Ukraine War Update (20230418): Full Frontline Update

Here is a run through the frontlines for the Ukraine War.

Books

UA Supporter / Reporting from Ukraine merch:
(or use the code ATP)
_____
YouTube have banned my use of chapters as a result of my suspension. Huge apologies.
0:00 Start
0:10 Kupiansk-Kreminna
4:37 Bakhmut
14:32 Avdivka/Marinka
Vuhledar
21:45 Zap Oblast/Kherson
_____

Maps:

[smith...]

Jonathan M S Pearce .... truly a Legend of The Universe.
Thankyou ❤😊

[stacey_rh]

Thank you Jonathan! This is solid gold for all of us military historians in real time. Best wishes. 🇺🇸🇺🇦

[Flowers_]

Good man - thx for doing all this work for us (me)

[estherkisob]

Thanks for this frontline update. I'm glad you confirm what I had said before, Ukraine has been blowing up house as they leave location in Bakhmut and it's been a good strategy. A few days ago you showed a big explosion that Russians showed in Bakhmut and made it look as if they did it. It was shown on other channels that Ukraine confirmed the building being blown up but said nothing. People said it was blown up by Ukraine. We have to be careful to read into what Russia will show their audience to try and take credit for.

[davidangry]

Blowing up buildings could also be connected to ammo storage that they couldn't remove.

[bobstrayer]

I think Mariupol will be a priority target in the upcoming offensive.

[quasar]

Not a lot of comments at moment I think this is the calm before the storm the offensive is coming Slava, Ukraine

[turboz]

It's the anvil and hammer approach, let the Russians take the buildings just Infront of the Ukrainian lines shoot any that are foolish enough to be out in the open with snipers holding them in the area and then smash them with mined buildings or use bombs on the areas and buildings they've just taken over. It's Hammer time. Ironic that Wagnar are getting hammered. Best crocodile Dundee voice. Call that a sledge hammer, this is a sledge hammer! 😂 Wagner have been attrited so much that the Russian army is having to do the flanking work out in the countryside now. All this whilst they get no rest or rotation, whilst Ukraine has around 30k of troops in the villages further out that they rotate in every couple of days to keep them fresh, clean, well feed and energized and re armed.

[Sophiedorian]

Empires rather pay a price than learn a lesson. That’s my conclusion after having studied Empires: Persian, Roman, Han, Aztec, British, Russian, American, etc. After many generations of imperial citizens have grown up in that mentality, any empire is doomed to fall apart. Look at Bakhmut, Vuhledar, …. Vietnam, and Suez for that matter. When you are big, your ability to ostensibly pay the same price over and over again, is what intimidates the little ones into inaction. The little ones both being your enemy nations at your borders, and your very own citizens. That’s Russia for you. And also, sadly, the oldest part of the population of Ukraine, which have grown up in Soviet times.

[activista]

Re: Arty Green

What concerns me as that this is not the first time we are hearing this criticism, and hearing it the first time is one thing. Or hearing the same thing from multiple sources is one thing. But what we are hearing is both the same thing, from multiple sources, over a period of at least six months. Which means that things are not changing and that is bad.

While Zaluzhnuy (sp) has adopted NATO doctrine, I agree with Green that mid and upper level commanders either struggle to, or something worse, as Green suggestively but correctly puts it.
In conjunction with the above, what Green didn’t say but seems known, is that Sirskey should go. I don’t particularly care where, but he should be relieved of command. I think he is one who is easily identifiable as giving lip service to NATO doctrinal warfare, but in reality, is only halfway there.
Finally, I will say this about Green; I wouldn’t want to sit opposite him at a poker table.

[robertezergailis]

Prigozhin's assumption that more artillery shells can improve the advance of his troops to more than 200 to 300 meters a day is interesting. While it does indicate a definite weakness on the side of the Ukraine forces, that must be remedied, in terms of countering the flawed Russian tactics involved it does indicate how flawed those tactics really are. The Russians make themselves vulnerable, tactically, and the Ukraine forces fail to take fullest advantage of Russian weaknesses, is what we are really seeing happening. It indicates that Ukraine is still too reactive and ad hoc in its defensive posturing against Russia. It cannot be done that way. At least not cost effectively and in terms of capitalizing on enemy weaknesses and reversing gains.

[stuartgraca]

I wonder if the first sign of the counter offensive will be a series of missile attacks on the Russian fleet .

[markusleboschka]

It looks like the Ukranians spent a lot time placing explosives into Bakhmut to make it really dangerous and suicidal for the Russians to advance in that town.
I remember a few day ago they shot one of their very rare Tochka-U missles with a thermobaric warhead into one of the big buildings once enough Russians or Wagner guys had entered it. Then this bridge was blown up in a spectacular way where some people thought an ammo dump had been hit.
They really used their time well to turn Bakhmut into a death-trap without using warcrime methods. By now everyone on the enemy side knows that whatever building you enter is not the safe harbour you think it to be. I don't think the Russian can somehow counter that, that's why they send their 'soon-to-be-dead', their poor penal troops in.
And that might explain why those guys surrender to the Ukranians once they get a chance to do so. Smart preparation here.

[robertezergailis]

The comment about a declaration of incompetence in the field in the Avdiivka region is interesting in another way. If enough other, similar, criticisms were to surface or if they are surfacing, then it could actually evolve into what would amount to being a most probably quiet military coup. There is always that chance of that happening and it cannot be totally factored out. While that is not the best type of regime change that could occur, it might actually prove out to being an improvement in terms of any such outcome. Any improvement being welcome in terms of top leadership and its absurd and entirely destructive policies.

[paulyoung]

As a nod to the US and the UK, I think D-Day will be 6th of June, Slava Ukraini.

[paulyoung]

Igor Gerkin, looking for his Vladlen Tatarsky Moment.

[robertezergailis]

That TOS-1A can be utilized near Kreminna, or anywhere similar, without significant, ideally severe, consequences to the Russians remains a big problem. Ukraine must necessarily achieve the capability of destroying every one of those units when it is put into use by the Russians. There should be absolutely no excuse for not being able to do so and for not doing so. They only have a range of about 6000 metres. That is next to nothing. If Ukraine cannot lock in on those launches of those munitions, and cannot destroy those launchers, every time, they have a problem. A problem they have to solve if they are to succeed. The short range of that weapon and its signature presence gives no real excuse for not destroying them every time. We have been holding back on that troubling point, but it is evident that the criticism needs to be given now that the weapons, munitions and intel situation has improved as significantly as it has. The ability to target those types of systems, entirely effectively, is required in terms of preparations for a counteroffensive in addition to all the other reasons. The only positive note on it is that the Russians do not have a huge number of those units. Reportedly around 20, but the belief is that they have more than that and may be building more. The older TOS, prior to the 1A has even shorter range.

[thierryschmidlin]

ISW claim 32 has not a lot to do with T0504 ...