Barometer Reading Webcast: August 13, 2024

Chapters:
00:00 – Introduction by Dave Burrows and overview of today's discussion

01:00 Importance of August liquidity and the impact of reduced trading volumes
01:14 Diana Avidor’s role in discussing trading dynamics

02:01 Overview of recent market performance since 2013
03:10 S&P performance and recent pullbacks, July and recent recovery
04:00 Bounce back of the S&P and movement of key moving averages, NASDAQ 100 performance

05:31 Yen’s reversal and impact on global markets
06:09 Japanese stock market reaction and Warren Buffett’s investment

07:03 Discussion on whether recent market weakness is due to economic data or technical factors
07:21 Diana Avidor’s analysis of recent sell-off triggers
08:17 Yen’s impact and market structure issues

09:03 Quantitative trading and flow mismatches
09:18 Goldman Sachs report on market selling and buying trends
10:01 Market reaction and Warren Buffett’s investments

10:12 CTA supply and the scale of recent flows ($81 billion in 48 hours)
10:24 Impact of volatility on CTA rules and required market adjustments
10:50 Discussion on the recent spike in the VIX (volatility index)
11:16 Comparison of recent VIX spike to historical spikes

13:23 Analysis of the VIX returning to normal levels and implications for market stability.

13:30 Impact of US dollar strength and its role as a safe haven
14:02 US dollar’s recent decline and its effect on risk assets
14:28 Observations on interest rates and yields’ influence on the dollar

14:50 Analysis of recent S&P price movements and gaps
15:40 Upcoming market catalysts: CPI data, Jackson Hole, Nvidia earnings
16:21 Current market conditions and potential for short-term back and forth movements

17:02 Overview of earnings season performance and revisions
18:20 Current economic data trends: ISM Manufacturing, ISM Services, jobless claims
18:39 The FED's tightening cycle and its impact on economic indicators

19:31 Desired outcomes: slowing inflation and increased liquidity from the FED

19:43 Equally weighted S&P's performance and market consolidation
20:02 Canadian market resilience and sector performance (financials, industrials, energy)
21:43 Comparison of stock and bond performance since October lows

22:10 Overview of commodities performance, including gold and copper
22:27 Gold's significant year-to-date increase and its technical pattern
23:03 Gold's bull market potential and central bank influence

24:03 Strategy for focusing on sectors showing resilience and positive performance
26:04 Current market indicators and short-term improvements
29:03 – Materials sector resilience

30:26 Overview of healthcare sector resilience, particularly Lilly
31:11 Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) performance
31:51 Technology sector challenges and semiconductor index performance

32:38 Consumer sector performance, notable positions like Costco and Dollarama, and recent developments with Chipotle and Starbucks

33:33 Current portfolio weights and strategic adjustments in financials, energy, and technology sectors
34:01 Cash position and risk management in response to market conditions

34:42 Introduction of James Callahan and discussion on recent sales including Nvidia, Amazon, and Freeport-McMoRan
37:04 Portfolio management principles and risk management strategies

39:43 Lilly’s products showing better efficacy compared to competitors and increasing consumer preference
39:50 Lilly’s strong stock performance relative to the market and its positive outlook
40:02 Portfolio's average PE and dividend growth compared to the market
40:53 Volatility levels and credit spreads; impact on financial conditions

42:10 Flexibility with cash and approach to market volatility and potential investment opportunities
42:31 Current tech holdings including Apple, Broadcom, Microsoft, Motorola Solutions, Meta, and Google

44:01 Stance on private equity and its performance in the current environment
45:37 Discussion on geopolitical risks, particularly related to Russia and Ukraine
47:46 Market outlook for the coming weeks and approach to cash management

[BarometerCap]

@felicitymabudusha4761 let us know what you think of the timestamps! Hope this was helpful, we will be including them moving forward. We appreciate your suggestions!