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The Adjacent Possible: Evolution, Innovation, and Catastrophe

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When we talk about failures in complex systems, we often mention contributing factors and how the right combination of events lead to failure. This often casts major incidents as “Black Swan” events that could have never been predicted or anticipated. But what if we’re wrong?
In his frequent writings about innovation, Steven Johnson uses the term “The Adjacent Possible” to describe how some inventions make other inventions practically inevitable—such as the invention of lenses for eyeglasses quickly leading to the invention of the telescope and microscope. But these seemingly inevitable innovations were inconceivable prior to the developments that unlocked them.
In this session, I’ll discuss how this can also apply to failure. Some catastrophes may be inevitable, unless we step in to prevent them. But how can we work through the complexities of our systems to discover them in time?