What's THE REAL RISK Of Paragliding?

Today in SAFER EVERY DAY we’re talking about the real risk of paragliding and the big mistake the average pilot makes.

Statistics have been drawn from a British Hang Gliding and Paragliding study

This is very broad, because it doesn't show airtime/number of flights/training/rating/typical behaviour/wing/local sites which all dramatically affect your particular risk.

What it does show, is you don't want to be average. Aim for excellence!

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[duckraisedbychickens]

Hi, Greg. Thanks for the video. I am a hobby PG pilot and a full-time doctor. I have a bit of a problem with the numbers on the video. My math is very rusty, so if any mistakes let me know. Here we go,
Given the estimated probability of
- Any flight accident rate of 2% (0.02)
- Serious injury 0.67% (0.0067)
- Fatality 0.05% (0.0005)



So the probability of
- No accident per year 98% (0.98)
- No serious injury 99.33% (0.9933)
- No fatality 99.95% (0.9995)



Then the probability of
- No accident for 30 years is (0.98)^30 = 54.5%
- At least one accident in 30 years is 1 - (0.98)^30 = 45%
- At least one serious injury in 30 years is 1 - (0.9933)^30 = 18.2%
- A fatality in 30 years is 1 - (0.9995)^30 = 1.5%



The numbers are the probability over the while 30 years period (i.e. before you start). You can’t really fly when too young or too old, so 30 years period represent lifetime risk for most people. These lifetime risk numbers are statistics and could be misleading if one is not familiar with statics.


For comparison, the risk that a man will develop cancer of the pancreas during his lifetime is 1.7%. Pancreatic cancer has less than 2% of 10-year survival rate. So, one is unlikely to survive this cancer. Then you should be more concerned about pancreatic cancer than PG death.

Now, these are lifetime risks and have different meanings in different contexts.

Every year the real risk remains the same (Realistically I would assume the number would be high and then drop off, but no data so let speak statistics)
- Any flight accident rate of 2%
- Serious injury 0.67%
- Fatality 0.05%



That's it. Whether you are a 1st year PG pilot, a 2nd, a15th, or a 30th-year PG pilot. Each year the risk remains the same. There is no "compounding" risk as in bank money compounding.

What is the chance of you getting the face with “1” when you toss the dice? 1/6 (16.7%)

It doesn’t matter how many times you threw the dice before. Each time when you toss the dice, it will be 16.7%. Each year flying, the same risk as the first year or any other year.

[catherinespark]

The strange thing, for me, looking in from the outside, isn't that it's high risk. It's that the high risk of paragliding in particular is considered so much less acceptable than other things that carry, perhaps, an equivalent level of risk but are more familiar to more people. Many horse riders would consider paragliders to be bonkers, for example. But horse riding is among one of the most dangerous sports, statistically. Cycling, swimming, skiing, caving and rock climbing, too, and mountaineering most of all, statistically. I think the swimming and cycling would surprise a lot of people. Possibly the skiing, too. I'm not trying to diminish the risk of any of these. In fact, having a healthy sense of caution probably reduces one's risks considerably by making them never forget basic safety precautions. I just don't think mythologising the risk for specific things (NOT saying you're doing this, by the way!) on the basis that they seem less familiar and less instinctive than other activities that are also high risk but more deeply evolutionarily-encoded in us (humans have a millennia-long heritage of swimming and climbing, for example, but not of flying) helps with the representation of the implications of the risk of paragliding in comparison.

[xistsixt]

Just a few days ago... There was news of a guy falling dead in a neighboring paragliding school. Just started my own career. Made me think, yeah right... But the same article linked to many other articles about people dying in atv driving, motorcycling, mountaineering, free climbing, and even hikers... There is risk everywhere, it's the line of life we choose. If you keep yourself in a safe bubble your body would start to rot too. Like you try to explain in the video, practice, practice, practice... Reducing all of the risk factors possible, step by step. Analyzing every error we do. Never stop learning.
Our passion is worth the risk.
Probably this guy visiting you on the hill came out of some industry doing FMEA risk assessment as a job...

[mattklingler]

Thank you so much for helping to increase my odds in keeping myself safe. I really don't like the idea of each flight being a flip of the coin! My goal is to have a very long career with flying and little to no incidents. I look forward to continuing my education with you. Thank you!

[LukeFrisken]

30 years, 1% chance, I feel like in comparison to a person's overall chance of dying to some other much more mundane calamity during that time period (cancer, car crash, etc), paragliding really doesn't seem so bad...

[LittleNoiseBoy]

Adrenaline is, perhaps, part of the addictive quality of flight - but there's a difference between keeping it together by applying practised skills to calculated risks and losing it in blind terror when the unexpected happens. Given this, your idea of a regular Sunday slot reminding us of the need to practise and retain vigilance when flying is inspired and very gratefully received. Thanks Greg.

[surreygraham]

When I was flying hang gliders some 30 years ago a guy gave a very interesting presentation on risk. Once you have passed the initial dangers inherent in learning the sport, the risks you take depends on a couple of things. Firstly, your risk profile. We have all seen the nutters on the hill who think that they are invincible. They are not and usually end up adding to the statistics. The second tends to depend when, not if, you have that first accident. If you have it when you are fairly new to the sport and it scares you then you tend to take more care and that in turn reduces your risk. If you carry on without an incident then you tend to gradually increase the risk you take. If you then have an accident it is often more serious, if not fatal. This is because you have unwittingly moved towards that invincible category and put yourself in a more dangerous situation. Mindset in this sport is absolutely critical and a calm, measured approach will keep you safer than a ‘must get in the air let’s not worry about line checks today’ mindset. Ari in the Air has a great video on this very topic which is worth a view. Thanks Greg for keeping us focussed on this topic and your video on dust devils which highlights my thoughts above.

[theheresiarch]

Have you ever seen anyone break down the incidents by type or are the reports not that granular? For example, in the motorcycling world, we have similar risk profiles, but when you break it down by accident type you realize that you can mitigate huge chunks of risk with simple behavioral changes, e.g. not drinking (AT ALL) before getting on the bike, paying close attention to the behavior of other vehicles on the road and your positioning relative to them, and not carrying too much speed into your turns.

Those three factors (alcohol, inattention, excessive maneuvering speed) are involved in around 80% of accidents, so their mitigation drops the injury rates by a lot. I can vouch for it myself; watching other vehicles like a hawk has literally saved my life on at least two occasions and I've only been riding for three years.

I'm just wondering if there's a similarly simple "making these 1-3 behavioral changes eliminates 80% of paragliding accidents" tactic for risk mitigation here.

[BitTorrentGemini]

After 20 years of (hobby) flying without any incident I felt like I should fly harder.. IMO the biggest risk is when you start believe in yourself too much.

[safranpollen]

31 years flying without any accident. The only worse erperience happened to me 2014 and I wanna report this now for the first time, what has happened to me, , that you can learn of this yourself. I made 2014 with Dani Loritz and his X-dream fly from swizerland after 25 yers flying experince SIV.. First impressions, 30 pilots, overcrowded course. During the first 2 days,
I was mistaken twice during the exercises. Third day of the SIV, I throw, cause I wanted to know, how it is, my reserve. It was windy at the walenlaketaht afternoon . I threw out the reserve after a forced 70% speed colapse. I immediately remarked, the wind speed, cause i saw the rocks beside the lake passing by very quickly. I splashed inside the cold lake. But the reserve didn´t fall into the water, remained in the wind. Before takeoff, I asked several times, should I scotch my airbag that there is no air inside, should I take a cutbeltknife with me. Answer, no, ya don´t need it, the boat will be within seconds beside you. Reality was worse, the reserve pulled me with wind through the lake, the rescuejacket didn´t allow me, to open the chest strap, the airbag started to tun me around. When I was approaching below my rescue to the surface ot the lake, I thought, shall I open already all locks at my harness, so that I can get off quickly away from the glider but I rejected this idea, what a dramatic fault decission ! More and more the filled airbag turned me around. The boat was close by, the guy inside was spain, didn`t speak german and hardly english. After a fight of 2-3 minutes, I remarked, it is getting worse, my forces to turn around get weaker and weaker. The guy in the boat have got order from Loritz, first to safe the rescue, ( not me !!! ) to stop my speed . A worse decision ! He was alone in the boat. Meanhile I cried to him, cut the rescue of, drive inside the rescue with the boat, save my life man, I am drowning. I swallowed first water, cause I was turned around from the air bag more and more and it is pretty hard to turn around to get some air, it is unbelievable, your had is just 20 cm below the surface of the lake but no chance ! I loosed more and more energy, swollowed more n more water . When I get short over the water, there was no more time to cry, just get sum air and again down down down. By the way, I am a real good swimmer. At least I passed by. My last thoughts, hey thats it, you drow, this is the end... Rewaked, when someone, the spain guy was pulling at my harness when I was still inside water, no beside the boat and again passed by. At least I layed inside the boat, apathic, heartrace, spitting water, than slow pulse, dramatic n very serious situation. I heard the guy saying in the radio, the pilot is in a very bad serious health situation.They layed me at the beach down, they didn´t have called a ambulance and said to me, relax, breath slowly. After 30 minutes I could move, shaky, but I could stand. I survived. Loritz cuted/deleted the whole scenery out of the reserve throw at the videos from the SIV, cause he knew, this was a very bad performance of his hyped SIV courses. What was wrong that day, and not only that day, cause they didn`t changed after this anything like I heard from pilots ? !! Nearly all ! My tipps 4 U >>>Never throw your rescue at SIV with a filled airbag, never ever ! Take your emergency safety belt knife with you all times you are airborne !! I am using since that time quick outs but my beltknife is my oartner since 25 years at flying. Check before, if there are, this very important, two ( 2 !!!! ) people in the boat with experience and talking minimum english and thatthey can swimm ! If you have problems, one of the guys can jump beside you and support you. If, in my case, there would have been a second person, he could jump beside me and easily help me not to turnd around, nothing woud have had happened. The boat must have a ladder to get in, supportet from the second guy, the other is controlling the boat, or even much better, a nose, able to be pulled down below the water to get you inside the boat. I didn´t know till today, how this spain guy get me inside alone, . Bit I know, a pilot with equipment gets easily 50 kg more weight ftom water. Ony thing I know for sure, I was to long, a much to long time in this emergency situation only because Loritz has done several dramatic faults: no clear instruction, deinflate your airbag, scotch it, take a beltknife for emergency with you, boat driver unexperienced, only one guy and nearly no english knowledges. I know, this was a unique, special situation, but you see, it can happen, if everything goes wrong. By the way, 1 weak later I struggled down with a heavy back yard heart attack, I only survived, cause it happened in our company with best, perfect emergency help chain. The operator, the dotors said, this accident was proabably the reason but discussing with lawyers and medicine specialist, we considered, not to go to judge, cause it could last years to get a result. I was 4 months out of life, operation, stent, recovery treatments but as soon as it was over, I bought a new glider, a new rescue, new harness and I still fly around the world when ever I can. Cheers from black forest and I please you all, use my tipps, all times beeltknife with you and SIV, of course, but 2 people inside the boat. Dani Loritz never apologized to me, he didn`t give me the money back for one reaining SIV day.meanwhile I have met more people who have had very bad experiences with this guy. I only say this, cause he is acting like he is god and sorry, in my mind, not in cae ot my terrible accicdent, a arrogant and overrated

[Mountain_Manu]

I was in hospital a few days ago - 3 month after starting downhill riding. So i can live quite good with the 1:6 chance in a lifetime paragliding career

[paddlefreestyle]

There is a very interesting article in the DHV Magazin nr 197! The quality of my descisions! Really worth reading! I think we have a great influence on the risk by making smart an right descisions! Not to fly if the conditions are too strong for you even though other pilots fly for example!
Great video Greg!!

[flyinbryanfpv]

I fly paramotor's and ride motorcycles, and I'd feel much safer being in the air rather on the motorcycle.... lot less distracted drivers in the air :) Excellent video.

[gotravelbug]

Thanks Greg, I've been flying for 10 years now. As a woman in this sport in SA and in the Garden Route I found myself very much alone in this sport in the first 6 years, until I had a serious accident. It is only then that I really started learning more and being more ⚠️ cautious and making better decisions due to a paragliding community that pulled together via a WhatsApp group. I'm now loving it more and make better decisions, never forcing a take off, a landing or in flight decision. I guess it's like driving a car and enjoying the ride rather than being a racing driver that takes risks. I hope to enjoy this sport more in years to come.

[wingunder]

We need more reminders like this one. Very well explained! I illiminated the risk of dealing with a collapsible wing, by starting to hang glide. For sure, some other minor risks and inconveniences were added by HG. I'm convinced that the largest and the most lethal risk in PG, remains the collapsible wing. Great channel. Keep going Greg! :)

[GodzillaGoesGaga]

I think in any risky sports activity complacency is the biggest factor (the human factor). Always be sober and always be paranoid (question yourself on every action and situation. What if ???).

[acavemancandoityoutube]

Great Channel! I'm just beginning to look into the sport. Your videos and the comments have been really helpful. I'm 49 yrs old and live in SLC, UT near a popular gliding area that has lots of schools so my access into the sport is pretty easy. The hike and fly options in UT are great. Learning to fly both intrigues me and terrifies me! I'm still on the fence considering the safety, but I already engage in sports the are equally if not more risky so maybe I'm diversifying my risk by learning to fly ;) Thanks for all of the great information!

[kayakell]

Been there done that. Broke my hip on an EUC a month ago. Found out my bones are now too brittle to take a knock now. Bottom line is to recognize when it is time to cease.

[placebogazebo]

Probabilities don't compound like that. Over you entire career, starting from 0, yes, they compound, but if you've made it 30 years, you've already negated those 30 years of risk. They don't count anymore. Each new year starts fresh. Actually, each flight starts fresh probabilities.

[micknolan]

3 week's for was great teaching !