Vernor Vinge on the Technological Singularity

What is the Technological Singularity? Vernor Vinge, who coined the term, speaks about rapid technological change, offloading our intelligence onto the environment, and the awesome potential of Strong Artificial Intelligence which he says will culminate in the Technological Singularity by 2023.

"Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended." - "The Coming Technological Singularity" by Vernor Vinge, 1993

Vernor Vinge popularised and coined the term "Technological Singularity" in his 1993 essay "The Coming Technological Singularity", in which he argues that the creation of superhuman artificial intelligence will mark the point at which "the human era will be ended," such that no current models of reality are sufficient to predict beyond it.

Vinge published his first short story, "Bookworm, Run!", in the March 1966 issue of Analog Science Fiction, then edited by John W. Campbell. The story explores the theme of artificially augmented intelligence by connecting the brain directly to computerised data sources. He became a moderately prolific contributor to SF magazines in the 1960s and early 1970s. In 1969, he expanded two related stories, ("The Barbarian Princess", Analog, 1966 and "Grimm's Story", Orbit 4, 1968) into his first novel, Grimm's World. His second novel, The Witling, was published in 1975.

Vinge came to prominence in 1981 with his novella True Names, perhaps the first story to present a fully fleshed-out concept of cyberspace, which would later be central to cyberpunk stories by William Gibson, Neal Stephenson and others.

[QuestionMark]

"I, for one, welcome our AI overlords." Rest In Peace Vernor Vinge

[scfu]

"Within thirty years, we will have the technological means to create superhuman intelligence. Shortly after, the human era will be ended."
    —"The Coming Technological Singularity" by Vernor Vinge, 1993

Do we have the technological means to create superintelligence today?
- If so, what is stopping us from creating Superhuman Intelligence?
- If not, what is technology is missing?

[scfu]

Thanks Doug, I asked for both Vernor Vinge's permission and SIAI's permission and both said it was fine.
Here is what Vernor said:
" I am wanting to make a promo video for the Singularity Summit in
>Australia, SingInst might want to use it too. Is it ok with you if I
>utilize some of your comments from the interview you did with them?
Do you mean the interview at the URL you cite below
( singinst dot org/media/interviews)? That's certainly okay with
me.

Cheers,
-- Vernor"

[psmirage]

I feel a genuine sadness that Vernor Vinge didn't live to see the singularity. He will be missed.

[Yessj]

Very interesting points by the always eloquent Vernor Vinge

[tamarapetersson]

Vernir, thanks for allowing me to be your caregiver for the last several months of your life

[ThisIzWizz]

more people should be watching things like this. the concept of reality is an enigma.

[KyleAnimates]

When will I have omnipotent, omniscient, and omnipresent AI since technology will grow hyperbolic? When will our technological progress rise to infinity since technology will advance superexponential?

[threeelancer]

Is there a full version of this anywhere?

[dougwolens]

Adam, I just saw this video. It's not yours. I did this interview for SIAI many years ago. I think you need their permission to show it and edit it as you have.

[flashkraft]

2022 and still no sign of the singularity.
Still something like this is probably inevitable.

[TheGodParticle]

I hope it happens in my time. just to witness mans face as he looks at his final dawn in wonder...

[as]

Oh i wish that Singularity will really happen, because wouldn't it be wonderful if I could merge my mind with all the knowledge that humans have ever gathered. I would be able to instantly calculate the mass of Jupiter or its moons, I'd be able to create music, read Old English etc. Singularity is the only way IMHO how during my lifetime we could have interstellar flight capability. I think people fear it because they think it will be those intelligent robots vs us, while I think (well, not I but other more competent people who have expressed the same idea) it will rather be like us being part robots and part humans, so there won't be any reasons for robots to ''rebel'' against, because we will essentially be the same and will have the same capabilities. 

I don't think that we even need intelligent robots, what we need as a species is something like an advanced version of IBMs Watson, a computer always connected to our brain, that would help us to find right answers when it sees that the brain is struggling to come up with answers. It would be wonderful.

[MsNobody]

Tell that to some YouTube atheists.

Also, what do you specifically mean by calling reality an enigma, and how is this meaning relevant to the outsourcing of intelligence?

[gregalblinger]

um, I hate to rain on your parade but the down side is being ignored, completely as far as I can see. Don't ignore it. It's not to late. Look for it.

[mapleyoga]

Not sure why it doesn't work when I click thumbs down on Allie Quinn's hateful comment. So DISLIKE Allie. If you have nothing intelligent to say, don't say anything. 

[wedas]

Only of Private Ownership of Means of Production is ABOLISHED