HFIP Annual Meeting 2023 | Day 2: 4A Hurricane Observations Panel

The primary objective of this meeting was to discuss key HFIP strategies and present Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) preliminary operational assessments from the Initial Operating Capability (IOC) release utilized in 2023 and early results & lessons learned from real-time developmental experiment results for future upgrades to HAFS. This information will be used to inform and outline the work required to progress HAFS toward Full Operating Capacity (FOC) anticipated in 2027. These data will foster developing efficient pathways forward to progressing a world-leading, reliable, and skillful model guidance on TC track and intensity (including rapid intensification), storm size, genesis, storm surge, rainfall, and tornadoes associated with TCs and Socio-Economic impacts. Additional objectives will include further development of ideas to be included in the next generation goals for HFIP as part of the upcoming new 5-yr (2025-2030) and 10-yr (2025-2035) strategic plans. These goals will focus on advancing forecast and communication of all hazards from TCs; and incorporate risk communication research to create more effective watch & warning, and probabilistic risk products with a focus on vulnerable communities and industries through the use of social, behavioral, and economic sciences. As well as approaches for further enhancement of the HAFS role as the UFS Hurricane application while fostering even deeper integration of ideas and potential from other aspects of the larger UFS community both inside and outside of the TC realm.