MCC Votes & Seats Podcast: 2022 French legislative election

As the hugest surprise of the French legislative elections held on 12 and 19 June, Emmanuel Macron’s centrist party coalition Ensemble failed to ensure an absolute majority in the National Assembly. In the meantime, the left-wing alliance NUPES – led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon – was able to deliver a better than expected result with 31.6 percent of the votes and 131 seats from the available 577 in the National Assembly. Similarly, Marine Le Pen’s populist right-wing Rassemblement National achieved a historical success with more than 17 percent and 89 seats. Thibaud Gibelin, visiting fellow at the MCC stressed that Macron is having a hard time because he has to negotiate beyond party blocs to create a majority. After his win in the presidential elections in April, he campaigned with massive confidence, which could raise some antipathy among voters. The researcher argues that Macron will likely be able to ensure a majority with votes from right-wing republicans (even if not in an official coalition, but in the form of ad hoc external support). However, Macron and the thus supporting MPs and party will surely pay the political price of such support. Even if he can avoid cohabitation, the re-elected president will have a tough term, because voters expect the improvement of public security and the economic situation. And the latter is going to be extremely difficult seeing the current economic developments in both Europe and the world. Szabolcs Janik, researcher of the Centre for Political Science at MCC talked with Thibaud Gibelin in the latest Votes & Seats podcast.