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Emil Kalinowski: BIS Data, Warning Indicators For A Systemic Banking Crisis (RCS 197)
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Interview original date: October 5th, 2021
Topics- BIS data sets: Early warning indicators for a systemic banking crisis, national economies recessions. If a country trips these indicators they have an increased chance for this crisis. The BIS gives 5 indicators/measures relative to each national trend and how much each country has exceeded those thresholds: 1. Credit to GDP gap: Private debt compared to the trend of each country.
2. Total debt service ratio: Debt being paid relative to income (private sector) compared to the 20 year average.
3. Households relative to income: Interest payments.
4. Cross border claims: Capital flows, foreign investments coming into the countries. Bubbles, risk.
5. Residential property prices: Real prices (inflation adjusted prices).
There are 15 countries that have crossed 2 or more of these 5 thresholds: New Zealand, Germany, Brazil, Slovak Republic, Chile, Switzerland, Hong Kong, Russia, China, France, Sweden, North Korea, South Korea, Czech Republic, Canada.
Topics- BIS data sets: Early warning indicators for a systemic banking crisis, national economies recessions. If a country trips these indicators they have an increased chance for this crisis. The BIS gives 5 indicators/measures relative to each national trend and how much each country has exceeded those thresholds: 1. Credit to GDP gap: Private debt compared to the trend of each country.
2. Total debt service ratio: Debt being paid relative to income (private sector) compared to the 20 year average.
3. Households relative to income: Interest payments.
4. Cross border claims: Capital flows, foreign investments coming into the countries. Bubbles, risk.
5. Residential property prices: Real prices (inflation adjusted prices).
There are 15 countries that have crossed 2 or more of these 5 thresholds: New Zealand, Germany, Brazil, Slovak Republic, Chile, Switzerland, Hong Kong, Russia, China, France, Sweden, North Korea, South Korea, Czech Republic, Canada.
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