The March 2, 2012, Tornado Outbreak: A Case Study

In-depth meteorological discussion of one of the more prolific early-season tornado outbreaks in recent years: the March 2, 2012, outbreak that included the Henryville, IN, EF-4. In this video, we'll do a deep dive into the meteorology behind the Henryville supercell, including why this area within the broad severe risk area ended up being the most favorable for significant tornadoes. We'll also discuss additional supercells that spawned killer tornadoes that ravaged West Liberty and Salyersville, KY, including how they were able to continue to produce significant tornadoes despite outrunning the warm sector.

Chapters:
0:00 Introduction
4:57 Meteorological discussion
38:03 Henryville supercell/tornado progression
41:49 Discussion of West Liberty and Salyersville, KY, tornadoes
51:18 Summary

Resources:

[davidspangler]

I'm a contractor for a living and the number of barns with holes I could stick my fist through was unreal, around the Campton KY area. Was actually working in Prestonsburg at the time, had to drive through salyersville to get to our job sites. Wasn't into weather at all at the time, seeing the damage in salyersville got me addicted to severe weather again!

[JilshieFCB]

This outbreak and the November 17, 2013 tornado outbreak have always peaked my interest. Something about high risk days further North during traditionally colder months just fascinates me. Great video once again!

[laureng]

I look forward to these case studies so much! You deserve way more views/subs. As far as I know you are the only channel that does deep dives into the meterology of tornado events, and I really think that the content you make sets you apart from other channels that don't talk about the meterology

[stephenlenker]

Great work Trey. I feel like this event got swept under the rug quite a bit, which is weird, because there were many parts that made this so unique compared to other outbreaks in the past (high cloud bases, low precipitation storm modes, early in the year) I wasn’t even aware that there was a high risk associated with it either.

[jonasmassa]

Thanks a lot man! I was excited for this case study to come out. I was too young to remember this outbreak but it happened in my home state. Great Video!

[Rhi_wx]

Awesome stuff Trey, as always! Those hodos though 😳

[runt]

Another fantastic case study, Trey, thank you! You touched on it briefly at the end of the video, but the skinny cape and massive shear of this event feels so similar to the severe weather events we've had so far this year. Even though this past week ended up being a bust (I would love to hear your thoughts on the meteorology behind why our enhanced risk really never came to pass!) there was so much shear to play with if the actual thermodynamics and forcing/storm mode ended up producing supercells. As we get a bit warmer and those warm sectors get a bit more predictable, I am certainly a bit concerned about what March might look like if we keep getting these crazy hodographs.

The thing that stood out most to me about this event is how cell after cell you had the most photogenic, textbook supercell definitions on radar, the amount of distance between the tail of the hook where the debris ball was to where the actual precipitation venting was occurring was massive, which I'm sure contributed to how easy it was to get fantastic pictures/video of the tornadoes themselves. There was so much low-level shear pushing that hook further behind the core precipitation. And that it was consistent enough to produce so many of these near-identical cells. It's truly remarkable.

Anyways, thanks again, can't wait for the next one!

[jeffjensen]

Hard to believe that so much time has passed from this outbreak. I remember how unusual it was for long tracked tornadoes in eastern Kentucky’s topography. Lots of very photogenic tornadoes. Thanks for your excellent meteorological review. Your videos are a must watch for severe weather forensics!

[Msalex]

Really cool vid! I’m from salyersville and still live there. I remember when this happened so vividly, I haven’t seen a lot of channels if any cover this outbreak despite it being such a landmark for the area. Great stuff!

[kevinhemmelgarn]

I remember driving home from EKU at Richmond to Louisville around the initiation of the Henryville cells and it was terrifyingly beautiful to see tornado warned supers just stacked up north east to south west just marching across the state. For a second i wasn’t sure if the Henryville cell was going to track through Louisville. My dad recalls the April 3rd 1974 Super Outbreak F4 that hit the city, he took shelter in a service station pit not more than a half mile from the path. Parents windows were blown out it was that close. Thinking back on March 2nd I distinctly recall, unfortunately, people are going to die today. This isn’t normal for the Kentucky/Ohio valley. Knowing more now than i did back in 2012, I’m not surprised it turned out how it did, everything came together for this unfortunately. Thank you Trey for putting some science to this, i remember this day quit vividly.

[ericlarson]

Trey, any chance you could do a breakdown of the May 27 2019 SW Ohio tornado outbreak and Dayton EF-4?

[donniewinter]

One of my fav outbreaks to study even though 2012 was below avg
Good video once again

[dmeemd]

I was actually living in Indiana at this time, near Indianapolis.. had moved back up there for a job/career of a lifetime and it involved a lot of traveling.. shortly after this, we had to drive down south and seeing all the exits shut down off of the interstates just immediately brought my brain back to Moore 1999.. not realizing I would be seeing that happen again coming back to this state in 2013.
Henryville was just evil man…. All those people just getting bombarded by baseball sized while trying to perform rescue or being stuck in the elements while trying to escape or fully in their basements/homes while another tornado was coming..

Not that any of these or every good thing is why so many of us are fascinated by the science and trying to understand these things.. but I am digressing..

Good looking forward to this video of yours for a while! I knew it was, even before I knew, lol :)

Thanks for all you do!! This quickly became one of my favorite channels!! I share it with just about everyone lol

[garretts.]

Hey Trey amazing video once again! If you're looking for another incredible event to cover, the often overlooked May 24, 2011 El Reno tornado may be a good one. Some people rank it above El Reno 2013 and May 3rd 1999 based on it's strength and long track at EF5 damage. I'm also curious how such a long and devastating outbreak occuring over 5 days and producing 241 tornados including 2 EF5's took shape. 2011 truly was wild!

[dmeemd]

Do you have any reference material or anything talking about the absolutely ludicrous windspeed potentials you mentioned while showing where it lifted and chunked pavement?? I had never heard a number that big, but seems valid, so I am just very curious, I’ve been looking into the stuff, my whole life and had not heard that, so I would be very curious to do some more reading or get some more info on that! As always, thank you!!

[VideOH]

Great overview of this event. How about another notable Lower Great Lakes event, May 27, 2019, sometime in the future?

[drgonzo]

I was hoping you would do this one. Great job as always.

[penguinbrony]

OH yes, I remember this day very well. I live up in Christian County, IL and we had a couple of loud hailers that morning. Certainly glad the cold front went through when it did that day.

[carlmay]

39:26. Did I hear that right? Some study says it’s possible for some subvorts to contain winds of 700 mph? I have to have misunderstood something. Right?

[NatashaHoskinds]

We lost the whole farm, house and all in the crittenden ky ef4 . Dump truck driver was killed in our field, as well as our 2 elderly neighbors at the horse farm. And countless head of cattle.. It then went ENE across the ridge and ate Bagby road/Parker’s grove road alive (the photo shown at 41:37) . A very dark day