Flawed maths models: predicting temperature analogy

An analogy to understand how covid predictive models work. This is a very brief extract from my presentation to the PANDA Open Science Meeting on 7 December 2022 (full video will be posted on rumble, odysee and bitchute)

[KeithWhittingham]

The 'science' presented to us as fact is, quite frankly, insulting.

[teac]

Thank you for turning on that fan and saving us all.

[aesopstortoise]

Got it! Next summer I'm definitely turning a fan on in my garden. Goodbye global warming!

[thomasbentele]

A fan, its genius.
I suppose, a fan could have saved us all from covid too,  
if only the lobby behind the Imperial College had taken it into consideration.

[scottc]

Seriously? I would love to refute what you're saying, but the proof is easily observable. It's just so surreal.

[visservrouw]

It is embarrassing that a good few article based on this premise were published in reasonably good journals

[fieryflowergirl]

We're in a period of Grand Solar Minimum in my humble view based on what I have read. No I am not a Doctor or a professor. I don't learn from indoctrinated teachings, I learn from gut instinct and alternative readings. Having worked outside for over 30 years producing naturally grown plants, I look up at the chem trails, I follow weather patterns (manipulated in my view) and I see no birds dying around me from flu.... luckily we have no 5G towers here yet in our village. People need to know that 5G is not about fast internet, it's a military grade weapon and it is not condusive to thriving wildlife or humanity. So authorities can go away with their 'Green speak' because it is far from green and there is a growing movement against their inverted policies. Communitarianism is death to community life, people need to wake up

[jeremyashford]

Your elegant temperature analogy could equally well be applied to ... temperatures.

Temperature modelling has used a small period of time with an upward trend to predict an ongoing upward trend, deliberately obscuring the fact that the long term trend has been rise followed by fall followed by rise followed by fall. This is what has actually happened during my own lifetime, with the last peak occurring in 2015 and mean global surface temperature falling consistently for the last seven years. If we were to make a climate model based on the last seven years, we would be experiencing an ice age in a century. Watch for the next wave of “coming ice age” alarmism. The alarmists do get tiring. And they just don’t pay attention.

[Hickalum]

Calling them ‘models’ is very flattering, and subtly deceptive.
Not least because you can’t put small perturbations into a pandemic (or the climate).
So, unlike Engineering models, they cannot be validated, making them little more than guess work.