Economist Rosenberg Warns of a U.S. Fiscal Cliff

May.03 -- David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Rosenberg Research, discusses inflation expectations, what has surprised him in the economic recovery, and why he sees a fiscal cliff ahead for the U.S. later this year. He speaks on “Bloomberg Surveillance.”

[joeyb]

Rosenberg has been calling for this for years, leading to underperformance. I mean, even a broken clock is right twice a day...he might get it eventually. This is an example where intelligent analysis makes him 100% right, but it will also make him wrong when it comes to returns.

[richardzimmermann]

Why would growth stocks be the sector that outperforms under this scenario? How are they supposed to finance their growth if there’s a fiscal cliff etc.

[jaym]

Repeat after the FED "There is NO inflation" (and then click your heels 3 times).

[JohnDaniels]

We do not have inflation???? Houses have doubled since 2010

[prestonvanhorn]

The fiscal cliff that he’s referring to in this clip simply means reality.

The everything bubble is around us because of this fake fiscal world we’re living in, once that dries up and we get back to reality the prices (equities, crypto, real estate, etc) will also correct accordingly.

[DocHoliday]

So these guys think you can print 6 trillion dollars and nothing If thats the case keep printing and cancel taxes 🤷🏻‍♂️

[damonkatos]

Every time I hear a nay sayer on business news, the markets set a new record the next day.

[JeffLaRochelle]

The market is priced as if 0 interest rates will become the norm and the economy will keep go unhindered. If you believe that, then by all means keep buying....

[nohopeequalsnofear]

Its a bubble. This destroy many people

[kathymoran]

I am now kinda of worried about inflation. If Rosenberg says no inflation, likely bad inflation as he has always been wrong about the market.

[johnz.]

Our economy is based on idealism and fantasy, its definitely not based in reality. Lmao

[professionalaesthetics]

Wait, I didn’t get the explanation of the fiscal cliff? Oh, there wasn’t one. Clickbait.

[Bonescratcher]

It’s difficult for you to wrap your head around that? Lol. It’s called QE infinity and Fiscal policy infinity

[MrWaterbugdesign]

I hear many people, including Buffet, talking about the climbing prices of building materials and seeing it as inflation. But it looks short term to me, 9-12 months. Demand for everything has been high making transportation a bottleneck. It looks more as supply problem which can be fixed, delivery expectations can adjust. Prices will likely stay higher than pre-covid, but I expected many prices to come down. There's not a lot of reason for lumber to stay 200% higher long term. But this is going to be scary. I suspect by next year people will be scared about deflation...OMG lumber dropped 175%!!!! Yeah, back to "normal".

[bob___]

The Fed is required by statute to adopt policies that balance inflation against employment, and the unemployment rate is more than double what it was pre-covid. It seems likely that we will take a one-time hit on inflation, maybe in the 5+ percent ballpark, which won't be recovered even if the inflation rate gets back to the 2 percent ballpark a couple of years from now. There really isn't any choice, unless you're comfortable with the spectre of bread lines and evictions. On the fiscal situation, the fact that Congress has been habitually irresponsible with the budget since the Kennedy Administration doesn't mean the current fiscal measures are unnecessary. It's just that we find ourselves in the fiscal position of Britain in World War I when we want to be in the fiscal position of the US in World War II.

[xavy]

the reason is naked shorts with there synthetic shares that’s the problem

[johnsirko]

Companies beating low ball earnings estimates???? Does not change the markets p/e's

[robertravensbergen]

ok i got a real why is does every question on bloomberg surveillance take thirty minutes to get out of the presenter's mouth????

[frederickmiles]

Market makers risk appettite compared the reality of the global economy will lead to a sharp crash.

Inflation will be transitory, crunching profit margins, and leading to reduced productivity and higher prices - with little demand able to meet those higher prices leading to dis-inflation and eventual deflation.

[perdido]

I have an idea. Let's seize the means of production and put a stop to all this madness. We could march the bankers and their share holders off to a nice re education camp while we install our own banking system which does not charge us interest. Let's make our utility grid public owned and tell their share holders to take a hike. Somebody would need to break the news to Exxon that we the people now own the oil under our feet, not them and their shareholders.