Brexit - Too Hot to Handle in the General Election?

John Stevens and Brendan Donnelly discuss the implications of the General Election’s results for relations between the UK and the EU. They warn that the Labour Party will not gain much purchase in Brussels by the simple fact of not being the Conservative Party. They conclude that British politics are in flux and that changing political attitudes towards the European Union are at the heart of this volatility.

SPEAKERS
Brendan Donnelly is the Director of the Federal Trust and a former Conservative MEP.

John Stevens is the Chair of the Federal Trust and an analyst and commentator on economic affairs.

ABOUT THE FEDERAL TRUST
The Federal Trust is a research institute studying regional, national, European and global levels of government. It has always had a particular interest in the European Union and Britain’s place in it. The Federal Trust has no allegiance to any political party. It is registered as a charity for the purposes of education and research.

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Prime Minister Keir Starmer holds first press conference
06/07/2024. London, United Kingdom. Prime Minister Keir Starmer holds his first press conference at 10 Downing Street. Picture by Simon Dawson / No 10 Downing Street
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Prime Minister Rishi Sunak visits FCDO Crisis Centre
25/04/2023. London, United Kingdom. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak visits the Crisis Centre in the Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office to speak to staff working on the ongoing situation in Sudan. Picture by Simon Dawson / No 10 Downing Street
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[johnnylind]

Brexit was a big blunder, and nobody wants to talk about that . Its a big job to fix it, and will take a decade to undo .

[keacoq]

Thank you for that video. for me it was a useful overview of the lection and its aftermath.

I think Labour did not discuss Brexit because the party is pro-Brexit (including because of its lack of criticism) while its voters are often anti-Brexit.

Silence on Brexit allowed this conflict to remain hidden.

[crackerbarrel]

You guys did well in the recent general election, now field even more candidates for the next general election, like 80+ candidates. This time win some seats and the momentum will be with you. The EU is the future. Good luck! We're with you.

[matchbox]

Some of the best analysis of the election I have heard, and I have watched so many channels and read lots of commentators.

[davidpearn]

There is no chance as long as the Tory Party maintains it's antagonistic anti-europe attitude . They need to front up to their ownership of the disaster to the SMEs who have suffered from their lack of leadership.

[johnmckie]

I’m one of many who are not pleased with KS’s stance on Europe. I hope he changes his mind as the ‘make Brexit work‘ idea is Horlicks at least in an erudite forum such as this.

[ConorHanley]

A choice between an American or European UK at the moment isn't much of a choice given pretty much the entire European political class has been taking for a ride by the Americans and they have been more than willing to undermine Europe's future for the sake of American interests. In truth not even that, a hopeless attempt to hold back the inevitable.

[johnnixon]

Labour knows the road back to Europe has a major problem. That problem is the Conservative Party and Reform UK.
In order for any country to be considered for EU membership there must be broad political agreement in the country on the desire to join. It is not in Labours' power to make the Conservatives and Reform want to rejoin.
So they are powerless to deliver rejoining. What they can do though, is everything possible to reduce the disadvantages of being outside the EU.
What Labour promised to do was what they could deliver, not what was out of their control.

[johnjeanb]

Quite right, we are surprised (in the EU) by K.Starmer prediction "not to join the EU in his lifetime". He seems to believe that the TCA is open for negociations when IT IS NOT (only minor adjustments scheduled for 2025 provided it suits the EU). Surprisingly the UK has not learned the lesson that access to EU is not like entering a patisserie and cherry-picking things. Truth is Yes joining some programs may help BUT the key access to the SM and CU is off the table unless joining and complying with all requirements.
The UK fails to see that the EU once made a zillion specific deals with Switzerland and regretted it. The EU is still spending a lot of energy to CANCEL the swiss agreement and replace it with a more standard one (Norway-like).
France has not forgotten the dirty trick the UK played for AUKUS and the evasive Australian subs, reminding that "Perfid Albion" is never far away from a stab in the back and of course this goes for the defense industry so do not expect anything there.
Does this mean that the EU is Anglophobe? Of course not but "Chat échaudé craint l'eau chaude". (Burned cat is weary of getting burned again) so count on the EU & members to be extra-vigilant to verify the motivation of the UK and its acceptance of all the EU project. Anyways a join application will not be considered unless BOTH most important UK parties support it so there will be lots of water under the bridge (maybe Starmer is right after all)

[greggbisgrove]

We have a PM who on record of saying there will be no return to the EU in his life time .

[frankoneill]

Sinn Féin do not own the question of reunification in Ireland, and the absence of SF in any future government in Ireland won't alter the drive to reunification. In Belfast in mid June at an Ireland's Future event Leo Varadkar said the next government should push harder for a united Ireland, taking reunification from a political aspiration to a political objective.

[stephenhardy]

6:35 The UK can and does leverage its limited military/intelligence capability in, through and by means of its valuable relationship with analagous US defence power.

[powerjets]

Gentlemen. The assumption was that the voting system remains and no mention of the greens and younger voters. Can you please address.
Also shall we wish Starmer a long life and Biden a visit from god?

[edwardanthony]

When interest rates were small it was the time to borrow and spend on infrastructure, it didn’t happen. With a large majority it is time to take significant action. Instead and sadly Sir Starmer will hunker down and be the new Mr Cameron.

[rnanerd]

This could be an opportunity for the lib dems in 2029, ie to present themselves as the genuine rejoin party

[rebecca_noble]

There's no "hostility to brexit". "rejoin eu" didn't get better than 1.8%

The average was 0.78%