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The Dollar Milkshake Theory (w/ Brent Johnson) | Expert View | Real Vision™
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Santiago Capital CEO Brent Johnson rejoins Real
Vision with a plethora of predictions that revolve around a
strengthening dollar. Johnson believes that a global currency
crisis looms, but that there is a bull case to be made for the
greenback, gold and U.S. equities.
About Expert View:
The Expert View covers discussions on the topics that really matter, right now. Expert guests answer a series of questions on thematic topics that investors most want to know about, offering informative, actionable, and relevant market insight. It’s like being in the same room as an expert investor and being able to ask all the questions you really want answers to.
About Real Vision™:
Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™.
Connect with Real Vision™ Online:
The Dollar Milkshake Theory (w/ Brent Johnson) | Expert View | Real Vision™
Transcript:
We've seen a nice bounce in the dollar after losing 10% to 12% on the dollar over the last 12 to 18 months. So I think it's a good time to discuss this. I really think the dollar move higher is really just getting started. Now, that doesn't mean that there's not going to be starts and stops, and in the short term, it's probably due for somewhat of a pause or even a short pullback. But one thing I want to get across to people is this move is only just getting started. The dollar, in my opinion, is going to go much, much higher over the next year to two years.
And so as I get into what the actual dollar milkshake theory is, it really comes down to the fact that I think the whole world is really one trade right now. And it's the trade on the dollar. Everything wraps around the dollar. I'm going to talk about gold after a while, but I think even gold-- all roads go through the dollar. So even though I'm very bullish gold long-term, that road also goes through the dollar. And so at the end of the day, why I think the dollar is so important is because whether you're talking about a company, whether you're talking about a family, or whether you're talking about a country, everything comes down to cash flow. Everything investing ultimately comes down to cash flow. And if you don't have enough supply of cash, then you need flow of cash coming through to keep operations going. And I really think that's where the whole monetary system is right now. And that's really the heart of the dollar milkshake theory. And so I'm going to get into that as we go further into the conversation. Now, one thing I want to make clear is this is not a story that ends well. This is a story that ends very, very badly. But I think the road to badly is much different than a lot of my peers think it is. To get really into the theory, we all know that the central banks of the world injected $20 trillion of new money into the global economy over the last 10 years. And I kind of title this as this is the milkshake that all the different countries created. They pushed down on their syringes, and they injected this tons of liquidity into the market-- euros, yen, pounds, yuan, dollars. And they created this soup or this milkshake of all this liquidity out there. But now, while the rest of the world is still pushing down on their syringes, the United States has-- we've gotten this monetary policy divergence, where we're not using a syringe anymore. We're no longer injecting liquidity. In fact, we've swapped out our syringe for a straw. And so as we lift up on our interest rates, that sucks that liquidity to the US domestic markets. It sucks that liquidity up into our domestic markets. And I think it's going to push asset prices higher. In other words, we're going to drink the milkshake that the rest of the world is still mixing.
Vision with a plethora of predictions that revolve around a
strengthening dollar. Johnson believes that a global currency
crisis looms, but that there is a bull case to be made for the
greenback, gold and U.S. equities.
About Expert View:
The Expert View covers discussions on the topics that really matter, right now. Expert guests answer a series of questions on thematic topics that investors most want to know about, offering informative, actionable, and relevant market insight. It’s like being in the same room as an expert investor and being able to ask all the questions you really want answers to.
About Real Vision™:
Real Vision™ is the destination for the world’s most successful investors to share their thoughts about what’s happening in today's markets. Think: TED Talks for Finance. On Real Vision™ you get exclusive access to watch the most successful investors, hedge fund managers and traders who share their frank and in-depth investment insights with no agenda, hype or bias. Make smart investment decisions and grow your portfolio with original content brought to you by the biggest names in finance, who get to say what they really think on Real Vision™.
Connect with Real Vision™ Online:
The Dollar Milkshake Theory (w/ Brent Johnson) | Expert View | Real Vision™
Transcript:
We've seen a nice bounce in the dollar after losing 10% to 12% on the dollar over the last 12 to 18 months. So I think it's a good time to discuss this. I really think the dollar move higher is really just getting started. Now, that doesn't mean that there's not going to be starts and stops, and in the short term, it's probably due for somewhat of a pause or even a short pullback. But one thing I want to get across to people is this move is only just getting started. The dollar, in my opinion, is going to go much, much higher over the next year to two years.
And so as I get into what the actual dollar milkshake theory is, it really comes down to the fact that I think the whole world is really one trade right now. And it's the trade on the dollar. Everything wraps around the dollar. I'm going to talk about gold after a while, but I think even gold-- all roads go through the dollar. So even though I'm very bullish gold long-term, that road also goes through the dollar. And so at the end of the day, why I think the dollar is so important is because whether you're talking about a company, whether you're talking about a family, or whether you're talking about a country, everything comes down to cash flow. Everything investing ultimately comes down to cash flow. And if you don't have enough supply of cash, then you need flow of cash coming through to keep operations going. And I really think that's where the whole monetary system is right now. And that's really the heart of the dollar milkshake theory. And so I'm going to get into that as we go further into the conversation. Now, one thing I want to make clear is this is not a story that ends well. This is a story that ends very, very badly. But I think the road to badly is much different than a lot of my peers think it is. To get really into the theory, we all know that the central banks of the world injected $20 trillion of new money into the global economy over the last 10 years. And I kind of title this as this is the milkshake that all the different countries created. They pushed down on their syringes, and they injected this tons of liquidity into the market-- euros, yen, pounds, yuan, dollars. And they created this soup or this milkshake of all this liquidity out there. But now, while the rest of the world is still pushing down on their syringes, the United States has-- we've gotten this monetary policy divergence, where we're not using a syringe anymore. We're no longer injecting liquidity. In fact, we've swapped out our syringe for a straw. And so as we lift up on our interest rates, that sucks that liquidity to the US domestic markets. It sucks that liquidity up into our domestic markets. And I think it's going to push asset prices higher. In other words, we're going to drink the milkshake that the rest of the world is still mixing.
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