Did Ukraine blow up the Nord Stream pipelines? | Quick Take | GZERO Media

If it's a Ukrainian organization, the Ukrainian government probably, at some level, knew about it.

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take:

Hi everyone. And have you seen the latest news on Nord Stream 1, 2? It has been months since that pipeline, those pipelines were destroyed, were sabotaged, and we haven't had any information on who's behind it. Been big questions. Why would the Russians blow up their own pipelines? I've been skeptical, and the investigations that the Europeans have been engaged in, no evidence whatsoever. There was this piece by Seymour Hersh that I looked into pretty closely, one anonymous source claiming the Americans and the Norwegians were behind it. That turned out to be not standing up on its facts on a whole bunch of pieces of ostensible evidence brought in the piece. But now we have a New York Times piece that's come out with direct sourcing from US senior officials, including intelligence officials, claim that there is evidence that a Ukrainian organization was behind the explosion.

Now, I want to say, first of all, that was my view over the last few months, is if anyone was likely behind it would probably be Ukraine. And the question is, would they have the capacity? Because the interest was certainly highest. They are the ones that desperately want to ensure that the Russians don't continue to have leverage to potentially drive a wedge around European support and get that gas flowing again from Russia into Germany and into Europe.

Now, they're big questions given the level of sophistication that would be required in pulling off an attack like that, and also doing it without any fingerprints at all in terms of the investigations and the intelligence, would the Ukrainians be able to pull it off? So they're very interested, but could they actually do it? And the view was, well, maybe not. And I would've said no, except for some of the other attacks that we've seen the Ukrainians pull off, like blowing up the Kerch Bridge from Russia to Crimea, which I was quite surprised to see them be able to do. As well as the assassination attempt that almost happened against Aleksandr Dugin, instead killing his daughter, and only because she decided at the last minute to take the car that he was meant to be in, and that was just outside Moscow.

So the Ukrainians have shown more capacity than a lot of people have believed, but still lots and lots of questions here that are going to need to be investigated. One is this Ukrainian organization, this outfit, an extremist group, do we believe that they were operating by themselves or did they have direct support/complicity of the Ukrainian government? It's hard to imagine that such an attack would've happened and the Ukrainian government had no idea. And I say that in part because of funding and in part because of the impact that it would have, and so you're potentially doing a lot of damage to Ukraine's position vis-a-vis the Europeans, even the Americans, if you get away with it. Why would you take that kind of a risk as an organization ostensibly supporting Ukraine unless the government was behind it? Also, would you have that kind of capacity without direct governmental support?

So one would expect that if it's a Ukrainian organization, the Ukrainian government probably at some level knows about it, probably at a high level knows about it. Let's keep in mind that despite all of the support from the United States, and it's been incredible, the military support, the economic support, Biden's trip directly to Kyiv, that there's not a lot of trust between the United States and Ukraine at the highest levels. There's a lot of alignment. There's a lot of belief that the Ukrainians need to be able to defend their territory and beat back the Russians. There's a lot of respect with Zelensky's courage and his ability to lead his people over the last year of war. I mean, really facing death himself on a daily basis on the ground in Kyiv. He's enemy number one for Putin and the Kremlin. No one wants to be in that position, and yet Zelensky has been. But that's not trust.

#QuickTake #Ukraine #NordStream

[tonywilson]

I'm an engineer but watch a lot of economics on YT because I want to know how to deal with them. People like Ian Bremmer are pretty good at explaining economics. *WHAT THEY ARE HOPELESS AT IS EXPLAINING TECHNOLOGY.*

At 1:51 he asks _"would the Ukrainians be able to pull it off?"_

From an engineering and logistics point, *NO* and that has been discussed by many including military people.
1) Ukraine has no direct access to the Baltic Sea.
2) Ukraine has no submarines of its own.
3) This is NOT a Bridge or a drone dropping an incendiary onto a tank. This is an undersea pipeline AND SO YOU ALL KNOW. These are not simply pipes to help them sink and stay in place at the bottom of the sea they are encased in concrete. So to blow up a section of these sorts of pipelines is several orders of magnitude above blowing up a bridge. This is at the pinnacle of underwater demolition. *The number of nations and people capable of that skill set at those depths is very limited.*

[rafasoares]

I am sorry, but still… one thing is Ukraine planting bombs in cars and blowing things up. Any guerrilla group can do that… the level of sophistication that someone must have to plant multiple bombs on a pipeline, dozens of meters under the Baltic Sea, evading surveillance, blow them up almost simultaneously is something at a completely different level. Ukraine barely has a navy.

[marcusmcewen]

Ukraine has no coastline on the Baltic Sea, no submarines, and no real navy . How did they do this by themselves?

[trogdortpennypacker]

Both stories rely on unnamed sources, but Hersh has better connections and pedigree. Plus the Hersh story is more realistic.

[hoareg]

The Ukraine blew up the main gas supply to Germany and still demanded Germany to fully support them? I don’t think so. Also comparing the Kerch bridge attack to the Nord Stream is quite lame to be honest. The Kerch bridge attack was a tremendous feat but it’s just a matter of intelligence and coordination (basically blew up a truck at the same time as a train carrying fuel was passing by to maximize the effects). The attack on Nord Stream was on a whole new level, technically and operationally much more challenging that only one or two most technically advanced countries can do it and one which can convene the help of nearby countries like Norway to operate or cover it.

[rodrigomohr]

It is obvious that the US government did it! 🤣

[willkmc]

I don't believe that Ukraine has ability to explosive Nord Stream pipelines.

[mvonwalter]

Sorry, this just doesn't pass muster. I don't see Zelinsky having the material support to do an operation like this without at least a NATO member state being involved. The Kherson bridge operations was a simpler target and even then a partial failure. The attempt on Dugin was just sloppy terrorism, not a Baltic sea operation on 3 targets.

All the sabotage attacks carried by renegade Cubans turned out to be US coordinated. There are plenty of examples of US handlers processing reasonable doubt because they didn't actually undertake the operation but provided all the material/immaterial means to do so. I just don't see anything so far that rules out US coordination especially considering US intel is driving field operations in Ukraine (and had been even before the invasion).

[mclarenf]

C'mon Ian. Being a smart man doesn't mean everyone else is dumb. This has USA written all over it.

[TonyTouch]

Nuland and the gang getting nervous 😬 I’m afraid this fairytale won’t make it better.

[shuili]

Schulz: I was told by president Biden that it was some very talented Ukrainian divers who did it.

[jankopandza]

nope it was the USA and Norway . any other questions ?

[BB-bvuq]

The United States did, the US Navy was there right before it happened...

[xyz-uwps]

Packing a truck full of explosives or assassinating one person (unsuccessfully) are really *not* impressive feats that demonstrate the ability to sabotage an underwater pipeline almost 1000 km away.

They would have had to launch the attack from a friendly European country, almost certainly with their consent, at which point it's not really the Ukrainians doing it in any meaningful sense.

And the risk of being discovered and losing support wouldn't be worth it.

My money is still on Russia.

[Seanw-ijyx]

imagine trying so hard to push the 'ukraine blew it up' story line and not getting some of that sweet sweet CIA money for your efforts.

[anthonyrossi]

When top politicians give you access to them and insight into policies etc. like Ian gets, you might get asked to make a video like this to shape opinions. I was rolling my eyes 30 seconds in. I’m glad the pipeline is down and I really don’t care who did it! 🇺🇦🇺🇸

[lamina]

I have been asking the same question since the Nordstream pipelines were destroyed. Where is the forensic information from the pipeline after the explosions? This information will determine if the source of the explosions came from inside the pipeline or from an external source. This requires a simple analysis of pipeline remnants. If the source was internal then the Russians did it. If it was from an external source then analysis of who had access, time to plant the explosives, and the type of explosives used will narrow the field of possible parties involved. However, to date I have not heard an answer relative to the source (internal of external) of the explosions.

[AH-iucw]

Who benefits? Ukraine certainly, the US? Most definitely. Proxy wars have proxy actors, arms length deniability is important so that the Europeans/British citizenry don’t start looking for someone to blame for their current impoverishment.

[peterbustin]

This gets more and more like the times before WWI every day. Things will really get going in mid May. We aint seen nothing, yet.

[brankaklinec]

All l can say if it was Ukraine then good on them. I think the Ukrainians has proven to be highly intelligent, competent and resourceful people. If Nato and the U.S, would have just 10% of the resolve and smarts that Ukraine has they would give them everything they need to put an end to this war and of Putin too. Instead Zelensky pretty much has to beg daily for the supplies they need, The Ukrainian army has proven they are better in every aspect than the Russians so why no let them finish off the Russian military and be done with this war, and see what the complacent Russian people think about their great leader who has basically murdered the present generation of young men.