All Civilizations Follow the Same Pattern

All empires repeat the same cycle, says 20th-century historian John Glubb. He observed that for the past 3000 years every civilization has followed the same 6 stages before decline—what are they?

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[ThinkingWest]

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[X-zv]

The worst of us will always ruin it for the rest of us. And as evil doesn't have a leg to stand on without stupid people buying in, there may not be any hope to escape that pattern. Ever vigilant isn't just a fun thing to say, we literally welcome every horror of human history otherwise

[tomordr]

For the people railing against it because they disagree with the 250 year average, you missed the point of evaluating the stages. Sounded like highly educated people wanting to flaunt their knowledge and arguing about an insignificant sub fact. I found the video interesting and of value.

[Redbird]

Everything in reality has a beginning and an end, a creation and a destruction. Nothing in the physical world stays the same forever, nothing. This includes Empires.

[effervescentrelief]

It also follows the generational pattern as discussed by Strauss and Howe in the 1997 book The Fourth Turning. Every 80-100 years society has some big upset. After a few of these things turn on their heads.

[ivanjoshuamichel]

"...there are times when the perhaps unsophisticated self-dedication of the hero is more essential than the sarcasm of the clever."

Hits hard for our new generation...

[kenfalloon]

I like Mark Twain's quip, ' History doesn't repeat itself but it rhymes'. Historicity is a valuable window on macro human nature but wholly inadequate for the analysis of our present unprecedented predicament

[RedactedBrainwaves]

I have my own theory in which each stage is actually an internal force. All stages are happening simultaneously, but the spirit of the elite can withhold the decay. Once the elite loses their quality and will, these forces which only lied under the surface begin conquering the empire one by one, by order of its weaknesses. Civilizations that never reach imperial splendour can experience these same events out of order, and they can also experience influence from civilizations outside which can help control or exacerbate those forces.

[gregvanpaassen]

If all empires follow the same cycle, we should see the same pattern in East and South Asia too. And Egypt, and in sub-Saharan African empires. Glubb also omits the Byzantine empire, the Norse civilization, Charlemagne's Empire, and the Mongols (Temujin/Ghengis Khan's empire). Sign of a good theorist is when they spend more time on the exceptions than the main pattern.

[matthewspears]

Michael Hudson's latest books are very insightful into the economics behind the fall of empires. Concentration of wealth and the increasing debt of the rest of the people are huge factors.

[DaniG._.German]

Babe, wake up. *ThinkingWest* uploaded another banger.

[Bazanye]

Aside from the inaccuracies and omissions already discussed in the comments there is also a question being begged here. The assumption that empires are a good thing and that we should learn how to prevent their decline.

[courtneybrubaker]

Rufus Fears, a renowned historian and classicist, outlined key reasons why empires fail - reasons that remain just as relevant today.
1. The Decline of Civic Virtue. ..
2. Political Corruption and Loss of Leadership. ...
3. Military Overreach and Economic Strain. ...
4. The Erosion of Cultural Identity. ...
5. The Rise of External Threats.

[harrydeanbrown]

This theory is brilliantly explicated by Toynbee, and I have the feeling that Toynbee's work is the real source of the work by the man featured in this video. (Not to accuse anyone of plagiarism, just recommending that history fans get hold of Toynbee's A Study of History--there is a multi-volume edition and a one-volume edition as well).

[joeaustin]

They should do a documentary about this on tv, Netflix and Amazon prime

[leonrai]

"Civilizations" or more like States/National identities in today's present may fall in cycles, but humanity advances as a whole. A stronger and wider identity grows from the lessons and the research of the previous ones. Institutions have challenges that will require deeper knowledge on how to regulate human memory and emotions through multiple generations. The less we forget the hard lessons of the past to appreciate and develop the present, the longer the cycles can become for such institutions. Yet, as mentioned before, even if they fall, the cumulative consciousness grows. We have a great life ahead of us, and the willingness to make the greatest out of it, helping others and managing the strength to stay kind in a violent world will see us to the next golden era. Cheers, great thinkers of the web.

[mindelo]

There is not a single soul that won't agree that America is on the last stage.

[keeparizonawild]

This explains so much of what we are experiencing here in America

[NickAndriadze]

I almost completely agree with this analysis. Although, the Byzantine Empire is not that good of a comparison for any of the modern world's own ''empires.''
The fact that most of us are sufficiently educated, globalization has taken us over, there are worldwide institutions like the UN overseeing most things and overall Earth feels like a tiny playground that can be traversed in the matter of a single day, implies to me that as a whole, the world could be viewed as one singular, unified empire of Humans, that's in its late stages of Decadence, but there's one big element that's changed — this ''empire'' will continue to tear itself apart, and unlike the Byzantines, no Ottomans will ever arrive to dance atop our corpses and our destroyed cities.

[الصوتالرخيم]

إبن خلدون هو السباق لهاته النظرية التي ذكرها و شرحها في كتابه "المقدمة"