The Big Picture - Decoding Employment Data

India’s unemployment rate stood at 6.1% in FY18, official data showed, highlighting the challenge that confronts the Narendra Modi-led government. The data isn’t comparable with that of past years, the government contended, in effect seeking to refute previous leaked reports that said they showed the unemployment rate was at a 45-year high. The Periodic Labour Force Survey of the National Sample Survey Office released on Friday showed the unemployment rate in the country in FY18 was at 5.3% in rural India and 7.8% in urban India, resulting in overall unemployment rate of 6.1%. The joblessness among males on all India basis was 6.2 per cent, while it was 5.7 per cent in case of females. Highlighting the difference between the PLFS and the earlier surveys conducted every five years, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation said the older assessments used paper forms to collect information on different aspects of the labour force. In the PLFS, information has been collected from all members of sample households using the computer-assisted personal interviewing (CAPI) method with inbuilt validation rules through tablets. On this edition of the big picture we will decode the employment data and the way forward.

Guest - Ajay Dua, Former Secretary, Ministry of Commerce,
Shishir Sinha, Sr. Dy. Editor, Hindu Business Line,
Pravin Srivastava, Secretary, MoSPI,

Anchor - Frank Rausan Pereira

[shashiketan]

Unemployment data methodology:
- Earlier paper forms to collect information on different aspects of the labour force.
- Time involved in collecting, analyzing earlier was huge
- Based on per capita expenditure
- In the new PLFS, information has been collected from all members of sample households using the computer-assisted personal interviewing (CAPI) method with
- inbuilt validation rules through tablets.
- quarterly visits in urban & annual visits in rural
- ILO: as economy develops decline in participation especially female

Statistical data should be comparable to previous data as
- Sample size is large enough: 700 odd viallges 5900 urban, 4 lakh househld
- Low Error margin

Analysis of data:
- Unemployment rate - 6.1% in FY18: 5.3% rural India & 7.8% in urban
- Joblessness among males - 6.2%, females - 5.7%
- Among women: urban over 10%, rural < 4%
- Participation rate lower in urban
- In rural agri is considered as employment while in urban only 9-6 job is considered
- Quarterly Unemployment rate in 2018 - 9.6% in urban
- EPFO - 2cr since sept 2017 got them in formal sector
- Employment for illiterate & Post graduates is high.

Challenges:
- Organised sector is not capable in creating jobs: Entire formal sector - 35mn jobs
- Rural - agri based mostly - must move to other allied activities.
- Urban migration: cities are exhausted with migration capabilities.
- Skill gap among job creators & literates.

Steps to be taken:
- Jobs in rural areas to prevent migration: livestock, milk revolution - additional activities
Solar clusters in rural area
- MSME: The Job creator.large industries are mostly assemblers
- Services catering to large industries
- Startup India, MUDRA, Stand up India work in tandem.
- Rural - farm size reduced: 86% with less than 2 hectare - some kind of community activity.
sikkim - tourism in particular area, earning more than $100
- Government procurement & incentives to industries based on employment rather than capital
Promotional scheme in textile sector last year
- Towards more formalization.
- Focus on manufacturing sector: 17% to 25% (target)

The new data on unemployment presents a grim reality. Use of new methodology, technology & quarterly surveys are helping to present more accurate data which are the right kind of input
to the policy makers. Also it needs to be independent with legal backing. Urgent & Innovative steps need to be taken to convert our population into demographic dividend where rural area can act as a catalyst.

[anshumanmahanty]

Such a civilised discussion between learned and measured men. RSTV is a breath of fresh air in this modern media age of cacophony and illiterate noobs shouting full throttle.

[rajthemystery]

Frank !!! Are you going to attend tomorrow's upsc cse exam ?? You will definitely clear it. 😊😊

[kalpanareddy]

This channel is really authetic to follow.THIS TYPE OF DISCUSSION MAKES ONE TO DESIFER THE CURRENT TOPICS.AND MAKES US TO THINK IN REALITY .

[mayurpachpind]

1) employment creation any all sectors and in any specific sectors
2) Skill gap should be bridged by creating robust mechanism .
3) Consolidate existing schemes with a view to achieve desirable outcomes
4) Data collection mechanism ought to be free of executive interference
5) Free and autonomous government institute governed by legislative framework rather than executive dictation
6) thrust on employment intensive sectors . Incentives based on the number of employment industrial unit generates
7)

[openmind]

Skill development is first priority.
10+2 must be reform with theory and skills

[parthaghosh]

All the panelists had mentioned a lot of causes for rising unemployment but they missed one big point and that is the use of Artificial Intelligence in the public as well as private sectors. According to me this issue also need to be addressed.

[drbipinnishad]

this is very very useful for me & UPSC Aspirations


A lote of thnx to RSTV

[mangalmurti]

What skills Mr. Praveen is talking about. I know a guy who did btech and took training in thermal power plant operation and maintenance from NPTI, ministry of power. He didn't get job. He then did MA economics and pursuing phD and still finding hard to get a proper don't think he lacks skill...unfortunately that guy is me

[doordiecalmmindwins]

Thank you and best of luck sir for tomorrow's upsc exam 😁😁

[bhagyasinghgurjar]

It is very very critical time for India on different front from economic crisis to volatility in geopolitical area and others

Now we have to step up our efforts honesty

[nishantsrivastava]

India's problem is not employment but wages, formalisation ....thats why the one who dominate over other( like in transforming traditional indian society men dominates over women, urban over rural )have higher aspirataion so they (the one who dominates) tend to have higher aspiration of jobs...so they keep searching for some thing good and that keeps them unemployed...thats why the more the higher education the more is unemployment

Incentives(govt procurement etc) could b given on ratio of capital/workers...

[bokulhussain]

Frank...sir.., can you remove the background motion visuals, its distract our attention sometimes... You may give a static ad..

[Kumarpravinofficial]

I am quite surprised that these surveyors have never visited either at my place or my relatives or friends. Who is the targeted population in rural and urban areas where they visit ? I might be unlucky in this case that's why any surveyor I have never visited my place

[shubh]

What a puppet secretary can say about failure of govt. policies...

[niteshgoswami]

It's very difficult for any government to provide such mass amount of jobs. we know our population is much higher compare to others.
As India is an agricultural country, about more than 50% of its population's earning come from agriculture. India must focus on manufacturing sectors to provide jobs to its large population.
As per NSSO, India's unemployment rate is 6.1%. and it is 45 years highest.
The Modi government had taken some strengent action such as demonitisation, gst which obviously sluggish the exonomy for some time. but for long term we can expect positive sign of these action.

[Kumarpravinofficial]

This is such a great and deep analysis of statistics however depend list coding phases on the structural flaws which are causing the unemployment and will have to criticize the government to some extent and suppressing the data raises the question on the intention of the government

[Kumarpravinofficial]

Depend list who is wearing pink shirt is wrong with his facts because when you go to the rural area and you ask for employment the person who is is earning small livelihood through agriculture will never say that he is employed and I think panelists have no Grounds route experience

[sandyhills]

How does LPR affect Unemployment rate.
Unemployment rate = No of people currently unemployed in the LABOUR FORCE.

[muktisharma]

Sir I think we should focus on the development of infrastructure that will provide a platform to the skill or unskill work force.
On the other hand the education system need to be paid more attention.