Climate Change Driven Ocean Warming is Making Waves Larger: Why it Matters

Climate Change Driven Ocean Warming is Making Waves Larger: Why it Matters

Since 1948, ocean wave energy has increased by 0.4% per year, due to overall global warming increasing sea surface temperatures and wind speeds.

Also, ocean waves can be 4x steeper than previously thought, when wave models are in 3D versus the more commonly used 2D models. This has been verified by direct observations in a wave tank at the University of Edinburgh.

This means that so-called rogue waves that occurred in the real “Perfect Storm” in 1991 sinking a fishing boat (portrayed in Hollywood Movie The Perfect Storm), sinking the Ocean Ranger oil rig, and the Draupner Wave will be more likely with global warming causing increased ocean warming.

Links:

Extreme 3D ocean waves can reach heights 4x steeper than previously thought

Peer-reviewed paper: Three-dimensional wave breaking

Wave illustrations

Ocean warming is making waves stronger—and that’s a problem

A recent increase in global wave power as a consequence of oceanic warming
Abstract
Wind-generated ocean waves drive important coastal processes that determine flooding and erosion. Ocean warming has been one factor affecting waves globally. Most studies have focused on studying parameters such as wave heights, but a systematic, global and long-term signal of climate change in global wave behavior remains undetermined. Here we show that the global wave power, which is the transport of the energy transferred from the wind into sea-surface motion, has increased globally (0.4% per year) and by ocean basins since 1948. We also find long-term correlations and statistical dependency with sea surface tempera- tures, globally and by ocean sub-basins, particularly between the tropical Atlantic tempera- tures and the wave power in high south latitudes, the most energetic region globally. Results indicate the upper-ocean warming, a consequence of anthropogenic global warming, is changing the global wave climate, making waves stronger. This identifies wave power as a potentially valuable climate change indicator.

Laboratory recreation of the Draupner wave and the role of breaking in crossing seas
Abstract
Freak or rogue waves are so called because of their unexpectedly large size relative to the population of smaller waves in which they occur. The 25.6 m high Draupner wave, observed in a sea state with a significant wave height of 12 m, was one of the first confirmed field measurements of a freak wave. The physical mechanisms that give rise to freak waves such as the Draupner wave are still contentious. Through physical experiments carried out in a circular wave tank, we attempt to recreate the freak wave measured at the Draupner platform and gain an understanding of the directional conditions capable of supporting such a large and steep wave. Herein, we recreate the full scaled crest amplitude and profile of the Draupner wave, including bound set-up. We find that the onset and type of wave breaking play a significant role and differ significantly for crossing and non-crossing waves. Crucially, breaking becomes less crest-amplitude limiting for sufficiently large crossing angles and involves the formation of near-vertical jets. In our experiments, we were only able to reproduce the scaled crest and total wave height of the wave measured at the Draupner platform for conditions where two wave systems cross at a large angle.

Wikipedia: List of Rogue Waves

Hollywood: The Poseidon Adventure

[PaulHBeckwith]

Climate Change Driven Ocean Warming is Making Waves Larger: Why it Matters

Since 1948, ocean wave energy has increased by 0.4% per year, due to overall global warming increasing sea surface temperatures and wind speeds.

Also, ocean waves can be 4x steeper than previously thought, when wave models are in 3D versus the more commonly used 2D models. This has been verified by direct observations in a wave tank at the University of Edinburgh.

This means that so-called rogue waves that occurred in the real “Perfect Storm” in 1991 sinking a fishing boat (portrayed in Hollywood Movie The Perfect Storm), sinking the Ocean Ranger oil rig, and the Draupner Wave will be more likely with global warming causing increased ocean warming.

Links:

Extreme 3D ocean waves can reach heights 4x steeper than previously thought

Peer-reviewed paper: Three-dimensional wave breaking

Wave illustrations

Ocean warming is making waves stronger—and that’s a problem

A recent increase in global wave power as a consequence of oceanic warming
Abstract
Wind-generated ocean waves drive important coastal processes that determine flooding and erosion. Ocean warming has been one factor affecting waves globally. Most studies have focused on studying parameters such as wave heights, but a systematic, global and long-term signal of climate change in global wave behavior remains undetermined. Here we show that the global wave power, which is the transport of the energy transferred from the wind into sea-surface motion, has increased globally (0.4% per year) and by ocean basins since 1948. We also find long-term correlations and statistical dependency with sea surface tempera- tures, globally and by ocean sub-basins, particularly between the tropical Atlantic tempera- tures and the wave power in high south latitudes, the most energetic region globally. Results indicate the upper-ocean warming, a consequence of anthropogenic global warming, is changing the global wave climate, making waves stronger. This identifies wave power as a potentially valuable climate change indicator.

Laboratory recreation of the Draupner wave and the role of breaking in crossing seas
Abstract
Freak or rogue waves are so called because of their unexpectedly large size relative to the population of smaller waves in which they occur. The 25.6 m high Draupner wave, observed in a sea state with a significant wave height of 12 m, was one of the first confirmed field measurements of a freak wave. The physical mechanisms that give rise to freak waves such as the Draupner wave are still contentious. Through physical experiments carried out in a circular wave tank, we attempt to recreate the freak wave measured at the Draupner platform and gain an understanding of the directional conditions capable of supporting such a large and steep wave. Herein, we recreate the full scaled crest amplitude and profile of the Draupner wave, including bound set-up. We find that the onset and type of wave breaking play a significant role and differ significantly for crossing and non-crossing waves. Crucially, breaking becomes less crest-amplitude limiting for sufficiently large crossing angles and involves the formation of near-vertical jets. In our experiments, we were only able to reproduce the scaled crest and total wave height of the wave measured at the Draupner platform for conditions where two wave systems cross at a large angle.

Wikipedia: List of Rogue Waves

Hollywood: The Poseidon Adventure

[susanstewart]

Thank you, Paul… as a layperson, I appreciate your breakdowns… and I feel privileged to live in a time & place when we can learn all about our planet, and the unprecedented changes we’ve been experiencing, over the past few years, especially.
I live in St. Paul, Minnesota.

[SamWilkinsonn]

Even thinking of the open ocean and huge waves gives me the heebie-jeebies. It seems very few climate change impacts work in our favour lol

[Gazr]

I have never or ever will take a cruise.
1 I don't agree with that sort of holiday.
2 They are polluting
3 I would advise making a will out as illnesses and now ever more volatile oceans are a hazard.
Gaz UK.

[darthex]

I'm worried about ice dam's, like what happened in the "Scablands", in Antarctica dumping tsunami's into the southern ocean. Is there any research being done to identify risk?
Because anything of that magnitude, facing Australia, would wipe the place clean.

[stigsrnning]

3D waves not by laminar flow (which is 2D). Seabed rocks are wide and often have flat front - shaped by the water currents + gravel/sand, causing lapping that means less drag, so less loss of energy or power which nature prefers, and more strong water currents will pass the rocks to climb higher into coast vegetation that spesialize in some salty fluid, but the rocks are often removed at beaches, causing extinct ecosystems.
Stronger winds by climate change cause high waves, of course. A flat seabed cause drag and high waves, too. Bottom trawling often involved in shaping flat seabeds. Combinde this and we get higher waves some places than before.
During the ice ages glaciers brought a lot of rocks near coasts, so that could explain The Atlantic Ocean's smaller waves at most places near land.
"It makes sense that it would be easier for a fish to swim against the current of a lapping creek than that of a rushing river."
From internet: Why Fish Scales Aren’t Such a Drag

[-LightningRod-]

rodue waves and invisible whorls, ..its all so very exciting

[JMW-cipq]

@Paul
@~12:00 regarding circular forces: Paul, this would be an excellent segway to a discourse on ocean thermal-mass stratification. This in turn would benefit from including a discourse on atmospheric avg pressure.

[stevenmoyers]

it's climate change making water wetter, quite alarming.

[DanielWatson-vvcd]

I think if we design boats and ships with water tight insulated hulls, plus make water vessels a little wider larger waves wouldn't be a problem.

There's even a way container ships can brace or secure their cargo so they don't loose nothing.

[CandideSchmyles]

Crap. Absolutely no objective evidence this is anything new

[andredecaires]

I'm a surfer living on one of the Winward islands in the Caribbean. The last four years have been the worst years for waves. I hardly surfed this year. The phenomenon you speak of is certainly not happening in the Atlantic east of the Caribbean island chain.

[glike]

This paper is essential for maritime navigation

[Starclimber]

Friends of mine were rock climbing on a seaside crag in West Vancouver when a rogue wave rolled in and completely submerged everyone standing on the ground. They were belaying others on the cliff, and being roped together saved them from the sea.
Far less lucky was this guy (from Wikipedia):
Michael Reardon (May 1, 1965 – July 13, 2007) was an American professional free solo climber, filmmaker, motivational speaker and writer. Reardon died at age 42, after being swept to sea by a rogue wave, shortly after climbing a sea cliff at Dohilla in County Kerry, Ireland.

[maurenemorgan]

KUDOS on the tidy backdrop. Much less distracting than before--and looks more professional.

[AB-wgqe]

OMG!!!! We might as well give up now! am i right or am I right??? Waves are Oh no!!!