Inside China’s Property Collapse (Evergrande Disaster)

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Producer: Dagogo Altraide

[chiragmodha]

In any economic collapse, only common people suffer.

[thegrayyernaut]

One of the factors contributing to the "overcounting" problem in China is likely the fact that authorities often chase results and numbers. Bigger numbers = bigger praise and rewards for officials.
I would know. I'm a Vietnamese. The authorities here love chasing numbers for rewards from the government.

[DaLT]

Around the early 10s, when I was an American high schooler, I read something about how there was all this massive investment in real estate in china, even when houses were just staying vacant. With the subprime mortgage crisis fresh in our minds, I had a feeling I'd be hearing about this again in the future, and in a bad, bad way.

And lo, here we are. Time is a flat circle.

[Drought-jrpb]

I'm surprised you did not mention the central government targeted GDP rate that the rest of the province/territories have to meet at any cost. Which also includes provincial government using the sale of land to developers to drive their GDP targets and extensive infrastructure projects that have little to no purpose. Which also drives the Provincial debt higher, and this debt is far greater than that of the developers.

[leoli]

Important difference about buying a home in China: the buyer start paying the mortgage as soon as they buy, NOT when the home is completed and the sale is closed. So the buyers have been paying mortgage for a home with no completion timeline in sight...some have been paying for years.

[luckylanno]

When a person tries to control every aspect of a society, then that society will only be as strong as that individual.

[robin]

It is truly concerning when the biggest real estate developer, Country Garden, fails to repay its creditors or deliver the housing units it promised. It's really really bad when the largest state-owned financial firms, Zhongrong, cannot repay their investors because their investments haven't paid them back yet... the dominos have started to fall.

[LotharTheFellhanded]

What is the evidence that Evergrande was planning based on the population growth estimates? It seemed more like they were simply in a real estate bubble because everyone kept buying properties as investments and they could get the loans to keep it going.

[me]

When an entire economic sector is based on extreme leverage, and you manage to piss off both the regular person AND the bigwigs, well, what do you think is going to happen? It's not a matter of if you'll fail, or even when. The question to be asked is, "what will fail first?"

[Kiddio]

The fact that you separate the human people who have been affected away from any preconceptions about the CCP/China is one of the reasons I love this channel.

End of the day, your average human has lost thousands of their money hoping to invest in their own future on promises sold to them.

[glennrush]

Cold Fusion is one of the best narrators on YouTube, period!

[CreativeCutlet]

Its funny how they do so much surveillance and still got the population numbers wrong 🤣

[chrimony]

You can't blame population estimates when ghost cities were dotting the countryside. This was an obvious bubble.

[somerandomfella]

Country Garden their 2nd biggest developer is also about to collapse. Get ready for another financial crisis..

[wildfotoz]

You kind of touched on it at the end of the video. I watched a documentary on this a while back....maybe on the DW Documentaries channel. The biggest problem is that the population was expected to start paying on their mortgages before the construction even started on their home. In a lot of cases they was a year or more in advance and to had gotten to be the norm for the way the real estate market worked in China. The population had enough and just stopped paying their loans so they would go into default. That's what really killed these companies.

[LoneCanadianPoet]

I think that in actuality China has probably skipped on taking census counts on millions of non-hospital/non-counted rural births, and those births are possibly more low-income than medium-wage. Then you have real estate ready for a population to own or rent housing but the population they were counting on are extremely low income to lower income than able to afford such investments into urban properties. There are probably millions of female births being unaccounted for and if so, they are all in the rural areas and can not afford the overdevelopped real estate in urban areas anyways.

[ScottCooper]

David Attenborough asking a simple question leading to all of this is some Butterfly Effect level stuff

[richardwafulaluis]

I get so excited for each episode of Cold Fusion...Kudos Dagogo I learn a lot from this channels 😊

[Reinturtle]

The miscalculation that lead to the one-child policy may prove to be one of the worst politically sensitive mistakes in history 😬

[alexv]

The role of property sales in local government finance should not be underestimated. Local governments are obliged to share a major part of their tax revenues with the central government, which means that they're generally unable to afford to do the basic work of government on their own, much less meet Beijing's enormous economic growth targets, or handle emergencies like for example mass covid testing expenses. The solution they came across are Local Government Financing Vehicles, shady semi-state-owned companies that sell land to developers to raise revenues, which means that local governments have massively invested themselves in the construction and real estate markets in order to function, while also using their power to encourage overconstruction, then used their overconstruction to claim high GDP growth, which prompted Beijing to push for more growth, rinse and repeat. This problem is coming to a head this year, and will only get worse as consumer demand stays low into the medium and long term.