2024 Tornado Season Recap and Forecast Verification

In this video, we'll take a look back at our 2024 tornado season forecast (link below) and assess how it performed this season. After a brief review of the factors that modulate tornado frequency and distribution in the US each spring, we'll go month by month from March to June, recapping some of the more notable events in each month to get a picture of how our initial forecast fared.

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Contents

0:00 Introduction
0:40 How modulating factors progressed throughout the season
3:57 Review of our 2024 tornado season forecast
4:24 March recap
5:35 April recap
8:11 May recap
10:44 June recap
12:24 Wrap-up

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Resources:

"US regional tornado outbreaks and their links to spring ENSO phases

Supplementary figures for Lee et al. (2016) accessible through the hyperlink in his article above

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[TRGTornado]

Great video! This season popped off just like everyone thought!

[spyroaster]

Being in the Ohio Valley, this whole spring season was terrifying. It felt like any day could have been very dangerous given how extremely active it was. The scariest times for me personally were the start of April and the end of May. We had that big Moderate Risk in early April that produced a tornado outbreak. I was horrified by how big the risk zone was that day. The one in late May was like the last push for an outbreak that did come to fruition in Tennessee and western Kentucky. What followed right after was a much quieter week or so in June.

[zyrtor]

Trey drops a recap video? I clicked, paused to get a drink, and now I can fully enjoy.

[Ajolyfellow]

Hey man! I live in SEMO. I was a mile away from being hit by the Sikeston EF3 on May 26th...it was so early, and in an MCS, I didn't expect it! I was even outside recording the wind, oblivious to the danger. Lesson learned! I did notice the wind changed direction as well, but as always, it was a great summary!

[paradoxicalpoet]

Rewatching the original forecast video with the knowledge of what happened this year is crazy! You're saying that we could see potential hot spots around NE, and Iowa, as well as TX, OK, and KS and im just thinking about 4/26-27, 5/21, and 5/25. The forecast was on point almost to an unnerving degree specifically April and May which played out almost exactly as you forecasted. I always get excited seeing new videos from you, great video as always!

[zarhle]

Perfect! I’ve really been wanting to understand more about the background patterns that lead to such a hyperactive year so I’m very excited to dive into this video. Thank you as always Trey. I’m thankful for your videos, it’s a wonderful service you provide to the weather community.

[jimmyseaver]

Absolutely nutty season, especially with how these Ohio Valley outbreaks caught folks by surprise. Definitely going to be interested to see how the cold season will go when it comes to tornadic activity.

[CeltonHenderson]

Overall I'd say it was a pretty good prediction for what ended up happening. That sequence from April 26th into early May was just unbelievable. Shame so many of those tornadoes in Oklahoma waited until after dark and in more populated areas to produce though. Had a couple things gone differently those 3 high end risks in Oklahoma could have catapulted this year to breaking some records.

[ChrisWhite]

I believe that we gonna have a very active 2nd season for tornadoes starting in the fall

[tornadostories]

Thanks for a valuable recap, especially referencing the ENSO modulation and EML capping factors caused by drought. I was waiting for March to really kick off. I caught the NOAA radio warning live for Alta Vista, and then the mid-April outbreak solidified that it was going to be a significant season.

[annabobanaasmr]

I got into a wreck (stuck in between an idiot sandwhich) while chasing in OK in April, and what do you know, multiple outbreaks in my own neighborhood while I had no car! I knew I was missing out in one of the best years for chasing I'd ever see. My VW that I've been working on with the dad is almost done, and I'll be getting a few custom things done on it for chasing next year! I'm also haflway through my HAM radio study for the basic license. So hoping to have that tool available too :)
This year was gonna be the one I do some real storm chaser shit, but I got that plus some with the commute xp

[fts_space_shark]

Looking forward to next spring’s forecast!

[Meathead]

Late April through May was just insane. I remember waking up multiple days in a row saying to myself “welp there’s gonna be a strong to violent tornado today” and then later on in the day a strong to violent tornado would happen. Fall tornado season is definitely looking interesting as well…

[ryguy]

Awesome recap for an even more insane year

[justinnielsen]

Honestly that was a fun 12 minutes reliving like a dozen tornadoes we saw this year

[TornadogirlCT]

Great video Trey!! I was there with ETT for the Hawley, TX tornado.

[StormChaserBrandonPayne]

Id say the forecast panned out pretty well, it might behoove me to schedule next years chasecation around your forecast

[davian]

Great recap on the season so far. This has been a crazy year for not just tornadoes but severe weather in general. It has been non stop all year. Though tornadoes are dwindling right now due to summer there have been some insane wind storms/derechos lately, including a couple the past few days causing significant tree damage and power outages in Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma and Arkansas. This year has packed a punch and we are fixing to start the second "mini" fall tornado season here in probably about a month and a half. Will be interesting to see the final tornado count this year.

[leoscaremporium]

Minnesota and North Dakota started off a little slow but it picked up later on. Minnesota in particular had June 12th, July 31st, and August 5th. Edit - And July 13th in ND.

[LeviW]

Great video Trey 😊 and i do believe that your forecast was more accurate than anybody else's and it was a crazy season and now we have to turn to the fall season