Getting Ahead in Today's China: From Optimism to Pessimism

Jan. 16, 2025: Getting Ahead in Today's China: From Optimism to Pessimism

Against the backdrop of China’s post-1978 economic transformation, recent challenges such as COVID-19 have prompted speculations about rising popular pessimism regarding inequalities and opportunities to get ahead. This study compares findings from three new nationally representative surveys conducted in 2023 with three earlier surveys from 2004, 2009 and 2014. Results reveal a significant attitudinal shift, with 2023 respondents expressing markedly more critical views about the fairness of current inequality patterns. Respondents in the 2023 surveys increasingly attribute poverty and wealth to structural factors like unequal opportunities rather than to variations in merit. Respondents also reported lower expectations for income growth compared with the earlier surveys. While not indicating imminent threats to political stability, such trends suggest that China’s leaders will likely face increasing skepticism and even critical popular responses as they try to mobilize their citizens to confront the serious challenges that China faces in coming years.

[ZhangWei]

My question is, will the CCP survive a prolonged economic correction? I suspect we'll have to wait and see. I'm hopeful for a Taiwan style liberal renaissance on mainland China🤞