video's like yours help's me out a lot so many thanks.

[CharlieWeb]

Thanks for keeping me in the loop. I greatly appreciate what you do.

[stacie]

We had a random tornado at a golf course in Hollister, MO, up my way yesterday. This year it seems tornadoes can fall out of anything at anytime.

[Derrick]

Thanks, Trey. Gives everyone a little time to check the tires and equipment, then dive into next week. 🤙

[JP-xcix]

Great info and much appreciated, as always. Looking forward to watching this unfold over the next 10 days!

[severeweatheralert]

Any time there is a severe weather risk i always go to your channel to see what your thoughts and opinions are on that severe weather risk. So for that thx you very much ❤

[benjaminlee]

we have been hammered with these wind bags the last 10 days here in Mississippi. Hopefully after Thursday and Friday we can get a break

[ThatLouisianaChick]

I have severe tornado anxiety. Well weather anxiety in general. We’ve had multiple hit Louisiana in the last few days. I found this post from Reddit and I’ve heard exposure to my dead can help and also learning about storms. This so far has helped me cope. Thank you so much for these videos.

[alexlubbers]

We're currently at Halftime for the SupercellBowl. The halftime show was performed by Lady Aurora

[ThistleKing]

Thanks for the update bro I’ll have to watch it on my lunch break

[OrderOfTwisted]

Thank you, Trey! We appreciate all that you do! 🫶🏼

[laurendefazio]

My excitement can no longer be contained 🤩🤩🤩🤩🤩🤩

[jaredgrubb]

Trey you have no clue how important these videos are to me! Went through all of you skew t and holograph video series several times over a year ago and I noticed how you didn't post many forecasts...lately you have and I hang on every one with ur wisdom. Over the last fee weeks your "flies in the ointment" have come to fruition...over-par from SPC analysis for each day. I crave these videos knowing I'll get better info than what's publicity available lol

[calebcopeland]

That 2 week outbreak sequence had over 300 tornadoes and 2 different outbreaks that had over 130 tornaodes 😮😮 is it fair to call that a super sequence?

[spyroaster]

It has been so tiring with all of these severe weather risks. It feels like it's never-ending anymore. I wish that it would take a long break and let us all breathe.

[Scarecrowwx]

NIU was showing more robust threats as well, with areas in the TX panhandle, central and southeastern OK being prime targets

[jennyparbs]

"Storm chaser's paradise" - words I like to hear!

[colewiley]

Thanks so much for the video. As a current meteorology student seeing how you recognize patterns totally improves my forecasting abilities. I just had a quick question: What are some benefits of using the NAM for severe weather forecasting?

[kevinjoyce]

2024 doesn't give up on tornadoes, the way it's looking you could easily see a brief spin up on these three days. Looks like Gulf is srtu for another event. Once again, enjoy your discussions Trey, you inspire me and have helped me a lot on soundings!

[appsaucetech]

Hey trey, I would like to a see a video on the barnstall ef4. Back in 2021 is when i started getting into tornadoes and the meotorology behind the. I remember just watching the radar and seeing the debris ball, not knowing what it was. Now that I know more, I understand just what exactly that means. Recently I remember just watching the barnstall cell and how large the debris ball was, and it reminded me of the rolling fork monster. I'd find a deep dive of the meteorology interesting as it was expected tornado outbreak with a hatched high risk but storms didn't act as expected.