Case Study: Southern Iowa Tornado Outbreak - March 5, 2022

In-depth case study of the localized tornado outbreak that occurred across southern Iowa on March 5, 2022. This video will focus on the supercell that produced the EF4 tornado that tore a 70-mile-long path from Winterset to Newton, IA, impacting southern and eastern portions of Des Moines along the way. On the surface, this event appeared to be a typical cold-core event; however, there had to be some other factors at play that allowed multiple strong or violent to occur. To determine why this event over-performed, I discuss:

*Model forecasts leading up to the event,
*The background synoptic and mesoscale environment before and during the event,
*How the event progressed, including some of my own experience chasing the Winterset supercell,
*Hypotheses for why this event over-performed when, on the surface, it looked like a typical cold-core event, and
*Analog events, including those that yielded storms with similar rapid tornadogenesis, occurred in the same area, and had similar background environments.

Chapters:

0:00 Introduction
3:02 Model data
10:09 Background synoptic/mesoscale environment
14:53 Event progression: initiation/organization
19:44 Winterset supercell: mesocyclone development, Corning tornado
20:54 Winterset supercell: pre-tornado evolution, increase in hail core size/intensity
24:36 Winterset supercell: tornadogenesis, tornado maintenance
28:10 Chariton and Corydon tornadoes
29:14 Winterset supercell: cyclic tornadogenesis, Kellogg and Tama tornadoes
30:08 Characteristics and evolution of low-level shear
37:35 Topographical influences on low-level shear
41:45 Favorable storm characteristics: precipitation venting, streamwise vorticity current
46:06 Analogs
46:31 Analogs (rapid tornadogenesis): March 28, 2020 (Jonesboro, AR, tornado)
50:15 Analogs (rapid tornadogenesis): May 22, 2011 (Joplin, MO, tornado)
53:59 Analogs (geography): June 7, 1953
55:45 Analogs (geography): June 12, 1976
57:47 Analogs (background environment): April 22, 2020 (Springer, OK, tornado)
59:29 Analogs (background environment): April 23, 2021 (Lockett, TX, tornado outbreak)
1:00:34 Conclusions

[iandouglas]

Fantastic and deep breakdown. I look forward to more of these. Skip Talbot is the only other person I have seen give such detailed analysis.

[RyanMaukStormChaser]

These are becoming my favorite video as of late. As a storm chaser I’ve done a lot of self study obviously..:skip…rich Thompson…etc. these videos really tie it all together. I’ve been watching these on the stairmaster and going to bed to keep the wheels greased. Priceless value. Thanks for all your hard work!

Really looking forward to a possible 6-17-2010 case study 👀 (MN/ND outbreak)

[sageand]

The valley funnel hypothesis certainly seems sound. Looks like several tons of effort and knowledge required to make these. Much appreciated

[matthewwinter]

I live in the northern suburbs of Des Moines and was chasing this beast, and came into the immediate damage path as it past over highway 5 just NE of Norwalk, and some of the trees were partially and others fully, debarked just in the south side of the highway. And of course people were all parked under overpasses just northwest of Norwalk as it was going through the southern parts of that city, blocking the road. I really would love more media and other coverages about the extreme dangers of people parking under overpasses during a tornado, for a plethora of reasons not the least of which includes the blocking of traffic. But this discussion is superb, and well explained!! Historic tornado for sure

[stormcentric]

This is an amazing breakdown; as you started to look at the Emerson cell, I thought, "hey that was the first tornado I was able to observe that day..." and then the pic came popped up. amazing footage of the Winterset tornado, insane evolution and power! Thanks for your energy and fantastic breakdowns, your content is amazing. see you out there!
-Mike D 🌪

[TallyTechandTroubleshooting]

Trey, this was an excellent case study/analysis of that weather event. Going to have to watch a couple times because there is a TON of info! I am sure, after ingesting this, I will have questions. You really are a fantastic meteorology educator as you have a unique way of making meteorology/weather logistics understandable/comprehendible without watering it down as to loose it's significance. It is GREATLY appreciated and stay safe out there!

[makrothlovesguys]

You should really post more of these videos. I could watch these all day so interesting.

[dirtytreerat]

So much depth and quality going into such a unique tornado event especially only 13 days after the event. Great work I can't wait to see more case studies!

[vivlund]

This was fantastic, Trey. Thanks for taking the time to make these videos- I learn so much from each one.

[hazlogen]

I know this was posted a while ago but this storm event was particularly memorable for myself. I was working at the airport at the time and March 5th and March 6th are days I'll always remember. The 5th, the severe weather which produced this tornado, and then March 6th, we had a surprise snowstorm the day after the tornado. We had a flight divert due to weather on the 5th as well so it was a late night at work that's for sure. Thank you so much for the meteorological dive into this event. You sir get a like and a sub! :)

[zachmazza]

Very informative you know what your talking about and this is national weather service quality. Reminds me of Skip Talbot. Keep up the good work man subbed.

[GenericPast]

We got stuck under the hail core near Orient and one of the haunting things afterwards was seeing all the dead birds in the fields.

[williamtrakas]

Amazing the amount and quality of work you put into these vids. Much appreciated!

[RobertoTehJon]

Just got this in my recommended, really enjoyed this breakdown. Very interesting event and glad this showed up in my recommended. Earned a new subscriber and I look forward to more from you :)

[iselfnoone]

Great video. The topographical analysis is super interesting and isn't covered very often.

[TAStormChasing]

Another informative case study. Keep them coming! Also, it is wild how that storm in the 412pm picture went to produce that large tornado in such a short time. It doesn't have the look.. Have a good one 👍

[swalchliwx]

Excellent study on this event, I learned a lot of useful information amount that would have been very helpful while actively chasing this event. I managed to get stuck in the conga line behind the Winterset wedge but I was able to break away and catch back up to the storm before is produced the Tama EF2. I would have had some really good, close range video of the Tama tornado but I was alone and testing out a new camcorder that switched back into auto focus on me, ruined all of the video I got. I was on Hwy 63 and it crossed easily less than 250 yards in front of me.

[Stable]

Can you do a case study of 4/27/11? I’d love to see an in depth video on that environment

[silky]

Phenomenal piece of work Trey, a really great resource with wealth of information in it. Thank you so much. I loved that use of the hodograph superimposed on the radar with the RM motion on the origin, such a neat idea!

[ruthlerohl]

I grew up in Iowa. Thank you for the deep dive.