Amy Webb Launches 2024 Emerging Tech Trend Report | SXSW 2024

Portuguese and Spanish language translations for SXSW 2024 Keynotes and Featured Sessions presented by Itaú

Join Amy Webb for the launch of the Future Today Institute's 17th edition of its Tech Trends Report and a deep dive into all the tech trends you'll need to follow in 2024. In this mind-bending session, futurist Amy Webb, CEO of the Future Today Institute and professor at NYU Stern School of Business, will provide a data-driven analysis for the emerging tech trends that need to be on your radar this year––and she’ll show you scenarios that will change your perspective on the futures. For those who have attended this session at previous SXSW festivals and already know what to expect from this session, you'll be in for an extra-special treat this year. At the end of the session, you will receive a special SXSW-edition of the Tech Trend Report, which is downloaded 1 million times every year.

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[dwreid]

As someone who has been a part of the "IT industry" since the very early 70s, and someone who has followed the development of AI from the early days of Plato and Shakey the robot, I enjoyed the presentation. It was thought provoking and I hope, engages people in some meaningful conversations.

This video resulted, as it should, in a long conversation with associates about AI and our insistence that we “fix what’s wrong with it” when the real problem is that AI and particularly Large Language Models, don’t “understand” what they do. They predict what might be said next in a conversation based on its observation and analysis of billions of conversations. The art algorithms work in the same way. If you ask for a picture of a CEO you’ll get a young, white, affluent, sexy, man. (and we both know that this is not representative of what the “typical” CEO is) So why do we get such skewed images and textual responses?

AI, at its current state of development is a predictive model based on the data it has been trained on. But where does that data come from? Answer: The Internet and World Wide Web. And what constitutes a large percentage of the conversations and representations on the WWW? Is it “society”? Answer: No. A large amount of the traffic on the WWW and the Internet is:
Advertising
News
Social Media, much of which is amplified agendas
Bots designed to amplify a political or social agenda

This is not reflective of society. It is reflective of some of the worst of society. A distorted view of society based on profit, fear, doubt, greed, hate, … anything that will drive continued engagement.

Advertising skews to attractive imaging to sell a product. When a drug company wants to sell you a drug to treat your HIV, the ads all show super-hot young men, muscles glistening in the sun, shirts off, playing sports. (Subliminal message: If you get HIV you, too, can get hot like this by taking our drugs.) When P&G runs ads for tampons, you will rarely see the actual product. You’ll see women swimming, playing sports, frolicking in a field of flowers while laughing and smiling. You’ll never see them feeling the symptoms of their monthly cycle and the world is in shades of blue and green but NEVER will you see the color RED.

News is, and always has been, driven by fear and loathing. If it bleeds it ledes. (In journalism, the lede refers to the introductory section of a news story that is intended to entice the reader to read the full story.) TV news channels increase viewership by focusing on the things that generate the most fear.

Social Media amplifies hate, bigotry, misogyny. It is where people go to spew the worst of what they think and feel and to mock others who fall down a flight of stairs. When not amplifying the worst, they use it to brag about how perfect their life is. The all-consuming selfie that places each of them at the center of the universe.

And the Facebooks and Twitters (X) of the world struggle daily with managing what percentage of their “users” are, in reality, just bots pushing a viewpoint or an agenda.

None of this accurately reflects “society”. If AI is a mirror of what it’s been trained on, then it’s a fun-house mirror, reflecting a badly distorted version of society, based on the distorted data it’s been trained on.

In short, the only way to fix AI is to fix society. And the risk in not fixing AI is that it will become a powerful tool that ossifies society in its current state, or worse, that it steers society to become the distorted mess that it’s been trained on and believes society to be. And, to put a “cherry on the problem” the development of AI is driven, almost exclusively, by profit. The one who gets to market first wins. They will “fix the problems” later, if they fix them at all. AI safety and AI ethics are, to the big AI companies, just a way to slow down development. We don’t need internal departments or teams to keep a watchful eye on those things as long as we have a few billion customers that can be used as “beta testers” for us. And while they “work out the kinks” we can be sold iteration and “new and improved” iteration after iteration, increasing cash flow in the direction of the corporation.

We are, indeed, at a very pivotal point in society. The problem is that profit has blinded us to the fact that the “roller coaster” has no seat belts, no brakes, and has never been tested. Some of us may die but for those that live… what a ride!

>>Steps down off of soapbox<<

Anyway… just a few thoughts.

[TurikoSanShiro]

seeing this at 6am i dont even know if i wanna get up anymore. amy was an Opra from tech hell today... my so grim! ill watch a Kurzwell video to feel better now..

[carloslunetta]

23:59 - Enough with FUD! Let's enjoy
00:00 - Here's a truckload of FUD

[lerryjee]

I look forward to this talk and report every year! Great talk as always.

[dmswanson]

Useful information; actual clarity (I need a drink).

[neusac.]

amazing and impressive presentation! Congrats!

[MichaelBohemian]

That’s the respectful I’ve ever seen Amy Webb
Usually in more intimate podcast like TWiT she’s just waiting to cut someone off or tell someone why they’re wrong😂

[kaffeeringe]

Great talk! And a wise conclusion: should this amount of power be in the hand of six men?

[smoulder]

btw Emma Webb "Organoids" were first discovered in Japan in 2008 and the Institute of Molecular Biotechnology, Vienna put flesh on that stem cell, not at Johns Hopkins as you stated.

[infinitelives]

What I have trouble trying to understand is the transceiver predicament where teaching in a classroom setting. Paying attention to multiple speakers in a room and conversation response time delays. Five people speak they all get recorded and transcribed and you listen to each according to your perception and reply in to 4 texting and 1 using your voice. It will be confusing so forums and chat rooms and text messages and voice recognition will be in a cypher to share information in real time.

[ricardopenaranda]

I couldn't find the video of the presentation in English.

[LeninaHuxley]

Amy amazing as always.. thanks for the hard work.

[getme.global]

I wished Amy would have gave more ideas on how to oppose better her many bad scenarios. I feel like a value network map will not do it for society.

[GhostintheBand]

This is the place where they warn you that all your hopes and dreams are going to be stolen.

[cassianobasaglia]

I think that the hyperconnectivity has the potential to reveal to us the deep interconnection that exists between all living beings. By visualizing this living web in real time, we will be impelled to act in a more conscious and altruistic way, seeking the collective well-being.

[NeerajSharma-ogpo]

So, I stopped at minute 24 to search for “the biggest tampon brands” (the top two have about 50% market share between them) and then followed that up with a search for images of current CEOs of those two companies. The GenAI images were in line with the reality. We must keep in mind that Bias and Prejudice are two different things.

[dionbiden]

So, I'm having trouble understanding why we are creating AI to the point where it will, or it is, allowed to become authoritarian? Is it progress to 3d print a "working" guitar? Wonder what the sound is like on printed paper and glue guitars? So is the idea now that we've paved over paradise, are losing majority of our magnificent mature and ancient trees, can't drink our well water due to high level of contaminants why not just cover it all up and retreat into VR? Really think there will be/ are people walking in major cities with VR headgear? Is "Alexa put on some music, turn off the light, order
more amazon thingies"etc really worth all the data being collected to target more products to sell you? Even the remote controls from cable company are now voice activated, so it is possible to gather recordings and have AI clone your voice. I'm just trying to see if this transition is worth chasing?

[fernandacolopy]

Is it possible to watch in the original version? (In English). Here is playing with a Portuguese translation.

[yomajo]

Starts about 6:00 after praising people and chit chat BS to warm up the crowd.

[javiasilis]

Wow, she explained at 41:00 the Rabbit R1 better than the 30 minute presentation from the founder.